“If Vine wins from a break and Almeida loses the Vuelta by 3 seconds…" - Johan Bruyneel foresees potential UAE implosion on final summit finish of La Vuelta 2025

We’ve reached stage 20 of the 2025 Vuelta a Espana — the decisive showdown between Jonas Vingegaard and João Almeida, separated by just 44 seconds before the brutal summit finish on the Bola del Mundo, where the Portuguese rider will attempt a late assault against the Dane.

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin analysed what could unfold on this pivotal day during Lance Armstrong’s podcast The Move, flagging both the unique characteristics of the finale and the added uncertainty caused by potential protests. This time, it’s not only pro-Palestinian groups but also environmental activists who could disrupt the race.

On the face of it Stage 19 was a routine bunch sprint: a solo rider up the road, a low average speed for much of the day and an uphill drag to the finish. But there was a moment that could yet decide the whole race — an intermediate sprint where Vingegaard picked up four seconds while UAE appeared to be caught out.

Spencer Martin was blunt about the consequences: “Think about that — that’s like 50 per cent of the gap Almeida took yesterday. They’ve probably spent hundreds of thousands refining that time-trial position, and then you give half of it back by not paying attention.” He added that the move looked avoidable: “When you see those yellow jerseys with the red guy on the wheel up front, just be on the wheel. Almeida or Pidcock would have beaten you in that sprint.”

Bruyneel agreed, but turned the conversation to the sprint itself and the performance that dominated the day. “The lead-out was amazing,” he said. “With 1.3 kilometres to go there wasn’t a single Alpecin rider in the top 40 — and then suddenly four of them appear. They come from nowhere: Ricard, Plankaert, Philipsen… Ricard gets them into position and Philipsen finishes it off.”

About Philipsen’s sprint Bruyneel was effusive: “It was a slow sprint — until the last 200 metres it was slightly uphill, then it flattened. Impressive, impressive from Philipsen. He said after the finish he isn’t in great shape, yet he’s taken three stages and maybe a fourth in Madrid. After his crash in the Tour, that’s quite the comeback.”

Martin added perspective on the numbers: “He’s at 16 Grand Tour stage wins now — only Pogacar and Roglic have more among active riders. Not bad company.”

All eyes now turn to Saturday’s queen stage to the Bola del Mundo — the final chance for Almeida to unseat Vingegaard. “Bola del Mundo is basically an extension of Navacerrada,” Bruyneel said. “You turn right and face three kilometres on really rough concrete — very rough, not smooth. It’s about 12.5 per cent average for that section with ramps hitting 18–20 per cent. It’s like the Angliru, but with worse tarmac. Super slow and exposed — the last part will be savage.”

He warned the stage is more than a single hard climb: “There are five categorised climbs and roughly 4,200 metres of vertical gain. The peaks are nearly 2,300 metres — high altitude that you don’t usually see in the Vuelta. In past editions the time gaps here have been significant; for whatever reason, you seem to get bigger gaps on this climb than even on the Angliru.”

For Almeida, Bruyneel was clear about the arithmetic: “If Almeida wants a chance, first he needs great legs. He’ll also need the time bonuses — he might even have to win the stage. They hit Navacerrada first from the harder side, then come back via Guadarrama before the Bola. That final section is going to take a long time.”

Martin set out the tactical picture: “UAE need to control. If Visma don’t want to race for the stage win — which would remove the bonuses — they have an incentive to slow things. But if UAE are asleep again tomorrow, those bonuses could swing everything.”

Bruyneel’s tip remains Vingegaard: “My pick is Jonas Vingegaard. He’ll stay with Almeida and beat him in the last kilometre.” Martin meanwhile backed Almeida: “He needs the stage and the bonuses — I think he can do it.”

Both men also named other contenders. Bruyneel singled out Tom Pidcock after his Alto del Morredero showing; Martin’s wild-card was Jay Vine, who could win from a break and — in a scenario the pair found almost comical — combine stage victory and KOM points to snatch the mountains jersey and, conceivably, cost Almeida the overall by seconds.

“It’s unbelievable to imagine it, but it could happen,” Bruyneel said. “If Jay Vine wins from a break and takes the KOM and Almeida loses the Vuelta by three seconds… you can see why this race has been full of strange possibilities.”

Off the road there is more uncertainty. Martin confirmed race organisers have restricted access on the Bola del Mundo: “There won’t be spectators in the final kilometre — not because of the latest unrest but because of an earlier environmental protest. Only accredited personnel will be allowed.”

Bruyneel warned the planned action is hard to police: “There’s a big movement planned for today and in Madrid. They’ve said they’ll try to get to the summit across the fields, not the road. That’s really difficult to control.”