“Jonas Vingegaard’s luck might be running out” - Chris Horner doubts Visma leader can challenge “better than ever” Tadej Pogacar at Tour de France

Chris Horner has warned that Jonas Vingegaard may already be racing for second place at the 2026 Tour de France, despite arriving in July as Giro d’Italia champion.

The Team Visma | Lease a Bike leader won the Giro and took five stages along the way, but Horner believes Tadej Pogacar’s Tour de Suisse performance has changed the tone of the Tour build-up. Pogacar won three stages and the overall title in Switzerland, finishing the race with a mountain-stage display that Horner described as a serious warning to the rest of the field.

“At the finish of stage five, when Tadej Pogacar is crossing that line for his third victory at the Tour de Suisse plus the general classification, at that moment everybody sitting on the Chesterfield should be worried about the 2026 Tour de France,” Horner said on his Beyond the Coverage YouTube channel.

The former Vuelta a Espana winner then pointed to the climbing level Pogacar showed on the final stage. “The kind of power, at over seven watts per kilo for over 25 minutes, that Tadej Pogacar used on that final climb of the final stage of the Tour de Suisse, everybody has got to be scared,” he said.

Vingegaard’s Giro victory still earned praise from Horner, but not as proof that the Dane is ready to meet Pogacar on equal terms at the Tour. Horner said Vingegaard had benefited from rivals’ problems during parts of his build-up, even while insisting he still deserved his wins.

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“Jonas Vingegaard, second on the first page, won himself five stages of the Giro d’Italia, but his luck might be running out,” said Horner. “Remember, I’ve said it many times that Jonas had a little bit of luck throughout the season, with some favourites dropping out of races like Paris-Nice, dropping out of races of course at the Giro d’Italia.”

Horner then clarified that he was not trying to undermine Vingegaard’s Giro title. “He’s had a little bit of help with riders having bad luck in grabbing those wins,” he continued. “I still believe he would have won anyway. Do not misunderstand what I’m saying. I’m just saying it made it a little bit easier on Jonas Vingegaard from Team Visma | Lease a Bike when he leaves with five victories at the Giro d’Italia.”

Horner said Vingegaard improved as the Giro went on after a less convincing opening phase, eventually finishing the race in strong form. His concern is that Pogacar’s current level may have moved beyond the level required simply to arrive at the Tour in good condition.

“So Jonas is on fine form. There’s no doubt about that,” he said. “But Pogi is on form that I believe we have not seen. If we are to believe what we saw there at the Tour de Suisse, he may have gone up a little notch.”

Horner also referenced Pogacar’s own comments about his pre-Suisse training numbers. “When we look at some of the interviews from Tadej Pogacar, he says he was showing his best numbers in training and was taking more KOM records throughout his training camps of the 2026 season just before the Tour de Suisse started,” Horner said. “So it looks like Tadej Pogacar might be on even better form than we have seen in years past.”

Horner’s assessment of the Tour hierarchy was blunt. Unless Pogacar suffers a health issue or a major tactical setback, he sees the Slovenian as the clear winner-in-waiting. “Before the Tour starts, if anyone has anybody other than Tadej Pogacar winning the 2026 Tour de France, you’re a knucklehead,” Horner said. “There’s no doubt about that.”

That leaves Vingegaard, in Horner’s view, in a different fight from the one he has so often occupied against Pogacar. “So you’ve got to start looking at the battle for second and third, and podium places,” he continued. “Jonas Vingegaard, even after winning the Giro d’Italia, then watching the Tour de Suisse, we know that Jonas is battling for second on the general classification unless something happens to Tadej Pogacar health-wise, guys, tactic-wise, making big-time mistakes.”

Paul Seixas’ crash at the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes was another example Horner used when discussing Vingegaard’s route to the podium. The French teenager had looked like one of the riders capable of joining the podium battle, but his crash and withdrawal came close enough to the Tour to raise doubts over his final preparation.

“When Jonas leaves the Giro, his number one moment after those five stage victories is not, ‘Can I beat Tadej Pogacar at the 2026 Tour de France?’” said Horner. “It’s, ‘Can I beat everyone else not named Tadej Pogacar?’”

Vingegaard’s task has also been complicated by the team picture around him. Wout van Aert has already been ruled out after his elbow infection, removing one of Team Visma | Lease a Bike’s most versatile riders from the Tour selection.

“I don’t see there is any chance that he could get put back on the list for Team Visma | Lease a Bike,” Horner said of Van Aert. “You take out Wout van Aert after having the antibiotics for the elbow. He is missing. That is another big hit.”

Horner also questioned Matteo Jorgenson’s tactical decisions at the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, where Isaac del Toro won the race for UAE Team Emirates - XRG. Del Toro’s performance added another layer to Horner’s doubts over Visma’s position heading into July.

“Isaac del Toro, you were amazing,” said Horner. “Which is another big hit to Visma because Jonas Vingegaard now has to battle against Tadej Pogacar, who has already shown that he is on better form, and now has to battle with Isaac del Toro, his super lieutenant starting the 2026 Tour de France, along with Adam Yates too.”

UAE will start the Tour with Pogacar backed by Del Toro, Yates, Brandon McNulty, Felix Grossschartner, Tim Wellens, Nils Politt and Florian Vermeersch. Visma still have climbing support around Vingegaard, including Sepp Kuss, Jorgenson and Davide Piganzoli, but Horner’s reading of the pre-Tour build-up leaves little ambiguity.

Vingegaard has the Giro in his legs, five stage wins behind him and a proven Tour record. Pogacar, according to Horner, has arrived from Switzerland looking stronger than before, with UAE carrying enough depth to make Visma’s yellow-jersey route even narrower.