The Tour de France has thus far only seen Jonas Vingegaard beat Tadej Pogacar once. Today on stage 19, with brutal climbs and long altitude, we have got what is likely the last realistic opportunity for the Dane to drop his rival. But Team Visma | Lease a Bike are not unrealistic, they know that the key to beating the yellow jersey isn't down to the tactics at this moment but instead of actually being stronger.
The climb features notably the 2800-meter high Cime de la Bonnette at the top of a 23-kilometer climb and this really is the moment where Vingegaard has to test his rival to the maximum, as all other remaining climbs in the race should suit the Slovenian better with lesser gradients and without the altitude factoring in so much. This isn't a day for explosivity, where we know Pogacar is superior to the competition.
“If we see that Pogačar has a weak moment on the Bonette, then for sure Jonas goes there. We’re always confident, especially because Jonas is still feeling quite ok and the team is feeling good." DS Grischa Niermann told CyclingWeekly. "I think the team has been going a great job the whole Tour in terms of tactics, the way we ride together, the cooperation, and of course we’re confident.”
On stage 15 Visma executed their plan to perfection and Vingegaard rode one of his best ever performances on Plateau de Beille; but Pogacar was stronger on the day. He was able to make big differences to the rest of the competition there, and likely the plan will be similar with Visma pushing the pace very hard until an attack on that ascent. If not, the climb to Isola 2000 is also significantly hard, but unless Pogacar would explode completely than it wouldn't be realistic to believe the yellow jersey can change hands.
Asked if this day favours Vingegaard more than others, Niermann responds: “Of course, but I don’t think anywhere in the last two-and-a-half weeks we have seen Tadej having a problem. For sure we go for it, for sure there’s a chance that the Tour finishes in Nice, but we also have to see how it will work out tomorrow. I’m not defeated, but in the end if Jonas finishes second and Tadej is just better, then it is like this. We will fight to the end, but we are also realistic and not stupid.”
Vingegaard can beat Pogacar if he is stronger than him, and on terrain as hard as this it can be described as simply as that. “The key to beating Tadej tomorrow is Jonas being stronger than Tadej. That’s it, full stop," he argues. "Of course we have a plan, but the plan always comes down to how good the best riders are. We can have the best plan – we have had a lot of good plans already for this Tour – but if Tadej turns out to be the strongest and unbeatable, then the best plan doesn't work.”
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