ANALYSIS - Netcompany INEOS has a MASSIVE problem into the 2026 Tour de France, can it be fixed?

The 2026 Tour de France looms near. Within the space of less than three weeks, Netcompany INEOS will be lining in up in Barcelona, in need of a race that will justify the massive investment made in the team. But there are many problems, with some riders injured, others out of form; and an '8' that is far from certain at this time of year.

The British team has, before the start of the Giro d'Italia, presented a new sponsor in the form of Netcompany, a Danish IT company which has settled on a €100-million euro investment, spread throughout five seasons (equaling to €20 million a year). The team's future is safe, but the investment needs to be justified.

In the 2010's, the €50 million euro budget allowed the British team to dominate the sport, with four different Tour de France winners - and many more titles, as Chris Froome was a four-time winner himself. In the 2020's, this budget would not have the team at the absolute top of the sport, but would allow it to stay there.

But a set of transfers has decimated the team's Grand Tour potential, and its attempt to return to the top has been anything but smooth. Unfortunately for the team ran by Dave Brailsford, the 2026 Tour de France could end up being quite dark.

In 2020, the scenery looked set for INEOS to enter another golden decade. The previous five editions of the Tour had been won by it, and the past three had been won all by different riders. In this season, Chris Froome was recovering from his life-threatening crash, although it had been understood that his dominance of pro cycling was likely over.

He won in 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017. In 2018, it was Geraint Thomas who took over. The Welshman was not a 'young gun', but an experienced rider. Not the future of INEOS, but talented enough and a late bloomer when it came to his performances in the three-week races.

2019 gave way to the team's new bright jewel: Egan Bernal. That year, Bernal's high-altitude and long-climb performances took him to the yellow jersey at age 22, something very rare at the time. Money, experience, incredibly talented young riders... INEOS had it all. So how did it go wrong?

Many arguments could be used, some of them not at the team's fault. Bernal did not have a good Tour in 2020, but in 2021 recovered to win the Giro d'Italia. In 2022, he suffered a training crash during the off-season that put his life in danger, suffering multiple fractures and taking him out during almost the entire season. Whilst he's recovered his best level, he didn't take 'the leap' that many others have during the last few years, and he is not a realistic contender to win a Grand Tour in modern times.

The team's transfer policy and success is a big reason for its demise as a superpower. The team has lost GC men such as Richard Carapaz, Adam Yates, Richie Porte, Eddie Dunbar (all in 2022 alone), Tao Geoghegan Hart, Pavel Sivakov, Daniel Martínez, Luke Plapp... Of course, to argue all would be able to contest for a Grand Tour is not the point; but within these men some would continue having that ability in the current day, whilst others could provide key support.

The team also saw Geraint Thomas retire last winter whilst an internal spat saw Tom Pidcock leave the team in 2024. Pidcock would go on to finally prove his Grand Tour potential right after leaving the team. Several other transfers, such as Dylan van Baarle right after his Paris-Roubaix triumph; and Jhonatan Narváez at the end of 2024, proved to harm its classics block.

The British team had a major net loss. It signed Tobias Foss who never reached his potential as a Grand Tour contender; Leo Hayter who semi-retired from the sport whilst with the team; And Thymen Arensman who is perhaps the team's main GC hopeful for the upcoming years.

You could argue the rise of Joshua Tarling is also a very strong card, but there's only so much one rider can do, in the face of the departure of so many. The team, until this year, did not even have an official under-23 team - a slap to the face of those hoping to have the world's best team within a realistically small range of years. Whilst the likes of UAE, Visma, Lidl and Red Bull - BORA are reaping the benefits of their own homegrown talent; INEOS was trying to sign or buy them out from other teams. And whilst some could be brought in, the team was always chasing its rivals, not getting ahead.

In 2025 they have conducted important transfers. But more on that below...

Turned pro in 2020, Carlos Rodríguez could've been 'the one'. In 2020 still, the team did seem to get ahead of the competition with an incredible rider, a climber that came straight out of the juniors, but not one of the main men on the market. In 2021, he was second to Tobias Johannessen at the Tour de l'Avenir, before proving his Grand Tour potential in his debut back in 2022 - finishing sixth.

The next year at the Tour de France, Rodríguez finished fifth in the overall classification, in an edition ruled by the Tadej Pogacar-Jonas Vingegaard battle. As the duo fought between each other, Rodríguez took the biggest win of his career by winning in Morzine ahead of the two. At age 22 and with a lot of room to still grow, he had the most potential out of anyone to be the 'chosen one'.

In 2024, the Spaniard won the queen stages of Itzulia Basque Country and the Tour Auvergne, and won the GC at the Tour de Romandie. But Rodríguez has a big problem: He crashes. A lot.

In 2024 he did not take a step up, he was 7th at the Tour and 10th at the Vuelta. You could rule that out as a lesser year, which happens. But in 2025 his level went downhill. Rodríguez crashed at the UAE Tour and abandoned. Then at the Tour de France he crashed again, fracturing his pelvis and ending his season in July.

This year the Spaniard crashed hard and at speed once again at the Tour de Romandie. We could add his 2022 Vuelta crash, where he still finished high on GC despite a fall on the final week that left him bloodied all over his body. Rodríguez crashes constantly, as as we've seen in other riders, this is a major issue at a point in time where the peloton's level is constantly increasing.

Because instead of improving his level, the Spaniard is caught up in a cycle of recovering from injuries, and over the past year and a half that is what's marked his career the most.

Second at the Tour de la Provence was a promising start to 2026; but he was then 23rd at Paris-Nice; 26th in Catalunya; 12th in Romandie; and now 20th at Auvergne. It must be said he showed a good level this past week in France, finishing sixth on the final stage.

But he was also the team's third option, behind Oscar Onley and Kévin Vauquelin. That was shown in the team's TTT effort, where he was dropped well before the finale. In the end he finished the race as the team's strongest climber, but the bar was not set very high...

The team backed up Thymen Arensman and Egan Bernal for the Giro d'Italia, with Filippo Ganna and Egan Bernal chasing stage wins. A good plan, and it can be argued they almost achieved their set goals. At the Tour they were to count on Oscar Onley, Kévin Vauquelin and Carlos Rodríguez to aim for a strong GC; with Thymen Arensman also present to support in the mountains or also eye the GC... Dorian Godon to aim for the sprints and breakaways; Joshua Tarling and Michal Kwiatkowski to bring in a perfect mix of experience and raw power... And two more spots to be filled certainly with bright talents. Honestly, a good plan, an a well-rounded team.

But that is, if everyone is up to the task. Onley was fourth at last year's Tour, with minor support from Team Picnic PostNL. He is British, he is young, and his contract buyout cost the team millions. The team want him to be a leader and succeed, and that is well justified, he has shown on the road how good he is.

At Auvergne, he crashed, reportedly hanging on to a tree above a ravine, after coming down in the descent before Crest-Voland on stage 6. He avoided serious injuries, luckily, but suffered several minor injuries and also a dislocated shoulder. At the time of publishing, there is no confirmation if Onley will be making the trip to Barcelona. And if he does, he will be doing so coming back from a set of meaningful injuries. With the competition INEOS will face, just repeating a fourth place would already be an incredible result.

On that same day, Joshua Tarling crashed and suffered a fractured collarbone. This is a major issue for the team, who are going into the race with plenty top climbers, and in need to rouleurs to keep them towards the head of the peloton. In the absence of Filippo Ganna, Tarling had this task. If he is out of the race, the British team have to replace him, and there just aren't men with the incredible talent that the young Briton has.

Then we have Kévin Vauquelin. At Paris-Nice, the team backed up Onley and stayed with him in the crosswind stage, leaving the Frenchman alone behind and chasing. Onley later cracked, whilst Vauquelin showed tremendous legs. He was beyond livid at the end of that day. During the TTT in Auvergne, Vauquelin was again furious after Onley suffered a mechanical, and the decision was taken to wait for him. Vauquelin wanted the stage win, the yellow jersey and his own GC ambitions - which were made secondary on both races, both races in France by the way...

He was signed with the promise to also be a leader, and a man that is focused on his results. After Onley abandoned the race, and Carlos Rodríguez had lost time in Auvergne, the Frenchman actually did have the opportunity to impress and convince the team he was the man to fully back up in France this July. Last year with Arkéa, he had a stellar season and was also seventh at the Tour de France.

But this past week, he had a disappointing string of results in the mountain stages, and finished 15th in the overall classification. On the final mountain stage, he joined Laurens de Plus and Carlos Rodríguez in the day's breakaway, and both men looked to work for him. On the final climb, he was dropped whilst the duo was pacing at the head of the group.

It can be argued that Vauquelin's best form will still come later on, but the performance is not encouraging, and Vauquelin's top level is realistically only enough to net him a position in the Top10.

At the end of Auvergne the team is left figuratively stranded on the side of the road. Onley is injured and might not show up to the race; Vauquelin is out of form; and Rodríguez can step up to the task but a Top10 is also the best he can hope for with the peloton's current level. Thymen Arensman could show up as a surprise GC figure, but after the Giro d'Italia that is a big ask of the Dutchman.

But the team has so many GC options that they need to balance it out with domestiques. Dorian Godon is chasing his own results; the team can bring the likes of Sam Watson, Axel Laurance or Magnus Sheffield to the race, but these men are pure stage hunters and even if they fully commit to the domestique role, they are all riders for the hilly terrain, not flat roads or mountains.

The team could decide to abandon the GC as its main goal, make it secondary, and take stage hunters to the Tour with that being their priority. But that will also take a brave decision from Brailsford, Geraint Thomas et al. who have signed Onley and Vauquelin with the goal of fully backing them up.

It might be the right decision, somewhat putting the pressure away from the climbers, which is certain if they come into the race as the full-on leaders - specially when they have no guarantees of taking a top result.

The British team have a difficult decision to make in these upcoming weeks, as they must decide what their priority for the Tour de France will be. There is not much that will change during the Tour de Suisse as the team's Tour block was almost fully in Auvergne, and most of the racing results are already on INEOS' table.