Slovenian icon gives Primoz Roglic a Giro d'Italia warning: "He can't afford to lose anything easily in the early stages"

The 2023 winner of the Maglia Rosa, Primoz Roglic returns to the Giro d'Italia in 2025 as arguably the man to beat. With a host of superstar contenders set to vie with Roglic for the Grand Tour win though, the Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe leader is unlikely to have things all his own way, with a Slovenian icon offering his compatriot a word of warning.

"The most difficult stages are in the third week, and the introduction in Albania will be interesting. The questions are what the roads are like, what the accommodation will be like, how the teams will find themselves. In any case, the favourites will have to show themselves in Albania," begins the analysis of Primoz Cerin, on the Approved podcast.

There is a potential advantage to Roglic though, in the layout of the early time trial. "In theory, definitely. Whoever rides the time trial well already has an advantage," Cerin analyses. "There's Primoz, then Juan Ayuso, and to some extent both Yates brothers, Mikel Landa, for example, is already losing ground. Richard Carapaz is at a similar level to Landa, Egan Bernal may have a little more than these two, he's younger and somehow coming to his senses a little."

"Nairo Quintana, on the other hand, is in decline; in time trials, he has regressed more than progressed in recent years. Antonio Tiberi is one of those who could surprise a little, he's young and good. The question is how he'll fare in the time trial," continues the 62-year-old. "Then there are cyclists like Wilco Kelderman, Thymen Arensman, Louis Meintjes, Giulio Ciccone. There are quite a few who can surprise."

Cerin insists though, that Roglic shouldn't wait for the third week to try and gain time, with the three-time Giro starter citing the famously unpredictable weather as a reason for concern. "All other things can be predicted to some extent, teams can already plan certain things well, imagine them, make some plans, tactics. They know what the roads are like, what the challenges are. All of this is kind of clear, but the weather is a factor that can surprise everyone," he notes. "If you are set up in such a way that you will be well prepared in the last week, so that you can gain something, just like last year's Vuelta, where Primoz ultimately gained, it can happen at the Giro that you get into trouble in the last week and run out of time and roads."

"If it snows in the north of Italy during the days, the entire stage, all the climbs, can be cancelled. It's so high that everything is white quickly and it's impossible to get over. The teams will have to pay attention to this, including Primoz. He can't afford to lose anything easily in the early stages, because the question is whether he will even have the chance to make up for it at the end," Cerin concludes. "That's what worries me. That's what I meant by the fact that the weather may be the deciding factor."