ANALYSIS: Look away Tadej Pogacar! Merckx and Roche’s seasons following their triple crown wins suggests the Slovenian’s dominance is under threat

In 2024, Tadej Pogacar assembled perhaps the most extraordinary cycling season ever witnessed. Winning 25 races out of just 58 racing days, Pogacar became the first man in 25 years to achieve the Giro-Tour double after Pantani in 1998. Along the way, he claimed 12 Grand Tour stages, two monuments, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia, Strade Bianche with a sensational 80km solo attack, and, most impressively, the triple crown by winning his first World Championship road race with a jaw-dropping 100km solo attack in Zurich. His performances left even the likes of Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel, two incredible riders in their own right, powerless to respond.

However, Pogacar now faces the challenge of following up this historic season in 2025. Cycling legend Miguel Induráin recently warned, “When a season starts, what you won the previous year is worthless,” highlighting the immense pressure Pogacar will face to maintain his crown. Matteo Jorgenson also remarked that “there is no guarantee” Pogacar will maintain the same dominance, especially with riders like Jonas Vingegaard aiming to capitalise on any vulnerabilities.

Of course, with Pogacar’s immense ability, he will be the favourite at just about every race he starts next year. But how have previous winners of the triple crown fared in the season after achieving cycling’s most elusive feat? Let’s take a look.

Eddy Merckx became the first man to win the triple crown in 1974, and the feat remains one of the most celebrated achievements in cycling. That year, Merckx claimed the Giro d’Italia, the Tour de France, and the World Championship road race, showcasing his dominance across all terrains throughout a record breaking year. However, the 1974 season didn’t begin so impressively Merckx struggled with illnesses early in the year and failed to win a spring classic for the first time in his career. Despite entering the Giro in poor form, he still managed to win, followed by a Tour de France victory, even after undergoing surgery for a sebaceous cyst just five days before the race started. It was a year defined by grit and an unbreakable winning mentality, adding to the legend of Merckx.

But how did Merckx fare in 1975? Initially, things looked promising. He won Milano-Sanremo and the Amstel Gold Race, two prestigious one-day races. Milano-Sanremo, in particular, holds significance for Pogacar, who has made it clear he is desperate to add this race to his palmarès. As Pogacar’s fans will know, this race remains one of his major objectives, and a victory there in 2025 could see him start the year on a strong note.

However, Merckx’s form began to wane after the spring in a reversal of his fortunes the previous year. Riders grew resentful of Merckx’s dominance and expected him to chase down every attack, which frustrated the Belgian star. He suffered from a cold and tonsillitis during the spring, forcing him to skip the Giro d’Italia. By the Tour de France, Merckx was beaten by Bernard Thévenet, marking a turning point in his career. Remarkably, after his 1974 triple crown season, Merckx never won another Grand Tour, and his 1974 World Championship was his third and final rainbow jersey. The warning signs for Pogacar are clear: maintaining such dominance year after year is no small task.

Stephen Roche’s 1987 season stands as one of the most remarkable years in cycling history. The Irishman became the first rider from outside mainland Europe to win the Giro d’Italia, claiming three stages along the way. At the Tour de France, he triumphed over Pedro Delgado and Jean-François Bernard to win his first and only yellow jersey. Roche completed the triple crown by winning the World Championship road race in Austria, a season so exceptional that he was awarded the freedom of Dublin in September 1987.

However, 1988 marked the beginning of a sharp decline for Roche. A recurrence of a knee injury derailed his early season, and his results reflected this downturn. His best performances were a sixth-place finish at the Tour of Britain and an eighth-place finish at the Tour of Ireland. He did not participate in any Grand Tours that year, a stunning fall from grace given his triple crown heroics just a year earlier.

Roche’s fortunes did not improve much in subsequent years. He finished ninth in the 1989 Giro d’Italia and withdrew from the Tour de France that same year due to his persistent knee issues. His best Grand Tour result post-1987 was ninth place, a feat he achieved at the 1989 and 1993 Giros and the 1992 Tour de France, but a top 10 finish was not what most fans thought Roche would consider a good result following 1987. Roche’s 1987 World Championship win was also his first and only rainbow jersey, and the contrast between his triple crown year and the rest of his career serves as another cautionary tale for Pogacar.

So, with the misfortunes of Roche and Merckx in the seasons following their triple crown now clear, it appears that once again there is history on the line for Tadej Pogacar: can he become the first man to win a grand tour or a world title after having won the triple crown? Whether he can achieve this remains to be seen, and whether Roche’s and Merckx’s misfortunes were down to bad luck or declining motivation after reaching the pinnacle of the sport are also unclear.

In 2025, Pogacar will attempt to build on his historic 2024 season, and his ambitions are clear. He will aim for his fourth yellow jersey at the Tour de France and may also target his first red jersey at the Vuelta a Espana. Defending his World Championship time trial title will also be on his radar. Pogacar’s confirmed spring schedule includes the UAE Tour, Strade Bianche, Milano-Sanremo, and a full cobbled classics campaign, with the Tour of Flanders as another key target. It is a packed and ambitious calendar, reflective of Pogacar’s insatiable appetite for success and silverware.

However, the competition will be fierce. Jonas Vingegaard, who has developed into Pogacar’s greatest rival, will be determined to reclaim the yellow jersey, and the prospect of a Tour-Vuelta double showdown between Pogacar and Vingegaard is tantalising. Meanwhile, Remco Evenepoel will also be eager to deny Pogacar at the Tour and reassert his own Grand Tour ambitions. In the spring classics, Pogacar will face stiff challenges from Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert, two riders who excel in the one-day format. But if Pogacar is in the sort of form we became accustomed to in 2024, can anyone stop him?

As we’ve seen throughout 2024, the answer to this question is yes, regardless of the fact that the precedents set by Merckx and Roche paint a challenging picture for Pogacar. Merckx never won another Grand Tour after his triple crown year, and Roche’s career nosedived almost immediately after 1987. Pogacar, however, has already proven himself to be a unique talent, capable of rewriting cycling’s history books. His versatility, drive, and hunger for victory set him apart from many of his contemporaries.

Still, the sheer demands of maintaining top form across a packed calendar cannot be underestimated. Pogacar’s rivals will be studying his every move, and the physical and mental toll of his 2024 season could have lingering effects. As Miguel Induráin warned, success in one season does not guarantee success in the next.

What races do you think Pogacar will win in 2025? Will he add Milano-Sanremo to his palmarès, or secure a fourth Tour de France title, or will he had another grand tour to his CV by combining yellow and red at the Tour and Vuelta? One thing is certain: all eyes will be on Pogacar as he attempts to achieve what Merckx and Roche could not: back-to-back seasons of dominance after a triple crown year. 2025 is set to be a season no one will want to miss.