PREVIEW & FAVOURITES | Vuelta a España 2025 stage 20 - Final duel for Vingegaard and Almeida at Bola del Mundo

We preview stage 20 of the Vuelta a Espana, which will take place on the 13th of September and will be the final decisive day of the race. Jonas Vingegaard and João Almeida will go head-to-head on the Bola del Mundo, the final summit finish of the race. The stage is estimated to start at 13:10CET and finish at 17:15CET.

The Bola del Mundo climb is brought back for the final GC stage of the race. It is a day where not many surprises are expected seeing that the final climb is very difficult and those beforehand don't allow for much space to surprise. But Bola del Mundo itself provides roads to create big gaps.

However the stage is not easy at all, having some small climbs early in the day where a strong breakaway can be formed and later go on to fight for the stage win.

There is a bonus sprint with 50 kilometers to go at the summit of the penultimate climb of the day, which is 6.9 kilometers at 7.5%. But this won't really see attacks, it's all going to happen on the final climb.

At the end of a day with 4100 meters of climbing we've got the ascent to the Puerto de Navacerrada and it's summit at the Bola del Mundo. It's 12.4 kilometers long at 8.6%, with the final 3 averaging 12%. A brutal climb, capable of making the difference and with the altitude factor added to the mix, the end of the stage taking place at over 2200 meters of altitude.

Some northwestern wind which is unlikely to have much of an impact on the stage.

Overall win - Visma does not have to do anything in this stage other than to follow wheels and have Jonas Vingegaard follow João Almeida. If they do this, they will have won the Vuelta - ironically with an attack in a stage where almost no-one predicted there to be differences.

Ideally they would not work throughout the day, not even with Dylan van Baarle and Wilco Kelderman, as that would just be letting UAE rest and deploy their tactics as they want. On the other hand UAE has to try and make the final climb as hard as possible. This isn't a stage designed to attack from far out, and having men in the breakaway is unlikely to change the outcome. All-in-all, save the men and make it hard from the base of the Bola del Mundo only, not let a war of attrition drag out as Vingegaard and Visma will benefit from that. Almeida ideally will have a strong pace until 3 kilometers to go, and then attack right away, and try to use those kilometers to try and close the 44-second gap. A hard task in regular circumstances, but Vingegaard's illness makes it possible.

But the fight might be influenced by BORA, who have 4th and 5th in GC, who on paper are stronger climbers than Tom Pidcock. Again, BORA (and Jai Hindley) also don't have the chance to do damage before the final climb. Giulio Pellizzari, strong, with a stage win an 58 seconds over Matthew Riccitello may put himself in the front of the group and prepare a Hindley attack, but Pidcock's very high form means it won't be easy to take 39 seconds on him - specially in an ultra-steep finale, which on paper favours him. Matthew Riccitello is 3 seconds in front of Felix Gall but judging by the Austrian's recent difficulties, he is unlikely to be able to take that time back. 

With an uphill start and the mix of Visma and UAE tactics, we may very well have a breakaway succeed, with many men reaching the final climb with several minutes of lead as there's not much reason for anyone to push much beforehand.

In this group we'll find Harold Tejada, Santiago Buitrago, Abel Balderstone, Egan Bernal, Giulio Ciccone, Eddie Dunbar, Mikel Landa, Finlay Pickering, Marco Frigo, Antonio Tiberi and Bob Jungels.

*** Santiago Buitrago, Egan Bernal
** João Almeida, Jonas Vingegaard, Jai Hindley, Mikel Landa, Antonio Tiberi
* Tom Pidcock, Giulio Pellizzari, Matthew Riccitello, Harold Tejada, Eddie Dunbar, Bob Jungels

Pick: Santiago Buitrago

How: Solo breakaway win.