The modern route profile is hostile to the heavyweights of the past. Organizers, desperate to avoid "boring" transition stages, are including climbs and technical challenges that force sprinters to evolve.
Jonathan Milan notes that opportunities are becoming scarce. "I'm seeing maybe a little change in that there are fewer flat stages," Milan admits. "Most sprint finishes, either they have echelons, or there is some elevation."
According to
Jasper Philipsen, this shift is driven by the entertainment industry. "Race organisers are changing the route as they want to make it more exciting for the public," the Belgian says. "[The win is] open to the more versatile riders; these kinds of parcours leave multiple race situations possible."
It isn't just the mountains that have changed, but also the sprint itself.
Jordi Meeus,
the last man to win a "traditional" Champs-Élysées sprint in 2023, argues that higher overall speeds have fundamentally changed the mechanics of the lead-out. "In the past, sprinters were launching at 250 to 300m and leading all the way. Nowadays, I think sprints are a bit shorter," Meeus said.
The reason? Aerodynamics. As the peloton moves faster, the slipstream effect becomes more potent, punishing anyone who hits the wind too early. "You can be the strongest, but if you launch at the wrong moment and you catch too much wind too early, you can still get caught," Meeus added.
"Nowadays, it's really hard to anticipate because the pace is so high. Guys like Pogacar or Van der Poel, they have such a strong team, and they like a hard race, so they go fast from the beginning to the end, so it's really hard to get some distance ahead."
The safety battle: Is 5km enough?
With higher speeds comes higher risk. A study by the UCI's SafeR project found that 13% of crashes in the 2024 season were caused by tension at tactically critical points. In response, the UCI has introduced a yellow card system for dangerous riding and extended the "safety zone" (where riders crashing get the same time as the group) from 3km to 5km on flat stages.
However,
Biniam Girmay believes these measures are not enough, and he advocates for a radical 10km rule to neutralize the danger completely.
"The 3km rule, and sometimes 5km, why don't they put it at 10km to go? It doesn't change anything. It's flat anyway, and then we finish in the city most of the time. If you take [rider finish times] at 10km to go, we'll only have 10, nine or eight sprint teams [contending for the win], so we will be safer."