“Are they accepting defeat against Pogacar?” – Geraint Thomas doubts Jonas Vingegaard's ‘ballsy’ Giro-Tour double

The debate around Jonas Vingegaard’s 2026 calendar is no longer just a media talking point. It is now being openly questioned by former Tour de France winners and experienced insiders who know exactly what it takes to win in July.

With the Dane set to ride the Giro d’Italia for the first time before returning to the Tour de France to face Tadej Pogacar once again, Geraint Thomas admits the decision surprises him.

“Ballsy,” Thomas said on the Watts Occurring podcast. “And it almost never works.”

The Welshman sees two possible explanations for the move, and neither is comfortable. “Are they doing it to at least win a Grand Tour, almost like they’re accepting defeat against Pogi? Or are they doing it thinking he has such a big engine that he’ll perform better in the Tour with a Grand Tour in his legs? I hope it’s not already a worry that they can’t win the Tour.”

Vingegaard has built his career around meticulous preparation for July. His 2022 and 2023 Tour victories came after tightly controlled spring programmes designed to peak for one race. Even in 2024 and 2025, when Pogacar proved too strong, the philosophy did not change: everything pointed to the Tour.

That is why this year feels different.

The Giro is not a warm-up. It is three weeks of attritional racing, pressure, stress and recovery load that historically leaves riders paying for it later in the summer. Thomas knows this from experience. “On one hand, it’s the Giro, and that’s a huge, great race. In many ways, better than the Tour even. He’s already won the Tour and the Vuelta once, so if he wins, he’ll have all three Grand Tours.”

But he also poses a hypothetical that cuts to the heart of the gamble. “If something happens to Pogi the night before the Tour… what does Jonas think then? What would he do if he knew now that Pogacar wasn’t going to ride the Tour?”

The implication is clear. If Pogacar were not there, Vingegaard might regret arriving in France with the Giro already in his legs.

Luke Rowe, now a sports director at Decathlon AG2R, views it slightly differently. He admits the romantic side of him wants the best riders arriving at the Tour completely fresh. “The second-best stage racer of this generation has to prepare 100 per cent for the biggest bike race in the world.”

But Rowe also offers a crucial counterweight to Thomas’ doubts. “I think Visma are one of the smartest teams, maybe the smartest. There will be a lot of thinking and calculating behind this that we don’t know about.”

That line fits perfectly with what Vingegaard himself has already explained this winter. He has insisted that despite riding only four races, he will still total around 60 race days, and that a lighter spring is essential if he is to have any chance of beating Pogacar in July.

From inside the team, riders like Wilco Kelderman and Bart Lemmen have spoken about a clear long-term ambition for Vingegaard to win all three Grand Tours. That context reframes the Giro not as a distraction, but as part of a broader legacy goal.

And yet Thomas’ words linger. Because for the first time, respected voices inside the sport are openly asking whether this plan is a sign of supreme confidence, or a subtle acceptance that beating Pogacar at the Tour, on equal terms, has become too difficult.

That is what makes the 2026 Giro-Tour double one of the most fascinating tactical gambles of Vingegaard’s career.