That context is now driving debate inside Denmark about whether the schedule still leaves enough room to prepare properly.
A season reduced to three races
The
UAE Tour was supposed to provide rhythm rather than results. Its removal has turned Catalunya into Vingegaard’s sole competitive reference point before the Giro, placing far greater weight on a single week of racing.
Speaking to TV2, former professional Lars Bak was clear about what he feels is missing from that picture. “I would really like him to get another stage race in before the Giro,” Bak said.
Bak’s concern is not about volume. It is about sharpness and exposure to race stress. Vingegaard has trained heavily through the winter, but the crash disrupted continuity, and illness delayed his return to competition. “He has trained a lot, really a lot, but getting into race situations and putting speed into the legs… I do have my doubts about that if he only rides the
Volta a Catalunya before the Giro,” Bak added.
When preparation leaves no buffer
With only one race before the Giro, there is no room to recalibrate. Any issue in Catalunya now carries disproportionate weight, whether that is form, timing, or simple race rhythm.
That fragility is a direct consequence of how Vingegaard’s winter unfolded. The training crash became a wider talking point across the peloton, but for him, it removed momentum at a key phase of preparation. Illness then completed the compression, leaving his spring built around a single competitive reference point.
Confidence built on precedent
Not everyone sees that compression as a problem. Emil Axelgaard also described the
UAE Tour withdrawal as “not optimal”, but stopped well short of alarm. “I don’t consider the catastrophe of missing a race to be particularly big,” Axelgaard said, pointing out that Vingegaard was already scheduled for a light build-up before the Giro.
Axelgaard’s confidence is rooted in precedent rather than optimism. “He has never had problems being razor sharp after periods without racing,” he said, reflecting a pattern that has defined much of Vingegaard’s rise to the top level.
Where uncertainty does remain is timing rather than volume. Vingegaard has never previously needed to reach peak condition so early in the season, a direct result of targeting the Giro alongside the Tour de France. “The challenge is that Vingegaard has never had to peak this early before because of the Giro,” Axelgaard added.
That is the balance his season now rests on. With just three races on the calendar and no safety net before May, Vingegaard’s 2026 campaign has become an exercise in precision. The crash has already removed flexibility. Whether the remaining schedule is enough to carry him through two Grand Tours will define everything that follows.