CyclingUpToDate Podcast: "Why not strike when the iron is hot?" - Are Visma's injuries a disaster or an opportunity for the Tour de France?

Team Visma | Lease a Bike's Tour de France lineup is a debate that is still up in the air, even after they have confirmed their '8' this week. Injuries have ravaged the team's rouleurs and different options are being considered. On the CyclingUpToDate podcast, Rúben Silva, Gavin Quinn and Carlos Silva have discussed the Dutch team's current situation.

"I definitely would not want to be a Visma sports director or, you know, Richard Plugge right now," Quinn said. "Because in the space of two or three weeks, you've kind of lost two, three... Maybe Laporte was a little bit longer kind of ago, so you knew that was going to happen. And he did put good plans in place".

Laporte's quad injury back in May was the team's first obstacle. The Frenchman has since been replaced by youngster Per Strand Hagenes, who will make his debut in a Grand Tour in the most important of positions; after a breakthrough spring where he finished second at the E3 Saxo Classic behind Mathieu van der Poel and more.

"I think bringing in Per Strand-Hagenaes is a good idea. I thought he's having a bit of a coming of age now in the last weeks. You know, he got a win in Antwerp and he picked his moment really well, like showed really good experience".

Then right before the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Wout Van Aert suffered a crash and then came at risk of an elbow infection. He required two surgeries to clean the wound and went on antibiotics, making it near impossible for him to be present at the Tour as his preparation was severely hampered.

His replacement came as a surprise perhaps in the form of Davide Piganzoli, fresh off the Giro d'Italia and a GC win at La Route d'Occitanie. "Piganzoli, excellent form. You know, why not strike when the iron is hot? Because, you know, he was excellent in the Giro d'Italia".

Does the team miss out a lot on having a rider like Van Aert in their lineup however? Even if he was to chase his individual ambitions at the same time as aiding Vingegaard's pursuit of the pink jersey?

"Van Aert is one of the greatest all-rounder riders of his generation, but he isn't a pure climber, you know? That's why I don't think that Visma will suffer the most in the mountains;" Carlos Silva argued. "Piganzoli, Jorgenson and Kuss still give Vingegaard a very strong mountain block".

In his opinion, the necessity for a strong mountain block is absolutely key going into the race going into this race. "I don't think the biggest battle of this tour will be between Pogacar and Vingegaard, I think it will be between Emirates and Visma".

"Because if Vingegaard reaches the final climb fresh, I still believe he has the level to challenge everyone and anyone. The question is whether this team can deliver him to that point without forcing him to spend energy simply can't afford to waste. So is Visma is in trouble? I won't go so far..."

With Affini now potentially out, his replacement should be one of the following: Ben Tulett, Jorgen Nordhagen or Bart Lemmen. But Lemmen's recent addition to the shortlist as reported by Wielerflits makes it viable that others are also being considered.

Is Affini fully out of the equation though? "He's already back on the bike doing some kind of training already, but it's just the Tour de France comes too soon, you know," Quinn argued. "You have a team time trial to begin with, so you need to be in top shape. And even Van Aert, after his fall was not really in top shape in the Dauphiné (Auvergne, ed.) TT".

"So it would probably be the right call in terms of, if I'm a sports director and I'm thinking, what's the best I can get out of my team, it's probably not to bring Affini if he is sporting any kinds of effects after the crash."

Rúben Silva sees the answer as almost definitive, but does not rule out that in the long game, it may not affect the team's chances of winning the race: "I am not positive at all that Affini is going to be at the Tour. I think it's too early, it just is too early. The luck is not going to be falling on his side, but I don't think it's a disaster".

"I think Affini, is very important for what they have planned, but as Carlos mentioned, I don't think Jorgenson is at the level of Del Toro. He's not going to be able to put pressure on Del Toro. I think adding Piganzoli to the team makes sense, and adding Ben Tullet next also makes sense. I think Visma, they need a lot of riders in the mountains".

UAE will have Isaac del Toro backing up Tadej Pogacar and in recent years it has been rare for the World Champion to ever be under pressure. Tactics should be the Dutch team's biggest weapon and for that they need a lot of climbers in the decisive stages to use them in different ways.

"They need men to send to the breakaways, just every mountain stage, and play their cards. If Pogacar has a day where he's not so good, they have to take advantage of it from far away," he argued.

"They have to take advantage of it using tactics that are not just going head-to-head, because when was the last time that Pogacar was beaten head-to-head in a mountain race? It was literally three years ago, if my memory doesn't fail me here. I think it was 2023".

In the upcoming days it will be understood whether Visma will keep Affini in the team's lineup, and if not, who will be his replacement.