"It's extremely rare for a rider to win on their first attempt at Roubaix" but Jens Voigt doesn't totally rule out Tadej Pogacar

This afternoon, world champion Tadej Pogacar makes a highly anticipated career-debut on the iconic cobbles of Paris-Roubaix. Can he win on debut though? That remains a hot topic of debate amongst the cycling world.

Pogacar's confidence would have been boosted by the recent win at the Tour of Flanders. However, according to German ex-pro turned Eurosport pundit Jens Voigt, there are few similarities between Flanders and Roubaix. "Pavement replaces mountains – the good old racing saying applies here. There are many more cobblestone kilometers, and at the same time, there are no climbs: This actually suits taller, stronger, and therefore heavier riders," Voigt explains. "This is an advantage for specialists like Mads Pedersen, Filippo Ganna, and Stefan Küng on the flat but wind-prone course in France."

"In terms of race tactics, the fight for a spot in the first breakaway group is much fiercer at Roubaix," he continues. "Often, everyone wants to be there to help their leaders later as a relay station when they catch up from behind. Things are different in Flanders, and the spots in the breakaway group are usually less contested."

It's likely though, that things could once again come down to a dual between Pogacar and Mathieu van der Poel, who has won Paris-Roubaix in 2023 and 2024. "It's extremely rare for a rider to win on their first attempt at Roubaix—if it's ever happened before in history. This race is usually a learning process. But Pogacar is so strong that when he sets his mind to something, he usually follows through," analyses the German. "He's already studied the course closely, but it's a completely different experience approaching the cobblestones in a race with 200 other riders than during a training ride."

"The circle of the really big favourites is clearly defined: Filippo Ganna, Mads Pedersen, van der Poel as the generally mentioned top favourite, and, with a slight margin, Wout van Aert. But Pogacar, in his debut, is also an equally big favourite," Voigt concludes. "With him at the start, the entire dynamic changes. And we shouldn't forget van der Poel's teammate Jasper Philipsen; after all, he finished second last year."