ANALYSIS: Tadej Pogacar's five biggest rivals at Milano-Sanremo 2026

One of the most anticipated weeks of the cycling season has finally arrived. The days leading up to a Monument are always special. The tension builds among riders and fans alike, and time seems to move slowly until the moment the race finally begins. This Saturday, 21 March, Milano-Sanremo 2026 will take place with much of the attention centred on Tadej Pogacar.

Since the end of last season, the Slovenian star’s pursuit of victory in La Classicissima has been widely discussed. For Pogacar, Milano-Sanremo is considered one of the two major targets of his season, even ahead of the Tour de France. His ambition to eventually win all five Monuments has also helped fuel one of the sport’s most compelling rivalries with Mathieu van der Poel.

It was the Dutchman who denied Pogacar victory in 2025. After launching an attack on the Cipressa and repeatedly accelerating on the Poggio, Pogacar was unable to drop his rival, who went on to win one of the most memorable races of the season. As a result, Van der Poel will once again be the biggest obstacle between Pogacar and the Monument he still seeks.

However, Van der Poel will not be the only rider Pogacar must overcome. The start list for the first Monument of the season features an exceptionally strong field, including riders such as Tom Pidcock, Filippo Ganna, Jasper Philipsen, Wout van Aert, Matteo Jorgenson, Giulio Pellizzari, Paul Magnier, Julian Alaphilippe, Jonathan Milan, Tobias Lund Andresen and Alex Aranburu.

Among them, five riders stand out as the most significant rivals.

Unsurprisingly, the first and most obvious rival is Mathieu van der Poel. The Alpecin-Premier Tech rider is aiming for the ninth Monument victory of his career and a third Milano-Sanremo title after his wins in 2023 and 2025.

In fact, it is difficult to place Pogacar ahead of Van der Poel as the favourite. The Dutchman arrives in excellent form after beginning his season with a solo victory at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, followed by Tirreno-Adriatico, where he collected two stage wins.

There is also a factor that could work in his favour. While Isaac del Toro remains part of Pogacar’s support group, the Slovenian has recently lost two key domestiques who could have been important in launching attacks on the Cipressa. Jhonatan Narvaez was injured during stage four of the Tour Down Under, while Tim Wellens crashed at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne.

Once again, the race could hinge on whether Van der Poel can follow Pogacar’s expected attack on the Cipressa. Last year’s race showed that the Poggio may not be difficult enough for Pogacar to drop his biggest rival. Filippo Ganna was even able to return to the front group and join the sprint between the three riders.

That performance explains why Filippo Ganna is widely viewed as one of the main contenders behind Pogacar and Van der Poel. The Italian finished second in the 2025 edition and could again be in contention if he manages to stay close to the leaders over both the Cipressa and the Poggio.

Although he is best known as a time trial specialist, Ganna has shown he possesses the strength to withstand Pogacar’s accelerations in Sanremo. His chances may even be stronger than those of pure sprinters such as Jasper Philipsen, Paul Magnier or Matthew Brennan, who will also be hoping to play a role in the finale.

For Tom Pidcock, this could be one of the best opportunities of his career to win Milano-Sanremo. The British rider has already shown promising form this season with second place at Clasica Jaen Paraiso Interior and a top-seven finish at Strade Bianche.

Pidcock’s strengths suit the race well. He combines strong climbing ability with the punch required to follow attacks on the Cipressa, while also possessing an impressive finishing sprint. In a sprint against riders such as Pogacar and Van der Poel, he could have a genuine chance of victory.

However, positioning will be crucial. In last year’s race, Pidcock was poorly placed as the peloton approached the Cipressa and later crashed, ending his chances of competing for the win before eventually finishing 40th.

Team Visma | Lease a Bike also have several options for Milano-Sanremo. Matteo Jorgenson impressed at Tirreno-Adriatico, but if the race ends in a reduced sprint, Wout van Aert may offer the stronger option.

While Van Aert’s current form may not immediately suggest he can match Pogacar, the Belgian has previously shown he can compete with the Slovenian when the opportunity arises.

One notable example came at the 2025 Tour de France, where Van Aert managed to defeat Pogacar on the final stage in Montmartre. If the Visma rider arrives at the finish with the leading group, he could still be a dangerous contender.

The final name on the list is Tobias Lund Andresen. This position could have gone to Jasper Philipsen or Paul Magnier, but crashes on the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico may affect both riders.

Instead, Andresen emerges as an intriguing outsider. The Decathlon CMA CGM Team rider has started the 2026 season strongly, already claiming three victories, including the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race, along with several close results.

If he manages to survive the attacks from Pogacar and reach the finish in a reduced sprint, his current form suggests he could be a serious contender for the Monument.