ANALYSIS: Why is Tadej Pogacar so desperate to win Milano-Sanremo?

Tadej Pogacar may have completed the greatest season we have ever seen in cycling in 2024. He became the first man in a quarter of a century to win the Giro-Tour double, winning 12 stages on the way. Yes, 12! Before them, Pogacar had mastered Strade Bianche and Liege-Bastogne-Liege with two stunning solo attacks, and then he defied logic with a monstrous 100km solo attack to blow the field away and win the world title.

With his world title victory in Zurich, he came just the third man to win the triple crown, by winning the Giro, Tour and World title in the same season. He truly was unbeatable this year, and we may never see anything like it again, unless of course Pogacar has got other ideas.

The obvious answer is the Vuelta a Espana, the one grand tour Pogacar has yet to win. Many wanted Pogacar to try and win the red jersey this year, to become the first man to win all three grand tours in the same season. Whilst it sounds like Pogacar may be considering a Tour-Vuelta double next year, the race he is truly desperate to win is the first monument of the year: Milano-Sanremo.

In this article, we’re going to take a look at why the Slovenian is so committed to winning this monument, why he hasn’t managed it so far, and whether 2025 could be the year he pulls it off.

Pogacar’s desire to win Milano-Sanremo has been openly acknowledged by his team and himself. Fabio Baldato, the director sportif at UAE Team Emirates, has been clear about the Slovenian’s intentions. "Tadej wants the Sanremo more than anything,” Baldato said, highlighting just how important the monument has become to the world’s best rider. He elaborated on the technical challenges of the race, acknowledging, "It is a fast and technical race, but it is also true that when Tadej sets his mind on a goal, he manages to reach it."

For Pogacar, Milano-Sanremo is not just another race, it’s a rarity in the face it is one he has yet to win. Reflecting on his earlier performances, he stated, "I am already thinking about how I will race, to do something different from previous years. In 2025, it will be a challenge, but I will try to win."

This statement demonstrates Pogacar’s awareness of the unique challenges posed by Milano-Sanremo, a race that demands much more than incredible climbing power. The fact that he is already strategizing for the event underlines how much it means to him, given 2025 has not even begun yet. While he has conquered most of the toughest races in the cycling calendar, this monument continues to stand out as a significant omission from UAE Team Emirates leader's illustrious palmarès.

Let’s take a look at why he hasn’t managed to stand on the top step of the podium at this monument before.

Milano-Sanremo is known as "La Classicissima" for a reason. Its blend of length, climbs, and unpredictable finishes makes it one of the most challenging races to win, it truly has a little bit of everything. Pogacar, despite his brilliance, has encountered specific hurdles that have kept him from claiming victory.

In his debut Milano-Sanremo in 2020, Pogacar finished 12th. It was a race dominated by the sprinters, with the Poggio failing to create the decisive splits Pogacar needed. At this stage in his career, Pogacar was still announcing himself to the cycling world, and he was yet to be so greatly feared in the peloton as he is now.

Pogacar made headlines for his countless attacks at the racing in 2022, especially by launching multiple attacks on the Poggio. His climbing ability by this point was very much apparent, but Matej Mohoric’s superb descent sealed the victory. Mohoric’s technical skills and fearless approach on the downhill left Pogacar unable to bridge the gap, and he ultimately finished 5th.

And so the wait went on.

The 2023 edition saw Pogacar once again attacking on the Poggio, this time against his formidable monument rival Mathieu van der Poel. Despite Pogacar’s efforts to break away, Van der Poel countered with a devastating solo attack, winning the race. Pogacar finished 4th, frustrated by his inability to stay with Van der Poel on the descent.

In the end, the 2023 edition was all about Mathieu van der Poel, who was in a league of his own.

In 2024, Pogacar gave another valiant effort, attacking on the Poggio to try and split the field, but once again he was chased down by Mathieu van der Poel. In the end, the race culminated in a sprint, with Van der Poel’s teammate Jasper Philipsen emerging victorious. Pogacar’s third-place finish highlighted the recurring issue of powerful sprinters neutralizing his climbing advantage in the final kilometres.

Across these editions, Pogacar has consistently struggled with two main factors: the unpredictability of the Poggio and be outsprinted by more powerful riders. The Poggio, while steep enough to favour climbers, is not long or challenging enough to guarantee a decisive split.

Additionally, the descent and flat finish often allow groups to reform, leaving Pogacar vulnerable to faster riders. If he can’t drop them on the Poggio, there’s usually riders with more power in their legs to leave him behind in the sprint.

The short answer, is yes. Absolutely, he can, and if he does, Paris-Roubaix will be the only monument left for him to win. But, he may have to address his approach to do so. The Cipressa and Poggio are the two key climbs, but neither is particularly long or steep. While Pogacar excels on such terrain, the proximity of the Poggio to the finish often favours sprinters and all-rounders, who manage to hold on as the climbers race up the Poggio. To win, Pogacar may need to attack earlier, perhaps on the Cipressa, to force a more selective race before reaching the Poggio. If he can enter the final either on his own or with other climbers, he’d be nearly guaranteed the victory as he has a more powerful sprint than other GC riders.

The descent from the Poggio and the flat run-in to Sanremo are also crucial elements. Pogacar’s rivals, particularly those with strong descending skills like Matej Mohoric or those with sprinting capabilities like Jasper Philipsen, pose huge threats. Pogacar must not only create a gap on the climb but also maintain it on the technical descent and final stretch. So, Pogacar should be watching out for the likes of Tom Pidcock and Mohoric if they’re still in touch on the descent.

Given Pogacar’s crazy catalogue of long-range attacks in 2024, he could consider unleashing one earlier in the race, potentially on the Cipressa. By disrupting the peloton’s rhythm and forcing rivals to chase, Pogacar might eliminate the strongest sprinters before the Poggio. Just like he did at the World Championships, Il Lombardia, and Strade Bianche in 2024, Pogacar could try and finish the race, before the others have a chance to get started.

Winning Milano-Sanremo in 2025 will not be easy, but Pogacar’s raw desire to win the race usually means he will. If he can blow the race apart before it comes down to a sprint, the likes of Mathieu van der Poel, Jasper Philipsen or Wout van Aert may not have a chance to try and outmuscle him.