"Jonas Vingegaard won’t be winning a third Tour this year" - Philippa York gives Visma leader no chance following brutal Itzulia crash

From what looked like being a Tour de France battle for the ages this summer as Grand Tour cycling's 'Big 4' all targeted the Maillot Jaune, one crash at the recent Itzulia Basque Country has thrown everything into chaos.

Three of the 'Big 4' were all involved in the Itzulia crash. Primoz Roglic abandoned the race in the back of his team car and only five days later, has he managed to get back onto his bike. Remco Evenepoel left the race in the back of an ambulance and has recently undergone surgery for a broken collarbone. But it was Jonas Vingegaard, two-time Tour de France winner, who was worst hit by the crash. The Dane needed an oxygen mask as he was stretchered into an ambulance, with hospital testing revealing a broken collarbone, broken ribs and punctured lung.

Although Team Visma | Lease a Bike have refused to fully rule out Vingegaard appearing at the Tour de France later this summer, Philippa York believes it's curtains for the Dane's hopes of taking a third successive Maillot Jaune. "Sadly, I think Jonas Vingegaard won’t be winning a third Tour this year even if he makes it to the start – which, given the extent of his injuries, seems unlikely too," York writes for Cycling News. "If it had been only – and I use 'only' with the greatest respect for each ailment’s consequences – the collarbone or ribs or punctured lung, then he may have had a fairly short disruption to his schedule. With all of them at the same time, it wouldn’t be prudent to think he can still line up in Florence for the defence of his title. His being kept in hospital shows the concern for just how seriously he is damaged."

York, a three-time Tour de France stage winner and King of the Mountains winner at the Tour, plus a runner-up at three Grand Tours, is doubtful even Evenepoel will be able to challenge for the Maillot Jaune. "The doctors at the Herentals hospital have done their magic as far as the collarbone is concerned but it remains to be seen how the other fracture heals," York evaluates. "Even if it is quick, the preparation to challenge Pogačar and co. at the Tour will be disrupted. I don’t think he will miss the Tour de France, but without an ideal run-in he may have to reconsider his objectives there. The Olympics could well become his main focus as a result of this setback."

For Roglic however, York is slightly more optimistic. "It’s not often you can mention ‘Primož Roglič’ and ‘crash’ in the same sentence and it turns out that he’s the lucky one. But cycling is full of surprises, which is why the Bora-Hansgrohe leader surviving two falls and abandoning the race while in the leader’s jersey can be described as fortunate. Miraculous, even," York says.

"With almost 2 weeks of healing time until the Ardennes classics he ought to be back in action there, though I wouldn’t be surprised if he skipped Flèche Wallonne and saved himself for Liège-Bastogne-Liège and a rendezvous with Tadej Pogacar," York concludes.