ANALYSIS: Tadej Pogacar vs Remco Evenepoel | Will Liege-Bastogne-Liege be a two-horse race?

Thursday, 24 April 2025 at 14:00

This Sunday, April 27th, the fourth Monument of the 2025 cycling season takes centre stage, Liège–Bastogne–Liège. It’s not just any race. For cycling fans, it’s a sacred date in the calendar, marking the oldest Monument of them all and a final crescendo to the Spring Classics.

With a compelling narrative unfolding between Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel, the 111th edition has all the makings of an instant classic. But will it be a two-horse race?

Race history

Liège–Bastogne–Liège is affectionately known as La Doyenne, ‘The Old Lady’. First held in 1892, this Ardennes Monument is not only a physical test, with over 4,000 metres of climbing packed into 250+ km, but also a mental one. As one of the most grueling one-day races, it favours riders who can truly bite down and survive on a day where weather can play a part too.

Eddy Merckx, unsurprisingly, holds the record with five victories, dominating in an era where the Belgian rider made every race his own. Modern greats like Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert, and Danilo Di Luca have all left their marks here. But in recent years, the narrative has narrowed to two names: Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel.

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Each rider has two wins apiece in the last four editions. Yet, due to injury, scheduling, and circumstance, they have never gone head-to-head here, until now.

Spring 2025 so far

The 2025 Spring Classics have already been nothing short of extraordinary. Three Monuments have produced thrilling spectacles, and one rivalry has dominated the conversation: Tadej Pogacar vs Mathieu van der Poel.

At Milano–Sanremo, Van der Poel beat Pogacar in a late attack that saw him claim victory in style, and denying Pogacar the race he wants to win more than any. Pogacar retaliated at the Tour of Flanders, where his climbing ability and a long-range attack that left Van der Poel in the dust. The Dutchman, however, had the last word with a stunning victory at Paris–Roubaix, holding off Pogacar, who came second on his debut despite a crash.

Can Evenepoel replicate Mathieu van der Poel and defeat Pogacar?

With Van der Poel shifting focus to mountain biking ahead of the summer and taking a break from road racing until the Tour de France, the Spring story now pivots. Enter Remco Evenepoel.

The return of the Golden Boy

Evenepoel’s return to racing after a long injury layoff has come with renewed optimism. After months out following his crash with a van last December, he made a statement in his comeback by winning his very first race back at Brabantse Pijl last Friday.

But it was the Amstel Gold Race that truly signalled his intent. Facing off against Pogacar for the first time since Il Lombardia 2024, Evenepoel was part of a thrilling finale. When Pogacar launched one of his trademark solo attacks, many assumed the race was over. Historically, when Pogacar gets 30 seconds, it’s game over.

But not this time.

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Alongside Lidl-Trek's Mattias Skjelmose, Evenepoel chased hard. On the Cauberg's penultimate ascent, the pair closed the gap to just 15 seconds. With 10km to go, it was down to 10. Pogacar, unusually, kept glancing back. The unthinkable was happening, he was being reeled in!

By the 8km mark, they made contact. Evenepoel immediately tried to slingshot over Pogacar, but the world champion was alert and shut it down. In the end, Skjelmose took an incredible win in a stunning three-up sprint, with Pogacar second and Evenepoel third. But the result mattered less than the message: Remco Evenepoel is back, and he’s dangerous.

Of course, Remco was comprehensively beaten by Pogacar yesterday at La Fleche Wallonne. But don’t let that performance, on a climb that doesn’t suit him, take away from just how impressive the first 2 races of his comeback were.

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Yes, Pogacar looked imperious yesterday. But if anyone can stop him on Sunday, it is Remco.

Years in the making

Despite dominating the last four editions of Liège, Pogacar and Evenepoel have never faced off here. A glance at the race history explains why.

2021: Pogacar won in a five-man sprint, denying Julian Alaphilippe. Evenepoel was not in the race.
2022: Evenepoel blew the field apart with a stunning solo attack. Pogacar was absent due to a family bereavement.
2023: Evenepoel repeated the feat while wearing the rainbow jersey. Pogacar crashed out early with a wrist injury.
2024: Pogacar demolished the field, while Evenepoel was recovering from his Basque Country crash.

So despite sharing the past four wins (two each) there has never been a Pogacar vs Evenepoel duel on these roads. That all changes on Sunday.

Their monument head-to-head record

Their overall Monument head-to-head? Four races:

2021 Il Lombardia: Pogacar wins
2023 Liège–Bastogne–Liège: Evenepoel wins (Pogacar DNF)
2023 Il Lombardia: Pogacar wins
2024 Il Lombardia: Pogacar wins, Evenepoel second, over three minutes behind

In Monuments where both have raced, Pogacar leads 3-1. But in recent weeks, there are signs that the gap may be closing.

Fatigue setting in?

Pogacar has been in sublime form this spring, but his calendar has been relentless. From Milano–Sanremo to Tour of Flanders, Paris–Roubaix, and Amstel Gold, he’s been the constant presence.

And though he’s delivered world-class performances, there are flickers of weariness. His eyes darting back at Amstel, his inability to hold off the chase, and his eventual second place, while still elite, hint that even Tadej Pogacar has limits.

Evenepoel, by contrast, is fresh. Buoyed by a winning return, he showed resilience, patience, and strength at Amstel. With a week to recover, he’ll line up at Liège with sharper legs and a clear focus.

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Of course, Pogacar will still be the favourite. He is the world champion, the Giro-Tour winner, and the defending champion at Liege for a reason. But Evenepoel is a monuments man himself, the double Olympic champion, and a former world champion too. Could he pull off his first true victory over Pogacar on Sunday?

A two-horse race?

With Van der Poel absent, Wout van Aert preparing for the Giro, and the likes of Tom Pidcock and Julian Alaphilippe seemingly not in peak form, the 2025 Liège–Bastogne–Liège does look like a duel between two cycling giants. That’s not disrespect to the rest of the bunch, but Pogacar and Evenepoel do appear to be a step ahead.

Tactically, Pogacar will likely stick to his guns: attack early, isolate rivals, and try to ride solo to glory. Evenepoel, however, now knows he can match this. His ability to time the chase and react late adds a new dynamic to the expected script.

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There will be others, Skjelmose of course beat them both last weekend, but the main event is clear. The fourth Monument of the year is set to be the perfect pre-Tour de France battle between 2 of the sports best GC riders.

A win for either would not just be a third at Liège, but would tie them with legends like Moreno Argentin and Fred De Bruyne. For Pogacar, this would also confirm his dominance across the Monuments in a season where he’s challenged himself on cobbles, climbs, and sprints, and it would be an ominous warning ahead of the summer.

For Evenepoel, a win would mark a stunning return and more importantly, a psychological edge over his rival. Yes, Pogacar and Evenepoel are friendly, but so far it is undeniable that Pogacar has the edge, but Evenepoel can make a serious statement if he turns the tables this weekend.

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And symbolically? This is the first time both are in top shape and lining up to clash at the oldest Monument. And we simply cannot wait.

The verdict

After three breathless Monuments, Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2025 has much to live up to. But with Pogacar and Evenepoel finally set to face off on its hallowed roads, it may just top them all.

They’ve danced around each other for years at Liège. This Sunday, they’ll finally clash. Let us know below who you think will come out on top!

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The Balanced Cyclist: Living Well Between the Rides

"I was almost in tears... Finishing ahead of Tom Pidcock and Remco Evenepoel" - Kevin Vauquelin runner-up at La Fleche Wallonne for second year in a row