Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 5 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Breakaway chaos or will Lidl-Trek chase race into a GC battle?

The 2026 Giro d'Italia will take place from the 8th to the 31st of May. It is the first Grand Tour of the season, and there are 21 stages that will take the riders through many of Italy's iconic cities, the mythical Alps, and many treacherous stages - each one can end the climber's chances of winning. We preview stage 5, which is expected to start and finish at 12:15 and 17:10CET.

The first edition of the Corsa Rosa took place in 1909, won by Luigi Ganna that year. Italy has always been one of the most influential countries in professional cycling and the Giro provided, every year, the opportunity for the biggest riders to show off their abilities in all terrains. It is one of the races with the most history. Eddy Merckx, Alfredo Binda and Fausto Coppi have each won it five times and hold the record together.

These are riders that have marked different generations, but other generations have too been marked by the victories of Gino Bartali, Bernard Hinault, Miguel Indurain and Marco Pantani, as examples. In recent decades less Italians have won it; with Vincenzo Nibali being its latest home winner back in 2016. The likes of Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana, Tom Dumoulin and Chris Froome all marked their name in the Trofeo Senza Fine (the Giro's 'endless trophy'.

Tao Geoghegan Hart won the 'Covid edition' in 2020; Egan Bernal won it back in 2021; Jai Hindley took the win in 2022; In 2023 it was Primoz Roglic who beat Geraint Thomas in a dramatic final mountain time trial to win his first Giro; In 2024 Tadej Pogacar dominated the edition from start to finish whilst in 2025 it was Great Britain's Simon Yates who won the pink jersey after a brilliant attack on the final mountain stage which dethroned Isaac del Toro.

A stage for the 'baroudeaurs'. The Giro d'Italia has never been fond of preventing the breakaway specialists from having their opportunities, and here there is an ideal one. There is a long history of riders benefitting from week 1 breakaways to jump into the race lead; and that could be the center topic of the day.

Out from Praia a Mare, the first hour of racing could be very hard. There is a third-category climb into Prestieri which is 13 kilometers long at 4.6%, which allows the climbers to attack and get ahead of the peloton. It's not steep enough, at the same time, to prevent classics specialists and rouleurs from doing the same.

The stage is too hard for the sprinters, but the hard climbs are usually too far away from the finish for main GC men to be taking big risks. We should see a strong breakaway form, which could then not be caught again. With over 200 kilometers on the menu, any chase will be difficult, and undergo a lot of flat terrain whilst also throwing in a very difficult climb into the mix.

The climb to Monte Grande de Viggiani is 6 kilometers long at 9%. If it was a summit finish, we could expect serious differences. But usually, not many men want to take risks in the first week of a Grand Tour, and with 48 kilometers to the finish, some may hesitate to make moves.

What follows is terrain that is favourable for attackers however, regardless of where they stand in the race. We have got rolling climbs, a Red Bull Kilometer with 31 kilometers to go; and the final 25 kilometers are mostly downhill.

However, the final kilometers again have a few climbs in the mix, ideal for the classics specialists. There is a 1.3-kilometer long climb at 7%, with 12% ramps at the bottom, that ends with a mere 4 kilometers to go.

The riders climb into the town center and then descend back down again, with technical roads; before a slight climb to the finish in a larger avenue. But it's not likely that there will be much of a sprint finish at the end of the stage for that to be crucial.

Breakaway fight - The ideal day for those riders who are great climbers but not quite Grand Tour specialists - specially if they have lost time already. With the big climb early in the day, it will be impossible to control a breakaway. However, we have Lidl-Trek in command of the race, with a highly-motivated Giulio Ciccone. They will want to have some control, and ideally not lose the pink jersey, so the German team is likely to chase and he himself may put on some pace in the main climb if he sees the threat.

Hence, we really do end up seeing a stage where those who haven't lost time may struggle to get freedom. Traditionally, the pink jersey changes hands in the first mountain stage, because the main climbers do not want to commit yet, and realistically no-one is taking the lead over Jonas Vingegaard here unless Visma is ok with it.

There are a few riders I expected would have some freedom today, but they might not. Unless Lidl send Matteo Sobrero or Derek Gee into the break, then no-one at the 10-second mark will be allowed to go and gain a meaningful gap. Behind, some chance exists. Afonso Eulálio, Chris Harper, David de la Cruz and Wout Poels may be riders who have some freedom and the ability to also move onto the pink jersey - they also do not have GC ambitions connected to them.

Above all, if a winner is to come from a break, they need to be good climbers. But not pure climber, instead men with some explosivity or sprinting ability as well. Johannes Kulset, Christian Scaroni, Javier Romo, Andreas Leknessund, Magnus Sheffield or Igor Arrieta. I would say UAE would want to place more men in front, but I think after winning today's stage, it's unlikely that Jhonatan Narváez will give it a go once again.

GC fight - And if the breakaway is caught? Well, that would make for an interesting scenario. On the main climb only Jonas Vingegaard can do the key damage, but he doesn't have a reason to do it I would say. So we would have a small peloton, with Lidl-Trek and Ciccone trying to defend... If the climb is not ridden to the max several classics riders should also make it over the top or return after... It's tricky to predict.

I would say there's a high risk of tactical attacks. Simultaneously, we might see a finale for the puncheurs, with a small peloton sprint like today deciding the stage. Narváez is again a big favourite in this scenario but I would say Jan Christen likely more. Lennert van Eetvelt as an explosive rider would also have a big say and of course so is Ciccone himself, who has sprinted his way into the pink jersey; and that is aside from all the GC men who may get lucky with an opportunistic attack.

*** Christian Scaroni, Andreas Leknessund, Javier Romo

** Jan Christen, Igor Arrieta, Jhonatan Narváez

* Afonso Eulálio, Chris Harper, Johannes Kulset, Lennert van Eetvelt, Giulio Pellizzari, Thymen Arensman, Michael Storer, Giulio Ciccone

Pick: Javier Romo

How: Breakaway win