American ex-pro urges to peloton to follow Team Sky blueprint in quest to stop Tadej Pogacar: "Analyse and adapt to Tadej’s tactics"
CyclingMonday, 28 April 2025 at 13:50
Tadej Pogacar remains the man to beat in 2025. That is much easier said than done, but according to American ex-pro Bobby Julich, however, if the peloton wants to stop the unstoppable, they should look to the team with which he was once a race coach, Team Sky.
"I am a huge fan of Tadej Pogacar. He races unconventionally, producing some of the most exciting long-range attacks we have ever witnessed in the men’s professional peloton," begins Julich in a column for Velo. "In these days of science-driven training and excessive data capturing, Pogacar seems to float on the pedals when everyone is at their limit, as if he is out for a fun training ride. He is often quite up front about what he intends to do and where he intends to do it, yet the best riders in the world can do little to stop him."
That's not to say Pogacar is infallible though. "Last week at Amstel Gold, we witnessed Pogacar looking almost human for the first time in a long while," Julich notes. "Was this a one-off due to fatigue from the pressure of his ambitious cobbled classic campaign, a mistake in his fuelling, or did the peloton, and more specifically Remco Evenepoel and Mattias Skjelmose, finally figure out a way to disrupt Pogacar’s dominance? I believe it was a combination of all these factors."
As mentioned in the quest to stop Pogacar, Julich reckons he has a potential answer in the form of an old-plan thought up by Team Sky. "I wouldn’t be surprised if there are groups of coaches and data crunchers in a back room somewhere analysing each of Pogi’s attacks and trying to figure out the best and most repeatable tactic to beat him. During my time with Team Sky over a decade ago, we had to figure out a way to beat one of that generation’s most explosive climbers, Alberto Contador. It was no easy task. Like Pogacar, when Contador decided to attack, there was very little anyone could do to stop him," the former Paris-Nice winner recalls.
"Contador was able to accelerate in a way that very few riders could absorb without cracking physically or mentally. He forced those brave riders who attempted to stay on his wheel to go so far into the red that they could seldom recover before he accelerated again and disappeared up the road for good," Julich continues. "The head coach of Team Sky back then was Tim Kerrison. He analysed the data and devised a plan that proved effective."
Contador & Froome were Grand Tour rivals for much of the 2010s
So what exactly was the plan? "Alberto’s attacks were timed and analyzed by watching old footage on TV. Even though Kerrison didn’t have the raw data from Contador, he could calculate it using the information that was publicly available," Julich explains. "The solution was to let Contador go during his blistering accelerations, not lose morale or get caught up in an ego moment and then ride to the power range that Chris Froome could sustain and slowly bring him back by the top of the climb. Froome rarely lost to Alberto Contador ever again. This was also the beginning of Sky riders riding to power that frustrated many competitors and fans over the years."
And Julich has also already seen evidence that this tactic can work against the all-conquering Pogacar. "This reeling in, continuing to fight, is how Mattias Skjelmose found himself in a position to win Amstel Gold Race," he recalls. "Now the question is how repeatable is it? Slowly chasing back Pogacar isn’t a viable solution for a race like Flèche Wallonne where he simply out kicks everyone on the Mur du Huy."
"I seriously doubted that Pogacar would continue his dominance over the men’s peloton after his historical 2024 season, but I was wrong. If anything, he is even stronger this year than last and shows no signs of slowing down. Pogacar and his team have revolutionized the sport with their team strength, depth, and recent long-bomb tactics, but I believe they will soon pivot to a less predictable style of racing once his heavy schedule of one-day races is over," Julich concludes. "The problem with Tadej’s current form, when he shifts back to more measured efforts closer to the finish, is that he becomes even more dangerous. His desire to win every race he enters all year long is more impressive than all his Strava records and power data. While the peloton continues to analyse and adapt to Tadej’s tactics, only time will tell if they have discovered the blueprint to beat Pogacar, but I wouldn’t bet on it quite yet."
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- He's just not the same after the crash at La Vuelta. I hope the knee injury does not "Chris Froome" his career.
KerisVroom11-05-2025 - Well, I didn’t hear any strict instructions from management so why shouldn’t it be like Visma’s infamous Vuelta unless things heat up? Am sure they don’t regret sweeping the podium which was only possible because internal rivalry was at least as strong as external.Mistermaumau11-05-2025
- In principle, but he’ll always have that Planche des Belles Filles TdF loss in his mind nowadays so not sure he’ll be so keen on giving away anything anymoreif he doesn’t really have to. It’s a matter of weighing (dis)advantages and I’m not so sure the media obligations always outweigh the psychological effects that a win or domination bring, unless you’re bad at dealing with pressure which I doubt is the case with Primoz.Mistermaumau11-05-2025
- so sad...
maria2024202410-05-2025 - ahahahha.. but I think Roglic will be very happy to give you back the pink jersey (less interviews, less ceremonies, more time to rest).maria2024202410-05-2025
- Bummed for Wout. I hope he bounces back big tomorrowmij10-05-2025
- His manner of speech is that of someone who's totally laid back, not the nervous kind.KerisVroom10-05-2025
- wow, Isaac Del Torro can TT. I am betting that he can surpass Ayuso in the future.KerisVroom10-05-2025
- van Aert will be happy if he can stay with the front group in that last climb. Pedersen will win stage 3 :-)
DareDevil10-05-2025 - Not good for Landa. Whole season gone already.DareDevil10-05-2025
Blueprint? Well if someone can outclimb him maybe. Visma seemed to have a good game back in the 2022 Tour when all the climbers attacked him. He's strong now and more experienced. There is only one guy at his level and I think he's a bit gun shy now. We'll have to see but I keep waiting to hear that Jonas is going to retire...
Then they lost Roglic because of a mismanaged Vuelta (had they worked for his win, he'd still be with them, I bet), Kuss has been a shadow of himself since then, Wout van Aert has been on a roller coaster but not in the mountains, and it's not the same team anymore.
Kuss doesn't like the pressure of a grand tour, he has the goods though if he's not facing Jonas, Tadej or Remco. He should focus on the less stressful one week stage races.
Roglic was already planning to leave Jumbo-Visma before the 2023 Vuelta. He has said so.
Kuss hasn't even done well in the one week stage races since the Vuelta. That was the pinnacle of his career and it's been all downhill since.
He had a lot of sickness, however, a lot of riders have to deal with sickness. I believe he could do well in the one week mountain stage races. I don't think he cares though.
Some of these ex pro talk stupidly. Pogi has power numbers that no matter how many teammates you have one cannot match. San Remo and Roubaix, WC2024, Strade is the classic case. Nobody even with teamamtes was able the chase him. On top of that his teammates are also the strongest. They usually drop the support of other leaders.
That approach could / will work again in a stage race. Not a one day.
Both scenarios are complicated: Sky's approach made the grand tours boring, but everyone just racing for second place (like is the case nowadays) also drains the suspense (except maybe for Pogi's fans).
Racing for 2nd place in a stage race, maybe ok but at least try something on a specific day!