Tom Dumoulin sees Pogacar as the man to beat at the Tour de France but doesn't rule out Vingegaard - "That doesn't mean you don't have a chance"
Cycling
The Tour de France will be the first and perhaps only race in 2026 where Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard will clash. But it promises to be a major clash with both riders at the top of their game, and perhaps with the psychological scale tilting more towards the Dane's side this year. Tom Dumoulin shares his insight ahead of the race.
"Those two stages to Alpe d'Huez, that will be fantastic. But I miss those epic climbs a bit. The Tourmalet (on stage 6, ed.), Alpe d'Huez, but after that, it stops in terms of big names for the climbs," Dumoulin argued on the NOS Wielerpodcast. "I would have liked to see one more epic mountain stage, with climbs that everyone knows".
The race will be made difficult with the climbs to the Col de Haag on stage 14 and Plateau de Solaison on the 15th day of racing; followed by the race's only individual time trial on stage 16 around Lake Geneva. On stage 20 however, Dumoulin does not point out the ascents to the Col de la Croix de Fer and Col du Galibier where the main differences of the race could be created.
Pogacar the top favourite
The Dutchman, former member of the Visma team, does not see the favourites entering this year's race with a different status than that of 12 months ago.
"For me, the top favorite remains Pogacar, and I think Visma | Lease a Bike sees it that way too," Dumoulin notes. "But that doesn't mean you don't have a chance. I don't see any more positive signs than in recent years. I do see a very good Vingegaard. Very good in the Giro, truly dominant and actually in the same way Pogacar wins his races".
For the former pro, the Dutch team does begin the race with a deficit after the untimely injuries of Christophe Laporte and Wout Van Aert, who could be specially important to Jonas Vingegaard on the flat and hilly days.
"His team is heading into the Tour with a deficit. They are missing Wout van Aert for sure, but also a number of other important riders". Davide Piganzoli and Per Strand Hagenes were their replacements, bringing youth into a team that continues to have experienced faces in the lead.
Read also
Is Visma actually in disadvantage compared to UAE?
But is Visma actually in disadvantage to UAE? Former pro Stef Clement believes this might not be the case. "You can put eight men alongside them, but if the team leader is the best, then the fight will happen there. And at UAE, they also had to dig deep to put eight together," he argues.
On the Emirati team's side, Marc Soler was ruled out of the race due to injury, Adam Yates suffered a concussion at the Giro d'Italia that cut his momentum and the team won't rely on Jhonatan Narváez who was a key weapon last summer.
He believes the gaps between the two won't be so big. "Based on the past six months, we can actually look forward to a very exciting duel. Neither Pogacar nor Vingegaard has lost a major race this season," he says, pointing out the psychological mindset of both heading into the race.
But one of them will lose out on the Tour victory, inevitably. "One has already secured the Giro, the other put it into the Giro. They haven't seen each other yet".
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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