“This year could be different if Q36.5 wants to go full gas” – Is Tom Pidcock the favourite on Giro d’Italia gravel stage?

Sunday is Stage 9 of the Giro d’Italia. And what does that mean? Gravel. And what does that mean? Potential carnage.

The peloton heads into the white roads of Tuscany for one of the most anticipated, and feared, stages of this year’s race. Five gravel sectors, many borrowed directly from Strade Bianche, are on the menu, with a finish in the iconic Piazza del Campo in the heart of Siena. It’s a day that could shape the general classification or spark a breakaway upset, but either way, drama is all but guaranteed.

In recent years, gravel stages in Grand Tours have delivered mixed outcomes. In 2021, Egan Bernal obliterated the field on the white roads and never looked back, sealing a dominant Giro title. At last year’s Tour de France, Jonas Vingegaard suffered a scare when he punctured and had to switch bikes, an incident that almost derailed his yellow jersey bid.

The challenge of gravel is as much mental as it is physical, and riders know that anything can happen. Crashes, mechanicals, and dust storms are part of the territory. For those who have ridden Strade Bianche or similar terrain, that knowledge might be the difference between gaining time and losing everytGra

Tom Pidcock is one rider many will be watching. The British star has pedigree on this terrain, having won Strade Bianche in 2023 and finished second this year. His mix of explosiveness, technical handling, and off-road experience could make him a major threat.

“He’s here as a potentially dangerous GC contender,” said Pello Bilbao to Cycling Weekly. “But he will also want to have a chance to go for a stage victory and to make some gaps between the contenders. This year could be different if Q36.5 wants to go full gas on Sunday for the stage victory. I expect a really big battle and some differences in GC.”

Pidcock is a world champion on a mountain bike and a cyclocross bike, so could thrive in these conditions. But can he make it through without disaster? Bilbao, a savvy and consistent rider in his own right, was quick to stress just how demanding the gravel stage will be, not just physically, but technically.

“It brings you to your limits, physically and mentally. Of course, knowing this before Sunday’s stage is an advantage. You need to have a good feeling for the gravel and to understand the grip, the braking [on the bike] and how the group moves in the sectors. It’s not completely like Strade, some of the most difficult sectors from that race are out, but anyway, mechanical problems, crashes, this will all happen for sure.”

But not everyone expects fireworks. Lidl-Trek’s Toms Skujiņš believes comparisons to Strade Bianche may be overblown.

“I think it will not be raced anywhere near as aggressively as Strade is,” Skujiņš told Cycling Weekly. “The Giro stage is very different because there’s not nearly as many sectors, it could be a breakaway day. There’s also a lot of GC ambitions to consider, there’s often a lot of people in a stage race line up that don’t race for the win on an occasion like this; they race just to limit damage."

Skujiņš pointed to last year’s Tour de France gravel stage as a precedent, lots of anticipation, but little movement in the GC.

“The gravel stage in the Tour last year was a good example of that. Nothing really changed on the GC and the breakaway won, that could happen again in the Giro. I don’t think Strade and the Giro stage can be compared, even if some of the sectors they’re using are similar.”