ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard: Who does the 2025 Tour de France route suit best?

The 2025 Tour de France route has officially been unveiled, and it presents a distinct departure from the mountain-heavy opening weeks that have characterized recent editions. This time, the race will truly build up to its high-stakes climax, with key mountain stages and time trials promising to shape the general classification in the latter half. With Tadej Pogacar's recent dominant win in 2024 and Jonas Vingegaard’s formidable track record in high-altitude challenges, fans are already abuzz with speculation about who the route may favour. Here, we dissect the 2025 parcours and examine where Pogacar, Vingegaard, and potential challengers might gain or lose time.

The race will start in Lille on Saturday, 5th July 2025, and end on Sunday, 27th July. Spanning 21 stages over a total of 3,320km, a slight decrease from the 3,498km of 2024, this edition of the Tour de France is will be the 112th in its history.

For the general classification (GC) contenders, the action will take time to ignite. Rather than immediate high-altitude tests, the Tour opens with stages featuring hilltop finishes in Boulogne-sur-Mer, Mur-de-Bretagne, and Puy Sancy. However, the first true mountain stage does not arrive until Stage 10, where the riders will tackle the Pyrenees from Ennezat to Mont-Dore. This delayed high-mountain action deviates from recent Tour de France editions, where GC battles have often commenced in the opening week.

The initial time gaps may begin to appear in Stage 5, a 33km individual time trial in Caen. This stage favours both GC men and powerful riders, making it a critical day for riders who excel on flat and rolling terrain. Notably, this could serve as an early opportunity for Remco Evenepoel to assert himself, potentially even wearing the yellow jersey for the first time. The Belgian has demonstrated his prowess against the clock, winning a Tour de France time trial in 2024, finishing third in the overall standings, and clinching the young rider’s classification.

Evenepoel’s time-trialling credentials extend beyond the Tour; he is a double Olympic champion and a back-to-back world time trial champion. Caen’s relatively flat terrain may give him the perfect chance to grab an early lead, although the 33km distance could also work in favour of other powerful GC hopefuls, including Vingegaard and Pogacar, both of whom have improved significantly in time trials over the years. Or maybe Wout van Aert will pick up his first Tour de France stage win since 2022, which seems ridiculous to think is so long ago.

The second time trial, Stage 13, is starkly different. This 11km mountain time trial from Loudenvielle to Peyragudes is likely to create significant gaps in the GC. Mountain time trials have historically delivered drama, with both Pogacar and Vingegaard proving capable in these high-stakes stages. Pogacar famously conquered the hilly time trial from Monaco to Nice on the final day of the 2024 Tour, while Vingegaard has also showcased his skill in mountain time trials, making this a potential turning point in their rivalry.

In mountain time trials, the climbs are short, intense, and often unforgiving, rewarding climbers who can maintain a high power output over steep gradients. This stage could play in favour of Pogacar, who has excelled in explosive, short climbs. However, with Vingegaard’s well-documented ability to withstand prolonged efforts in high-altitude terrain, he could certainly be in contention for the win here, as of course will the likes of Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic.

The true high point of the 2025 Tour will likely come on Stage 16, a 172km journey from Montpellier to Mont Ventoux. It’s the first time this legendary climb will appear in the Tour since Vingegaard famously dropped Pogacar here in 2021, marking the Dane’s emergence as a legitimate GC contender. Riding in the young rider’s jersey while Pogacar was in yellow, Vingegaard was unexpectedly thrust into Jumbo-Visma’s leadership role after Primoz Roglic crashed out earlier in the Tour. On Ventoux, Vingegaard did what just about no one had been able to achieve until then: he dropped Pogacar on the climb, establishing himself as a formidable force.

Vingegaard’s display on Mont Ventoux in 2021 set the stage for his consecutive Tour wins in 2022 and 2023, as he put the first dents in Pogacar’s armour. Whilst Pogacar was back with the ultimate bang in 2024, this stage will undoubtedly be psychologically significant for both Pogacar and Vingegaard, as memories of that decisive moment in 2021 still linger. The slopes of Mont Ventoux, unforgiving and steep, will likely favour Vingegaard’s ability to maintain a steady rhythm on the long climbs.

As Pogacar and Vingegaard brace for another showdown, one climb stands out as potentially decisive: the Col de la Loze. Fancy a bit of Col de la Loze, Tadej? Nope, we didn’t think so. This is the mountain that saw the worst day of his career back in 2023.

Indeed, the Col de la Loze is a mountain that haunts Pogacar. In the 2023 Tour, he suffered a monumental collapse on its punishing gradients. In a gruelling queen stage, Felix Gall claimed victory from the breakaway with a solo attack, but the real story was Pogacar’s struggles. The Slovenian cracked early in the climb’s toughest section, losing substantial time to Vingegaard, over six minutes wich all but secured Vingegaard’s GC victory.

The Col de la Loze had been a brutal test, with the riders facing over 5,400 meters of climbing across a day filled with challenging gradients. Visma executed a perfect strategy, gradually tightening the noose until Pogacar cracked. The climb’s unrelenting nature, with gradients exceeding 20% in sections, seems to exploit Pogacar’s vulnerabilities.

Notably, Pogacar’s challenges on the Col de la Loze were not a one-off. He also lost time on this climb during the 2020 Tour, where he ceded 17 seconds to Roglic. While this was not as significant as his 2023 setback, the climb has consistently proved to be one of Pogacar’s weak points. As the 2025 route was unveiled, fans immediately began speculating whether the inclusion of this daunting ascent would once again play into Vingegaard’s hands.

After the disruptions caused by the 2024 Olympics in Paris, which forced the Tour to conclude in Nice, the 2025 edition will see a return to tradition with a final sprint down the Champs-Elysees. The iconic finish will cap off what promises to be an intense battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard, with potential surprises from other contenders like Evenepoel and possibly Roglic.

The combination of the Col de la Loze and Mont Ventoux seems designed to test riders on two very different types of climbs, which may favour Vingegaard’s strengths. Long, consistent gradients typically benefit riders with high threshold power, a trait that has helped Vingegaard dominate in previous Tours. Pogacar, known for his explosive style and punchy accelerations, may find these extended ascents more challenging.

The 2025 Tour route also presents opportunities for outsiders to shake up the GC, with Remco Evenepoel particularly well-suited to the varied time trials. His time-trialling prowess could make him a wildcard in the battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard. Should he secure an early lead in Caen, Evenepoel could force the Slovenian and Dane to chase, possibly leading to tactical complexities later in the race. The Belgian was much improved in the high mountains earlier this season, and is certainly the most likely rider to challenge Pogacar and Vingegaard, who have won the last five editions of the Tour between them.

Ultimately, the 2025 Tour de France route on paper favours Jonas Vingegaard’s strengths more than it does Pogacar, but if Pogacar continues his 2024 form then the Dane will need to be in his best ever shape to stand a chance. Vingegaard’s proven ability on long, steady climbs like Mont Ventoux and the Col de la Loze, combined with his consistent time-trial performance, positions him with a chance to regain his throne. While Pogacar will undoubtedly launch his own attacks, especially on shorter, steeper ascents, his struggles on the more demanding, high-altitude climbs suggest he may face challenges in repeating his 2024 success. Of course, he may also blow everyone away once again.

Fans are already marking their calendars for what promises to be another thrilling showdown between cycling’s top two GC riders. With Evenepoel in the mix and Roglic hopefully too, the 2025 edition of the Grand Boucle is shaping up to be an unforgettable clash of cycling titans.