“They could not have made the first ten days more interesting” – Will Mathieu van der Poel target the green jersey at the Tour de France?

With the 2025 Tour de France just four days away, speculation is growing over whether Mathieu van der Poel could mount a serious challenge for the green jersey. The Dutchman’s prospects look brighter than ever thanks to a route seemingly tailor-made for his explosive talents.

“At the ASO they rolled out the red carpet for punchers and certainly for Van der Poel,” said Thijs Zonneveld to Sporza. “They could not have made the first ten days more interesting for him than they are now. And actually it is ridiculous. Zoom in and Mathieu can win five of the first ten stages. Last year those days were not there at all and he rode around lost. Now they have changed it completely and it is a playground for him.”

Remarkably, Van der Poel has won only a single Tour stage, four years ago, though it was enough to see him don the yellow jersey for a memorable spell. This year, however, there are clear signs that he and his team are taking a different approach to the Tour. In past seasons, Van der Poel typically disappeared from competition after the Spring Classics, only returning for the Tour itself. This time, he lined up at the Critérium du Dauphiné as part of his build-up.

“You can see that Mathieu has structured his season in a completely different way,” Zonneveld went on. “In recent years, the Tour was a kind of must from his team. He had to participate, but didn’t always want to. That’s different now, which is why he has also worked on his time trial. He can take yellow in Caen or keep it. The fact that he rode such a good time trial in the Dauphiné is because of the perfect course of this Tour.”

According to Zonneveld, the green jersey might well be on Van der Poel’s radar, provided he can continue the form he showed in the Dauphiné. “I think that [the green jersey] is in his mind. Certainly if he rides like he did in the Dauphiné.” However, with Jasper Philipsen, a former winner of the points classification, also on Alpecin-Deceuninck’s roster, there could be an intriguing internal dynamic. “But sometimes he will not be there at all. And if you miss two sprints, you miss a lot of points. So Alpecin-Deceuninck has a double chance and I think they see it that way too.”

Still, chasing green from the outset is far from straightforward. “You can say in advance that you want to win green, but that is one of the most difficult ways to start the Tour,” Zonneveld continues. “You only win green if you also win stages. So I think that stage win and yellow are the first goals. After that, green can automatically become a secondary goal. It will depend on how they are doing after five days or so.”

Much will hinge on how Van der Poel and his team survive what promises to be a chaotic opening block. “I wonder whether the team is already thinking about that. Those first days will be one big chaos. It is a ten-day race from Dunkirk with climbs and narrow roads. I hope not, but you know that after ten days riders will have dropped out.”

Zonneveld also points out how unusually the Tour has been designed this year, influencing team selections across the board. “How the ASO did it now... I can’t imagine a recent Grand Tour that started this way. You can see that in the selections. Visma | Lease a Bike is not replacing Christophe Laporte with a climber, but with Edoardo Affini, a man for these kinds of rides. Many teams are working very hard on it. UAE is not, because they assume that Pogacar will solve it himself.”

Ultimately, Van der Poel’s pursuit of the green jersey, or simply a landmark Tour performance, fits the broader story of his career. “And then he really is the biggest favorite. Van der Poel is in a generation with extremely good riders and they always need challenges.

"Mathieu also seeks them, such as with mountain biking. What he has seen is that he has surpassed Wout van Aert in the field and in the classics. His list of honors is much larger, but in the big tours it is the other way around. Van Aert is much better at that and that challenges or challenges Van der Poel. A very good Tour and the green jersey certainly add something.”