"Are they going to go all out on Hautacam? They've got the TT on the next stage" - Dan Martin suggests Vingegaard & Pogacar cease-fire on Tour de France stage 12

Stage 12 is widely expected to bring fireworks to the 2025 Tour de France, with four categorised climbs in total, including a potentially decisive summit finish atop the ominous Hautacam. According to former Tour stage winner Dan Martin however, the likes of Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar might have the days to come on their mind.

"It's an interesting one, we've got three hard days back-to-back," previews the retired Irishman in comments to Cycling News, explaining how the day after day brutality might make for a disappointing cease-fire on stage 12. "So are they going to want to go all out on Hautacam because they've got the TT on the next stage, or is it going to be all out every day?"

As mentioned, whilst the stage climaxes on Hautacam, it is far from the only challenge of the day. "Superbagnères is much steadier. You can get into a rhythm quite easily. But Hautacam - that's a real attacking climb," says Martin. "It's a shorter stage, too, so they'll be fresher. By the time you get to Saturday, you'll have two hard days in the legs, and that counts as well. That extra effort takes away some of the riders' explosivity."

However, with the GC still relatively tight, and this being the first real foray into the potentially decisive mountains, Martin believes Hautacam could be a real wake-up call for some GC hopefuls if the stage is attacked. "The change is more physical than psychological, we're at Wednesday now," Martin says. "Obviously, we had a hard day the other day [stage 10]. But it's not climbing like the Pyrenees."

"So if we say the riders' last hard mountains training ride was the Sunday and Monday before the Tour at the latest, then they were going onto Lille. So for two weeks, they have not been pushing power for long periods of time on the small chainring, and that takes a toll on the body," he adds.

Pogacar currently sits 1:15 clear of Vingegaard, although it's Martin's compatriot Ben Healy who holds the Maillot Jaune. Martin is clear though, that it's not Pogacar who needs to attack. "Pogacar is probably the best rider in the world for counter-attacking, too. So that'd be my tactic if I were him," the Irishman proposes. "Pavel Sivakov didn't look himself, on stage 10, but I expect him to be back. But going forward, I think UAE's performance on stage 10 in the Massif Centrale was amazing, they almost matched Visma."

"OK, Visma had Simon Yates up the road, so it's hard to tell in full, but with somebody as strong as Tadej, if you can get him to the last climb, he's fine anyway," Martin concludes. "And if he wants to make it just about him and Jonas, Tadej can make that happen quickly, too."