ANALYSIS | Does this stat suggest Evenepoel can target Vingegaard in 2026?

Remco Evenepoel’s first month with Red Bull – Bora – hansgrohe has produced numbers that demand attention. Eight race days have yielded five victories, a 62.5 per cent win rate before the middle of February. Ok, so the level of competition has not mirrored what he will face in July, but the authority of his performances has stood out. More significantly, the context around those wins marks a sharp contrast to where he stood just 12 months ago.

Evenepoel has entered 2026 with a full winter behind him and a new team built with Grand Tour ambitions in mind, and it looks already like the blockbuster cycling transfer of the 2020s is paying off. A year earlier, his season had barely begun by this point. In fact, it had not begun at all. His 2025 campaign was derailed before it properly started when a December training crash left him with multiple fractures and nerve damage.

Let’s cast our minds back to this time last year, where the Belgian was in a very different spot.

“After a few weeks with the injury, we discovered a nerve injury,” Evenepoel said after the crash. “This one has not healed yet. There’s a part of the shoulder muscle that is not working at all for the moment.” He later admitted how close the situation felt to something more final: “If I were a tennis player, or a volleyball player, then my career would have been over. So luckily, I’m a cyclist.” Reflecting on the incident, he also conceded, “Of course, the injuries were quite severe.”

That disrupted winter pushed his 2025 debut back to April. By mid-February last year, he was still rehabilitating, still rebuilding strength, still waiting to join the competition. One thing’s for certain, the absence of a normal base period lingered throughout the season. He was able to return to racing, but the foundation was compromised, and it showed when the demands intensified.

The Tour de France exposed that fragility. Evenepoel began well and picked up a win in the first week, but faded dramatically in the mountains before abandoning at the end of week 2. “It just wasn’t working, I was empty,” he said afterwards. He offered further detail on the lead-in to the race: “After the Dauphiné, I haven’t been able to do a single training session either.” When pressed on the physical toll, he was blunt, saying “I couldn’t handle any intensity.”

Those admissions emphasised how much of the damage had been done months earlier. Grand Tours rarely forgive interrupted preparation. Evenepoel’s collapse was not simply a matter of bad legs on a single day, it was the accumulation of a winter without proper conditioning and a spring spent chasing lost form.

There was also the structural issue that followed him during his years at Soudal – Quick - Step. In the high mountains of the Tour, the Belgian often found himself isolated earlier than his principal rivals. Teams such as UAE Team Emirates and Visma Lease a Bike were able to deploy multiple climbing leaders deep into decisive stages.

Those rivals fielded superstars around Pogacar and Vingegaard, where Evenepoel was often left to fight on his own. Ilan Van Wilder defended the team at the time, arguing, “It’s very easy to always compare us with teams that use captains as domestiques, like UAE. In my opinion, that’s not a realistic comparison.” The comparison persisted regardless.

Red Bull – Bora – hansgrohe’s recruitment of Evenepoel was designed to change that dynamic. The project was not about collecting early-season trophies, it was about building a structure capable of sustaining him through three weeks in July. Still, the early trophies matter because they reveal condition and rhythm.

Five wins from eight days is not common in modern WorldTour racing, even if those races fall outside the sport’s hardest tier. The manner of the victories has been particularly impressive, as Evenepoel has won from breakaways and through controlled general classification efforts. His time trialling remains a weapon, and when the road tilts upward he has shown the capacity to attack decisively rather than merely follow wheels.

At the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, he surged clear on a brutal ramp on stage 4 to claim what was his fifth victory of the year. The move was calculated rather than reckless, but he looked the part. Evenepoel’s public tone has also shifted slightly. Ahead of a possible early-season duel with Tadej Pogacar, he stated, “We’re not avoiding anyone.”

He’s clearly up for a fight.

There is an obvious caveat: February form does not guarantee July endurance. The Tour de France is won on repeated Alpine and Pyrenean climbs where sustained pacing and team depth decide outcomes, and Evenepoel was destroyed by the Pyrenean phase last year. Evenepoel’s challenge will be to carry this condition forward without peaking too soon. He has addressed that concern directly. “There’s still room for improvement,” he said when asked about the possibility of hitting top form prematurely.

The comparison with this time last year remains stark. In February 2025, he was still two months away from pinning on a race number. Now he has already accumulated victories and race kilometres in his legs. That difference alone alters the trajectory of his season, as rather than playing catch-up, he is building.

One of the questions being whispered amongst fans is whether this start changes his standing relative to Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour. Beating Vingegaard over three weeks has proven one of the sport’s most demanding tasks. The Dane’s combination of climbing depth and team strength has been decisive in previous editions, although he has lost his coach and Simon Yates in recent weeks.

Yet preparation is rarely linear. Vingegaard himself has experienced early-season interruptions this year, postponing his planned debut due to a crash in training. Such setbacks do not define July, but they illustrate how quickly margins can shift, and Evenepoel has clearly had a smoother start to 2026.

I am talking now as if Tadej Pogacar is guaranteed to win the 2026 Tour de France. He is of course not, and cycling is a sport where we know anything can happen. At the same time, if 2025 is anything to go by, it is difficult to imagine anything but a race for second this July.

For Evenepoel to target second place behind Pogacar, or indeed to challenge higher, several factors must align. First, his time trial advantage must translate into meaningful gains, which he has managed in many grand tours before. Second, he must limit losses on the longest summit finishes, and avoid any collapse. Third, the Red Bull – Bora – hansgrohe mountain group must remain present deep into decisive stages. The early signs of cohesion are encouraging, but the Tour’s terrain is unforgiving.

Other riders have demonstrated how a new environment can produce immediate results. Tom Pidcock’s move to Q36.5 yielded overall victory at the AlUla Tour in his first race with the team, described as “a perfect first race.” Pidcock then enjoyed a quieter Giro, before stepping onto his first grand tour podium at last September’s infamous Vuelta a Espana.

Evenepoel’s case is distinct because of the scale of expectation. He is not seeking stage wins alone, he is attempting to recalibrate his Grand Tour ceiling. The collapse of 2025 was shaped by injury and incomplete preparation. The opening month of 2026 suggests a rider restored to a normal rhythm.

The statistical headline, five wins in eight race days, is striking, but the deeper significance lies in what it implies about continuity. Last year, the season began with recovery and uncertainty. This year, it has begun with momentum. Whether that momentum carries through the spring and into the Tour will determine if he can realistically aim to overhaul Vingegaard for second place.

For now, the contrast is undeniable. Twelve months ago, Evenepoel was waiting to start. Today, he is already winning.