ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar vs Remco Evenepoel: Head to head record in time trials

The duel between Remco Evenepoel and Tadej Pogacar at this Sunday’s world championships time trial could be one of the stories of the season. Both are already serial champions, Pogacar with four Tours de France, a Giro, a world title, and countless classics, Evenepoel with a Vuelta, rainbow jerseys and Olympic golds, but when they meet against the clock, the numbers tilt heavily toward the Belgian. In ten direct contests, Evenepoel has beaten Pogacar eight times. And yet, those two defeats tell a different story: both came on climbing-heavy routes, the exact terrain that awaits them in Kigali this Sunday at the World Championships.

Their rivalry in time trials is not simply about seconds on a results sheet. It is a clash of styles. Evenepoel is the perfect time triallist: outrageously aerodynamic, relentless, and almost always flawless on flat or rolling roads. Pogacar, by contrast, is a rider who thrives when the road rises, able to turn a time trial into a climbing race where his explosive acceleration and pacing instincts give him an edge. Kigali’s 40.6-kilometre course, with 680 metres of elevation and a cobbled climb to finish, sits exactly between those worlds. To understand why this matters, it is worth tracing their history head-to-head, race by race.

The first time they lined up together in a major TT was the European Championships in 2021. The course in Trentino was short and flat, just 22.4 kilometres. Stefan Küng took the title ahead of Filippo Ganna, while Evenepoel rode to third. Pogacar finished twelfth, almost a minute behind his Belgian rival. The gap was large and established an early pattern: on pancake-flat terrain, Evenepoel’s engine was simply superior.

That same season, at the World Championships in Flanders, the story repeated. Over 43.3 kilometres of near-perfect flat roads, Ganna won ahead of Wout van Aert, with Evenepoel again taking third. Pogacar was down in tenth, more than a minute adrift. Two races in, the score stood at 2–0 to Evenepoel, both by wide margins.

Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 offered the first hint of a closer battle. The opening stage, a 13.9-kilometre flat test, was once more won by Ganna, but Evenepoel finished second and Pogacar third. The gap between them was just seven seconds, the closest it had ever been. Evenepoel still had the upper hand, but Pogacar was improving, and crucially, this time trial contained small rises that narrowed the margins.

Later that season came the World Championships in Wollongong, Australia. The course was lumpy but not mountainous, and Tobias Foss stunned the field to win. Evenepoel took third, less than a minute from gold, while Pogacar finished sixth, 40 seconds behind his Belgian rival.

It was in 2023 that the gap widened again. The World Championships in Stirling provided Evenepoel with his first rainbow jersey in the time trial, a performance that underlined his supremacy on technical, power-based routes. The 47.8-kilometre course contained 280 vertical metres and a final kilometre at nearly 5%. Evenepoel thrived, beating Ganna by 12 seconds and leaving Josh Tarling in third. Pogacar, meanwhile, finished 21st, more than three minutes down. It was their most lopsided time trial to date, proof that when Evenepoel is at his best, Pogacar struggles to keep pace on courses with long sections of sustained power and aerodynamic benefits.

Then came the Tour de France 2024, and with it a new chapter. Stage 7, Evenepoel’s debut time trial in the race, stretched over 25 kilometres with 283 vertical metres. It was a day when he announced himself on the Tour in the most emphatic way possible. The Belgian took his first Tour stage win, but it was close. Pogacar, who would go on to win the yellow jersey, finished second, just 12 seconds behind. Evenepoel had looked secure throughout most of the ride, but in the final kilometres he suffered a scare with a mechanical issued which quickly resolved itself. Still, the victory belonged to him, and it marked his arrival as a genuine Tour contender. Primoz Roglic was third, more than half a minute behind.

Stage 21 of the same Tour brought the first crack in the record. Pogacar produced a masterpiece on the final time trial from Monaco to Nice, a 35-kilometre course packed with climbing. The route included the ascent of La Turbie, 8.1 kilometres at 6.5%, and the steep Col d’Èze, 1.6 kilometres at 8.1%, before a plunge into Nice. It was a proper climber’s time trial, and Pogacar made it his own, sealing his third Tour de France title with a dominant ride and 6th stage win of last year’s Tour. He finished over a minute ahead of Evenepoel, who placed third behind Jonas Vingegaard.

For the first time, Pogacar had beaten Evenepoel on a time trial bike, and he had done it comprehensively on terrain that suited him perfectly. Evenepoel, however, still left the Tour with the white jersey and a podium place in his debut, underscoring that his progress in stage racing was intact.

The duel rolled into 2025, beginning at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Stage 4 was a 17.4-kilometre test with 214 metres of elevation. Evenepoel was irresistible, winning by 20 seconds over Vingegaard, with Matteo Jorgenson third. Pogacar, on the other hand, had one of his rare off-days, finishing nearly 50 seconds down. The victory reaffirmed Evenepoel’s consistency on medium courses, the sort of profile where pacing and raw power still outweigh climbing fireworks.

At the 2025 Tour de France, their rivalry intensified again. Stage 5 offered another flat-to-rolling time trial, 33 kilometres with just 191 metres of climbing. Evenepoel delivered his second Tour stage win, 16 seconds ahead of Pogacar. It was classic Remco: steady, aerodynamic, controlled. Even though injuries in the winter had disrupted his season, his time trialling remained unshaken.

But the pendulum swung violently back on Stage 13. This was the Peyragudes mountain time trial, 10.9 kilometres in length but with a savage 645 metres of vertical elevation, finishing on the airstrip where the James Bond film Tomorrow Never Dies was shot. The final ramp hit 13%, a wall that broke rhythm and broke Evenepoel.

Pogacar soared to victory in exactly 23 minutes, Vingegaard finished 36 seconds slower, and Evenepoel imploded. He finished twelfth, 2 minutes and 39 seconds behind Pogacar, passed on the road and visibly suffering. It was, by his own admission, his worst day on a bike. The contrast was bleak: Pogacar was untouchable on the climb, Evenepoel exposed as mortal when the time trial became a pure uphill effort.

Those ten races give us a clear pattern. On flat or rolling courses, Evenepoel holds an overwhelming advantage. The record is 8–2 in his favour, and most of his wins came by significant margins. Pogacar, by contrast, has only beaten Evenepoel on climbing-heavy time trials: the 2024 Stage 21 Monaco–Nice TT and the 2025 Peyragudes mountain TT. Both involved steep gradients, both required the sort of sustained uphill effort that neutralises pure aero power, and both brought out Pogacar’s climbing brilliance.

Now they arrive in Kigali. The course is 40.6 kilometres long, with 680 metres of climbing. It is not flat, and it is not a pure mountain TT either. It begins with eight kilometres of calm, then slams into the Côte de Nyanza, 2.5 kilometres at nearly 6%. A descent follows, then a return ascent of the same hill from the gentler side, 6.6 kilometres at 3.5%.

By the time they descend again and reach 31.6 kilometres, the Côte de Péage awaits, two kilometres at 6%, before the brutal Côte de Kimihurura, 1.3 kilometres at 6.3% over cobblestones. The finish rises all the way to the Kigali Convention Centre at 4% for the final kilometre. It is a course designed to punish mistakes and amplify strengths.

When compared to their past encounters, Kigali sits closer to Pogacar’s two victories than to Evenepoel’s flat-road dominations. The elevation gain of 680 metres is far greater than the Dauphiné’s 214 or the Tour de France Stage 5’s 191, where Evenepoel won. It is also much longer than the Peyragudes TT, which was just 10.9 kilometres, but it contains more overall climbing than Nice in 2024.

The difference is that Kigali mixes climbs with long descents and technical sections. It isn’t a straight mountain climb like Peyragudes, but it isn’t a flat drag like Zurich last year either. It demands balance: pace the climbs without blowing, recover on the descents without losing speed, and attack the cobbled ramp without cracking before the line.

For Evenepoel, Kigali is a test of adaptation. He cannot simply rely on his aerodynamic position and steady wattage; he must climb efficiently and survive the repeated accelerations. His track record shows he can handle rolling courses, but on steep uphill finishes he has cracked, and he will need to be in 2024 climbing form this Sunday.

For Pogacar, Kigali is an opportunity, his best opportunity in fact. His two victories over Evenepoel have both come on similar profiles, and the cobbles of Kimihurura may well suit his punchy acceleration. If he stays close on the flatter sections, he will back himself to deliver on the climbs.

The rivalry stands at 8–2, but the scoreline disguises the nuance. Kigali is a course that blurs the line between power and climbing, a hybrid that neither rider can claim as their pure territory. For Pogacar, it is a chance to prove that when the road rises, he is superior. For Evenepoel, it is a chance to silence the ghosts of Peyragudes and reassert his supremacy.