PREVIEW | Amstel Gold Race 2025 - Tadej Pogacar for the solo win or will van Aert, Pidcock and Evenepoel be able to put on a battle?

On April 20th, the peloton engages in the third of the Ardennes classics with the Amstel Gold Race, kicking off with its customary long and hilly route through the Limburg hills. We preview the race ahead.

As always, a race of endurance. Taking place in the hilly area around Valkenburg, it's a race that doesn't feature a single long ascent, but instead dozens of small climbs. There will be over 3100 meters of climbing in what is the most gentle of the Ardennes, but it's a race for the classics specialists - both puncheurs and those who typically thrive in the cobbled classics as well.

256 kilometers on a menu. A test of endurance, a race that features small but repetitive climbs in Limburg to make for what is one of the most unique days of the season. It is the first of the three Ardennes classics, and the one that suits the most the rouleurs and riders who are coming straight from the cobbled classics campaign.

Climbs come thick and fast throughout the whole day, it is unlikely that serious action will come before the final hour though as it will be crucial to spend as little bullets as possible In order to have the legs towards the finale.  

Gulperberg (47Km to go; 60mm at 6%), Kruisberg (42.5Km to go; 700m at 7.3%), Eyserbosweg (40Km to go; 1.1Km at 7.6%), Fromberg (36Km to go; 1.7Km at 3.8%) and the Keutenberg (31.5Km to go; 1.6Km at 5.2%) will set things up and may see some attacks. Both in anticipation of the Cauberg, but also as some of the main favourites may find the right timing to make a move. Every climb provides an opportunity, and in these 16 kilometers you’ll see a lot of action off the front as it’s very hard to control.

The Cauberg comes with 22 kilometers to go, it’s the climb that used to close off the race and this year it will once again be - however not on this lap. 800 meters at 6.5%, which then see a set of rolling roads where to make differences will be very complicated. The riders takckle the Geulhemmerberg (900 meters; 5.7%) with 17Km to go and then the Bemelerberg: Just 500 meters at 5.6% with 11.5 kilometers to go. It used to be the final climb, but now should be a transition moment once again.

This year the route returns to it's more traditional finale, still ending in Berg en Terblijt but right after the Cauberg. There will be a very fast descent leadingt into the climb which summits with 2 kilometers to go. The last chance for the climbers to make a difference, although the final stretch to the line does still provide the opportunity for moves if there is a group.

Some southwestern wind, which won't affect the day too much. However, in the eventuality that it will come down to a battle in the final kilometers, it could see a headwind on the Cauberg and a cross-headwind in the final kilometers.

Tadej Pogacar - The question is usually how Pogacar will win. With Jhonatan Narváez, Tim Wellens, Brandon McNulty and Pavel Sivakov present the World Champion would honestly not really have many difficulties keeping the race controlled until the final climb and then try to make the difference. However that's not necessarily the best strategy, taking into consideration he can be matched in that effort or be surprises. Likely, as he does, he will attack from far and try to take a solo win as he did two years ago - whilst his teammates can cover counter-attacks and fight for their own results.

Wout van Aert - Visma will have learnt from mistakes of recent weeks and certainly they will not start with a sole leader. Wout van Aert won't demand that, and on such a race it doesn't make sense either. He and Tiesj Benoot planned their preparation towards Flanders perfectly and showed their best level there. Of course, with a Pogacar at the start it will always be difficult to win, but Benoot can be in key attacks without being covered, whilst van Aert is also carrying great form and is absolutely a podium contender in this specific classic.

Tom Pidcock - Q36.5's sole leader and card to play. However the pressure won't be on his shoulders, but instead several other teams, as has been the case in other races this far this year. We've seen the best Pidcock once again this year and he's been mighty impressive. If he is again at the level he showed at Strade Bianche and Tirreno-Adriatico, a podium is quite likely even.

Thibau Nys - Perhaps controversially, but I would say that Nys is the only rider in the peloton that currently has the explosivity to match a van der Poel and Pogacar on climbs like this. In Flèche or Liège no, in Amstel yes, we will not have brutal or very long efforts. The Belgian looked incredible on the final stage of Itzulia and won the GP Miguel Indurain unmatched. He should be ready for the Ardennes, and if he is at the right place at the right time, he can be the one rider to match the rainbow jersey. Mattias Skjelmose, Andrea Bagioli, Toms Skujins and Quinn Simmons provide plenty cards for Lidl-Trek to play in a tactical race.

Remco Evenepoel - The form won't be perfect but Evenepoel in any condition will be competitive. In a regular scenario he would have good chances of fighting for victory, it's his kind of race... Now, getting more rhythm, but for sure he can be towards the front by the end of the race. Soudal-Quick-Step have other cards to play with Max Schachmann and Ilan van Wilder.

Axel Laurance - The INEOS rider showed strong enough form at Itzulia to be considered one of the main favourites. A young rider, but capable of handling long distances, and with INEOS backing him up he can do very well in these explosive efforts. Magnus Sheffield could potentially also be a very interesting outsider.

Ben Healy - At Itzulia Ben Healy also returned to his very best level. Again, without a Pogacar, the Irishman could win here - specially if he got a solo gap at some point. As it stands though his traditional tactics shouldn't net him a win, but a place amongst the best is definitely possible. Neilson Powless and Marijn van den Berg will also be good outsiders for such a course.

This is a race with such a luxurious startlist and riders that are carrying incredible form. From Itzulia we saw impressive rides from the likes of Alex Aranburu, Clément Champoussin and Simone Velasco who could really carry that form and surprise into a podium.

We've got from Paris-Roubaix a Fred Wright that is finally back to his best level once again; we've got men who can sprint very well such as Michael Matthews who still seeks a victory in a race where he's been close countless times, Corbin Strong or Quinten Hermans; Teams with depth such as Red Bull with Roger Adrià, Finn Fisher-Black and Maxim van Gils; Tudor with Marc Hirschi and Julian Alaphilippe; Bahrain who besides Wright have Santiago Buitrago and Pello Bilbao; Israel who besides Strong have Alexey Lutsenko and Joe Blackmore...

Bastien Tronchon, Quinten Hermans, Ben O'Connor, Dylan Teuns and the returning Christian Scaroni are amongst the several other riders that should be considered to chase a result.

*** Tadej Pogacar
** Thibau Nys, Tom Pidcock, Axel Laurance, Ben Healy, Jhonatan Narváez
* Mattias Skjelmose, Remco Evenepoel, Tim Wellens, Tiesj Benoot, Max Schachmann, Magnus Sheffield, Neilson Powless, Roger Adrià, Maxim van Gils, Julian Alaphilippe, Marc Hirschi, Santiago Buitrago, Gianni Vermeersch, Michael Matthews, Clément Champoussin, Alex Aranburu, Simone Velasco

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

How: I think the Slovenian will indeed be able to attack from far and make the race-winning difference there.