"He will not pedal from 80 kilometers to the finish" - Analysts on the tactics of Mathieu van der Poel and Alpecin for the Omloop

The new Classics season gets underway in Belgium with the ever-unpredictable Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, a race that traditionally opens the calendar of the major Northern events and, over the decades, has established itself as the first true test of form for specialists in cobbles and wind-exposed terrain. This Saturday, all eyes will be on Mathieu van der Poel, who has chosen this Classic to launch his road campaign.

Omloop is far more than just another February race. Its twisting route, marked by short, explosive climbs such as the Bosberg and long, open roads towards Ninove, demands a rare blend of power and tactical awareness.

Unlike other Classics where the cobbles alone dictate the outcome, positioning in the peloton and the ability to react to crosswinds can prove decisive here. The recent history of the race shows that both long-range attacks and reduced bunch sprints have determined the winner, reinforcing its unpredictable nature.

According to analysts from Sporza, José De Cauwer e Christoph Vandegoor, a long solo from Van der Poel should not necessarily be expected - "He will not pedal from 80 kilometers to the finish" - Instead, the forecast points towards in the peloton.

Vandegoor captured that idea with an interesting comparison: "It’s a flawed comparison, but I’m hoping for something similar to his first crossing in Namur. He wasn’t dominant there either, but he won. On that miserable concrete section after the Bosberg, you’re going to get a different kind of race."

The reference to the concrete section after the Bosberg is telling. That stretch, often exposed to crosswinds, can split the group and trigger intense chases. The open road towards Ninove is well known for creating echelons. It is precisely in this kind of scenario that Van der Poel can make the difference, not only with a attack, but also through his ability to impose tempo and control dangerous moves.

"Because with him you have a great engine who can bring a group back into the race in the wind." The quote underlines the Dutchman’s versatility. He is not just an explosive attacker, but also a powerful engine capable of driving the front of the group and reshaping the race in favour of his team’s interests. That makes him dangerous both offensively and in race management. His presence alone changes the dynamic of the peloton, increases the vigilance of his rivals and raises the tactical tension.

At the same time, that central role turns him into the primary marked man. "There may also be more in store from him." Inevitably, he is the reference point. Every acceleration will be closely followed, every move analysed with suspicion.

There is another factor to consider, highlighted by José De Cauwer. "He can also take a gamble, because he has Philipsen on the team" The presence of Jasper Philipsen adds a decisive tactical dimension. With one of the fastest finishers in the peloton as an alternative card to play, Van der Poel can approach the race more patiently. He can anticipate moves, harden the race or simply wait for a reduced group in which Philipsen can finish the job.

That partnership places Alpecin - Premier Tech in a privileged position at the start. The Belgian squad has already shown in previous seasons that it knows how to operate on multiple fronts, alternating between pure aggression and strategic control. "Personally, I expect a lot from him. Philipsen always needs a few races to get up to speed, and he’s already got those in his legs."

One thing seems clear about Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. "Mathieu is not going to throw a wrench into the works", said Vandegoor. The metaphor suggests restraint and clarity, two qualities that can be just as valuable as raw power in a race that, year after year, launches the Classics season with maximum intensity.