ANALYSIS: Can Wout van Aert finally win a second monument this season?

Wout van Aert is one of cycling's most talented and popular riders, and we have seen time and time again how he is capable of excelling across a wide range of disciplines and terrains. His palmarès is already incredible, and includes four cyclocross world championships, nine Tour de France stage wins, and victories in high-profile one-day races like Strade Bianche and Amstel Gold Race. However, when it comes to monuments, the Belgian superstar's record falls surprisingly short. Van Aert’s lone monument triumph came at Milano-Sanremo in 2020, and he has yet to add another to his collection. For a rider of his calibre, the lack of further monument victories is perplexing, especially when compared to his chief rivals, Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar, who have picked up six and seven monuments respectively and stretched clear of the Belgian.

As we enter the 2025 season, the question is: can Van Aert finally secure a second monument?

Van Aert’s victory at Milano-Sanremo in 2020 is to this day the only time the Belgian great has managed to call himself number one at the end of a monument. In a thrilling sprint finish, he narrowly edged out Julian Alaphilippe, the defending champion a rider renowned for his explosiveness and penchant for attacking on punchy climbs. The victory was built on Van Aert’s exceptional tactical awareness and he timed his sprint perfectly on the day. He not only climbed with the best on the Poggio but also had the power to out-sprint a world-class opponent in Alaphilippe on the line.

This triumph seemed to herald the beginning of an illustrious career in the monuments, and many expected him to pick up countless more monument wins, but the anticipated follow-ups have not materialised. While he has come agonisingly close on several occasions, the top step has continued to elude him.

Van Aert’s near-misses in other monuments highlight the fine margins that separate victory from defeat. At the Tour of Flanders in 2020, he was beaten by Mathieu van der Poel in one of the closest finishes in the race’s history. After nearly six and a half hours of racing, the duo were separated by mere centimetres, but Van der Poel’s superior sprinting that day denied Van Aert what would have been a career-defining win.

Paris-Roubaix has also proven a source of heartbreak for Van Aert. In 2022, he finished second behind Dylan van Baarle, and in 2023, he settled for third as Van der Poel dominated to claim his maiden Roubaix title. The cobbled classic has been particularly frustrating for Van Aert, who has often found himself outgunned in the crucial moments despite his immense power and technical prowess, or the victim of mechanical issue at the worst moment.

Milano-Sanremo has also been a venue for near-success since his victory in 2020. Van Aert placed third in both 2021 and 2023, further cementing his consistency but underlining the difficulty of converting strong performances into victories.

When examining Van Aert’s monument record, it is impossible to ignore the shadow cast by Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar. Van der Poel has been a dominant force in recent years, winning six monuments, including back-to-back Paris-Roubaix titles in 2023 and 2024, as well as the Tour of Flanders and Paris Roubaix in back to back weekends in 2024. Of course, Van Aert was not present at either of those two monuments due to his injury in the spring, but would he have beaten Van der Poel on either of those days? Of course, you cannot ever write of Van Aert, but at this stage in their career Van der Poel appears to have edge as his explosive acceleration and race intelligence have made him nearly unbeatable on his best days.

Pogacar, meanwhile, has redefined what a Grand Tour rider can achieve in one-day races. With seven monument victories, including wins at the Tour of Flanders and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Slovenian has demonstrated an unparalleled ability to excel on varying terrain. Both riders have consistently outshone Van Aert in cycling’s most prestigious one-day races, raising questions about what separates them from the Belgian.

One area where Van Aert has unquestionably delivered is the Tour de France. His performances in 2022 in particular were nothing short of extraordinary, as he claimed three stage wins and the green jersey, showcasing his versatility by excelling in sprints, breakaways, and time trials. Van Aert’s winning ability at the Tour whilst still riding in support of Jonas Vingegaard has solidified his reputation as one of the most complete riders of his generation.

However, his Tour de France success may have inadvertently contributed to his lack of monument victories. The demands of preparing for and excelling in a three-week Grand Tour can leave riders fatigued and less sharp for the one-day classics. Balancing his calendar to peak for both the Tour and the monuments remains a challenge.

Van Aert’s palmarès already includes major wins like Strade Bianche in 2020 and Amstel Gold Race in 2021. Yet, these victories, while prestigious, do not quite carry the same weight as a monument. For a rider with his talent and versatility, one monument victory certainly feels insufficient. His four cyclocross world titles further underline his capabilities, but they do not fill the gap left by a lack of success in road cycling’s most storied races.

We’ve got no doubt that the Van Aert of the Tour de France in 2022, or the one that one on Mont Ventoux in 2021, could definitely win any of the spring monuments. But how can he find a way to peak in the spring?

The 2025 season offers Van Aert another opportunity to break his monument drought, which is coming up to a whopping five years! Reports suggest he has prioritised the spring classics in his training, even attending a recent training camp to prepare for the cobbled races. While his fourth-place finish at World Cup Benidorm in cyclocross last weekend may indicate lingering fatigue, it also highlights his commitment to the road season ahead.

Milano-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders, and Paris-Roubaix remain his best chances for a second monument. The question is whether Van Aert can find the winning formula that has so often eluded him. Can he match the brilliance of Van der Poel that we’ve seen in recent years, or the all-around dominance of Pogacar? Will he be able to avoid the misfortune and bad timing that have sometimes plagued his monument campaigns?

Let’s get one thing clear, Wout van Aert’s career is already one for the ages, but his lack of monument victories stands out as a glaring omission. While his incredible natural ability and versatility have made him a perennial contender, they have not yet translated into the level of success enjoyed by his biggest rivals. Of course, most riders in the peloton would do anything to have 1% of the palmares of Van Aert, but the very best always need to be greedy as they yearn to be the number 1. For a rider of Van Aert’s immense talent, adding a second monument to his palmarès feels less like a possibility and more like a necessity.

In 2024, the Belgian was denied the chance to attack the races that he believes are his destiny to win, as he was hampered by an injury in the spring and then another in the Vuelta that saw him miss out on another chance for monument and world championship glory. In 2025, he will once again get his chance to re-write this wrong and prove his talent on cycling’s most famed one day races.

As the 2025 season approaches, the cycling world will be watching to see if Van Aert can finally deliver on his potential in the monuments. With his combination of power, endurance, and tactical intelligence, he has all the tools to succeed. The question is whether he can put them together when it matters most.