“I don’t see it as ducking... You do the same thing, you’re going to keep getting beat by Tadej Pogacar” - Tejay van Garderen backs Jonas Vingegaard’s Giro d’Italia gamble

Jonas Vingegaard’s decision to target the 2026 Giro d’Italia before returning to the Tour de France has sparked debate across cycling, but former Tour de France white jersey winner Tejay van Garderen believes the Dane’s calendar shift is not about avoiding Tadej Pogacar at all.

Instead, Van Garderen sees it as an attempt to finally change the pattern of one of modern cycling’s defining rivalries.

Speaking on NBC Sports Cycling’s Beyond the Podium podcast alongside Christian Vande Velde, Van Garderen defended Vingegaard’s decision to pursue the Giro-Tour double in a season where Pogacar will once again focus entirely on July.

“Honestly, I think he’s just trying a different approach,” Van Garderen said. “If you want to do the same thing every year, you're just going to keep getting beaten by Tadej every year. So, if he wants to try a new approach, great.”

That rivalry has shaped Grand Tour racing since 2021. Pogacar won the Tour de France in both 2021 and 2024 before adding another yellow jersey in 2025, while Vingegaard struck back with consecutive victories in 2022 and 2023.

For a period, it looked as though Vingegaard and Team Visma | Lease a Bike had discovered the blueprint to break Pogacar. Their aggressive mountain tactics during the 2022 Tour cracked the Slovenian on the Col du Granon before Vingegaard reinforced his dominance a year later with crushing performances in the mountains and time trial.

Momentum shifted again after Vingegaard’s devastating Itzulia Basque Country crash in 2024 disrupted his preparation ahead of the Tour. Pogacar regained control of the rivalry and has remained the dominant force since, although Vingegaard salvaged his 2025 season by winning the Vuelta a Espana. That Vuelta success now appears central to Visma’s thinking heading into 2026.

Van Garderen suggested Vingegaard’s camp may believe the Dane reached a higher level later in the season after racing consecutive Grand Tours, potentially influencing the decision to build his year around the Giro before returning to France. “Right now he's probably looking at last year when he raced the Tour and then the Vuelta,” Van Garderen explained. “He was probably looking at his numbers being like, ‘Wow, my numbers are better now in the Vuelta. What if I had these legs in the Tour?’”

That, according to Van Garderen, changes the entire interpretation of Vingegaard’s Giro appearance. “In the Tadej Pogacar era, I don't see it as ducking or excuse-making,” he said. “I see it as you've got to find your best chance for success. And if it’s a race that Tadej is not going to be at, you've got a better chance to win.”

“And if he gets a Giro win along the way and finishes second to Tadej in the Tour, who's to say that's going to be a failure? That's a massive success if you ask me,” he added. “I would sign up for that all day long and twice on Tuesday.”

The comments come after criticism from some observers who viewed Vingegaard’s Giro d’Italia participation as an attempt to sidestep direct confrontation with Pogacar before July.

Instead, Van Garderen sees the move as a calculated attempt to find a new formula capable of eventually beating the Slovenian again at the Tour de France.

While much of the long term focus remains on what this approach could mean for the Tour de France, both Van Garderen and Vande Velde made it clear they see Vingegaard as the overwhelming favourite to win the Giro itself. “It’s all about Jonas,” Vande Velde said. “This is his race to lose, in my opinion.”

The former Giro d’Italia pink jersey wearer pointed towards the race’s first major summit finish at Blockhaus as a potentially decisive moment. “If you're looking at the way he races, and really the template of how to race a great Grand Tour, the easiest or the best way to do it is always to go and crush them at the beginning,” Vande Velde said. “Then you can play defence.”

Van Garderen agreed, describing the brutal Blockhaus stage as the point where Vingegaard could take control of the race. “Once Blockhaus hits and once that jersey is on Jonas's back, it's going to be hard to pry it off him,” he said.

The Giro route appears designed to suit Vingegaard. The 2026 edition features almost 50,000 metres of climbing, limited time trial kilometres and several brutal summit finishes, while Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel and rising French star Paul Seixas are all absent from the startlist.

That does not mean Vingegaard will have an uncontested route to pink. Van Garderen highlighted Giulio Pellizzari as the rider he expects to emerge as the Dane’s biggest challenger after the young Italian impressed again at the Tour of the Alps. “I saw Pellizzari there. This dude looks good, man,” Van Garderen said. “He's only 22 and he's on Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe now. He's got a strong squad to back him. I think Pellizzari is the odds-on favourite as a challenger.”

Adam Yates, Ben O’Connor, Felix Gall and Egan Bernal were also discussed as possible podium contenders, although both NBC analysts repeatedly returned to the same conclusion: Vingegaard enters the Giro as the clear rider to beat.

For the Dane himself, though, the bigger objective may still sit several weeks further down the road in France. Because after five consecutive Tours de France defined by the Pogacar-Vingegaard rivalry, the 2026 season increasingly feels less like a normal Grand Tour campaign and more like an attempt to rewrite the balance of power once again.