ANALYSIS: Tadej Pogacar vs Remco Evenepoel | Will Liege-Bastogne-Liege be a two-horse race?
CyclingThursday, 24 April 2025 at 14:00
This Sunday, April 27th, the fourth Monument of the 2025
cycling season takes centre stage, Liège–Bastogne–Liège. It’s not just any
race. For cycling fans, it’s a sacred date in the calendar, marking the oldest
Monument of them all and a final crescendo to the Spring Classics.
With a
compelling narrative unfolding between Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel, the
111th edition has all the makings of an instant classic. But will it be a
two-horse race?
Race history
Liège–Bastogne–Liège is affectionately known as La
Doyenne, ‘The Old Lady’. First held in 1892, this Ardennes Monument is not
only a physical test, with over 4,000 metres of climbing packed into 250+ km,
but also a mental one. As one of the most grueling one-day races, it favours
riders who can truly bite down and survive on a day where weather can play a
part too.
Eddy Merckx, unsurprisingly, holds the record with five
victories, dominating in an era where the Belgian rider made every race his
own. Modern greats like Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert, and Danilo Di
Luca have all left their marks here. But in recent years, the narrative has
narrowed to two names: Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel.
Each rider has two wins apiece in the last four editions.
Yet, due to injury, scheduling, and circumstance, they have never gone
head-to-head here, until now.
Spring 2025 so far
The 2025 Spring Classics have already been nothing short of
extraordinary. Three Monuments have produced thrilling spectacles, and one
rivalry has dominated the conversation: Tadej Pogacar vs Mathieu van der Poel.
At Milano–Sanremo, Van der Poel beat Pogacar in a late
attack that saw him claim victory in style, and denying Pogacar the race he
wants to win more than any. Pogacar retaliated at the Tour of Flanders, where
his climbing ability and a long-range attack that left Van der Poel in the
dust. The Dutchman, however, had the last word with a stunning victory at
Paris–Roubaix, holding off Pogacar, who came second on his debut despite a
crash.
Can Evenepoel replicate Mathieu van der Poel and defeat Pogacar?
With Van der Poel shifting focus to mountain biking ahead of
the summer and taking a break from road racing until the Tour de France, the
Spring story now pivots. Enter Remco Evenepoel.
The return of the Golden Boy
Evenepoel’s return to racing after a long injury layoff has
come with renewed optimism. After months out following his crash with a van
last December, he made a statement in his comeback by winning his very first
race back at Brabantse Pijl last Friday.
But it was the Amstel Gold Race that truly signalled his
intent. Facing off against Pogacar for the first time since Il Lombardia 2024,
Evenepoel was part of a thrilling finale. When Pogacar launched one of his
trademark solo attacks, many assumed the race was over. Historically, when
Pogacar gets 30 seconds, it’s game over.
But not this time.
Alongside Lidl-Trek's Mattias Skjelmose, Evenepoel chased
hard. On the Cauberg's penultimate ascent, the pair closed the gap to just 15
seconds. With 10km to go, it was down to 10. Pogacar, unusually, kept glancing
back. The unthinkable was happening, he was being reeled in!
By the 8km mark, they made contact. Evenepoel immediately
tried to slingshot over Pogacar, but the world champion was alert and shut it
down. In the end, Skjelmose took an incredible win in a stunning three-up
sprint, with Pogacar second and Evenepoel third. But the result mattered less
than the message: Remco Evenepoel is back, and he’s dangerous.
Of course, Remco was comprehensively beaten by Pogacar
yesterday at La Fleche Wallonne. But don’t let that performance, on a climb that
doesn’t suit him, take away from just how impressive the first 2 races of his
comeback were.
Yes, Pogacar looked imperious yesterday. But if anyone can
stop him on Sunday, it is Remco.
Years in the making
Despite dominating the last four editions of Liège, Pogacar
and Evenepoel have never faced off here. A glance at the race history explains
why.
- 2021: Pogacar won in a five-man sprint, denying Julian Alaphilippe. Evenepoel was not in the race.
- 2022: Evenepoel blew the field apart with a stunning solo attack. Pogacar was absent due to a family bereavement.
- 2023: Evenepoel repeated the feat while wearing the rainbow jersey. Pogacar crashed out early with a wrist injury.
- 2024: Pogacar demolished the field, while Evenepoel was recovering from his Basque Country crash.
So despite sharing the past four wins (two each) there has
never been a Pogacar vs Evenepoel duel on these roads. That all changes on
Sunday.
Their monument head-to-head record
Their overall Monument head-to-head? Four races:
- 2021 Il Lombardia: Pogacar wins
- 2023 Liège–Bastogne–Liège: Evenepoel wins (Pogacar DNF)
- 2023 Il Lombardia: Pogacar wins
- 2024 Il Lombardia: Pogacar wins, Evenepoel second, over three minutes behind
In Monuments where both have raced, Pogacar leads 3-1. But in
recent weeks, there are signs that the gap may be closing.
Fatigue setting in?
Pogacar has been in sublime form this spring, but his
calendar has been relentless. From Milano–Sanremo to Tour of Flanders,
Paris–Roubaix, and Amstel Gold, he’s been the constant presence.
And though he’s delivered world-class performances, there
are flickers of weariness. His eyes darting back at Amstel, his inability to
hold off the chase, and his eventual second place, while still elite, hint that
even Tadej Pogacar has limits.
Evenepoel, by contrast, is fresh. Buoyed by a winning
return, he showed resilience, patience, and strength at Amstel. With a week to
recover, he’ll line up at Liège with sharper legs and a clear focus.
Of course, Pogacar will still be the favourite. He is the
world champion, the Giro-Tour winner, and the defending champion at Liege for a
reason. But Evenepoel is a monuments man himself, the double Olympic champion,
and a former world champion too. Could he pull off his first true victory over
Pogacar on Sunday?
A two-horse race?
With Van der Poel absent, Wout van Aert preparing for the
Giro, and the likes of Tom Pidcock and Julian Alaphilippe seemingly not in peak
form, the 2025 Liège–Bastogne–Liège does look like a duel between two cycling
giants. That’s not disrespect to the rest of the bunch, but Pogacar and
Evenepoel do appear to be a step ahead.
Tactically, Pogacar will likely stick to his guns: attack
early, isolate rivals, and try to ride solo to glory. Evenepoel, however, now
knows he can match this. His ability to time the chase and react late adds a
new dynamic to the expected script.
There will be others, Skjelmose of course beat them both
last weekend, but the main event is clear. The fourth Monument of the year is
set to be the perfect pre-Tour de France battle between 2 of the sports best GC
riders.
A win for either would not just be a third at Liège, but
would tie them with legends like Moreno Argentin and Fred De Bruyne. For
Pogacar, this would also confirm his dominance across the Monuments in a season
where he’s challenged himself on cobbles, climbs, and sprints, and it would be
an ominous warning ahead of the summer.
For Evenepoel, a win would mark a stunning return and more
importantly, a psychological edge over his rival. Yes, Pogacar and Evenepoel
are friendly, but so far it is undeniable that Pogacar has the edge, but
Evenepoel can make a serious statement if he turns the tables this weekend.
And symbolically? This is the first time both are in top
shape and lining up to clash at the oldest Monument. And we simply cannot wait.
The verdict
After three breathless Monuments, Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2025
has much to live up to. But with Pogacar and Evenepoel finally set to face off
on its hallowed roads, it may just top them all.
They’ve danced around each other for years at Liège. This
Sunday, they’ll finally clash. Let us know below who you think will come out on
top!
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