“Probably seals the Vuelta for Jonas” – Martin and Bruyneel debate stage 18’s time trial

Giulio Pellizzari’s breakthrough win on the slopes of Alto de El Morredero delivered one of the most impressive victories of this year’s Vuelta a España. The 21-year-old Italian seized his chance with a perfectly timed attack, leaving the sport’s established names staring at his back wheel. It was his first professional win, and confirmed his status as one of the brightest up and coming young riders. But as Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin discussed on The Move podcast, there was a lot more going on in the GC than Pellizzari’s win. The duo raised questions about Jonas Vingegaard’s form, João Almeida’s isolation from his UAE teammates, and how a drastically shortened time trial could shape the outcome of the race today.

The stage had been billed as a battle between the overall contenders, with many picking either Vingegaard or Almeida to attack each other. Instead, it was Pellizzari who stole the headlines. “And then, when there was a calm moment, Giulio Pellizzari attacks. Red Bull… I mean, what an advantage having two GC riders up there (they have Jai Hindley 4th on GC). He attacks. Nobody wants to chase. Rides to his first career professional victory,” said Martin. It was a landmark result, as Red Bull were able to outmanoeuvre both UAE and Visma.

Team Visma | Lease a Bike looked committed to delivering their leader to victory. “Visma, in my opinion, rode the whole stage to win the stage with Jonas,” observed Bruyneel. The team set a relentless tempo on the front, with Wilco Kelderman and Dylan van Baarle grinding out the kilometers to keep the breakaway on a short leash.

But when the race hit the final climb, Vingegaard stayed passive. We waited and waited, and the two-time Tour de France champion still did not attack.

“Jonas has not attempted one single time, neither to win the stage nor to drop João Almeida, who was in trouble at some point,” Bruyneel noted. Instead of launching attacks, the Dane appeared content to defend, even when Almeida showed signs of weakness and lost contact with the GC group momentarily.

“That confirms what we have been saying for a number of days now: that Jonas is, obviously, in red; he’s in the lead; it’s highly likely he’s going to win this Vuelta. But this is not the 100% Jonas Vingegaard,” Bruyneel added.

Martin echoed that thought: “It’s clear we’re dealing with Jonas Vingegaard below his best.” The Dane still has the race under control, but his rivals will have sensed an opportunity. Had Almeida has better legs yesterday, he possibly would have tried to hurt the Dane.

For João Almeida, the climb was another reminder of UAE Team Emirates - XRG’s uneven strategy. “It cannot be that Visma has four riders and then Almeida is isolated,” Bruyneel pointed out. Jay Vine, Marc Soler, and other teammates disappeared early, leaving Almeida to manage the climb on his own. Perhaps the most noticeable absentee was Juan Ayuso, who once again disappeared from the front when Almeida needed him…

“Almeida, definitely not a good day today. Limited the losses,” said Bruyneel. The Portuguese rider managed to ride at his own tempo, limiting damage to just 2 seconds, but he had no teammates to help control attacks or pace him back when dropped. Martin noted the psychological difference: “It’s also a mental advantage if you see, hey, you know, I’m now by myself. Everybody’s on the limit and there’s still three of these yellow guys with the red guy, right? That doesn’t… I mean that’s not a good feeling.”

Conditions made the climb even more punishing. “It was headwind on the last climb, but, you know, it was also very steep,” said Bruyneel. The winds were so fierce that organisers debated altering the finish, just a day after stage 16 was altered due to protests. “They were actually considering putting the finish line three kilometers lower… because you could see on the images it was extremely open on top.”

The peloton also rode through landscapes scarred by recent wildfires, with burnt slopes creating an eerie backdrop. For riders already on their limit, the barren scenery and howling winds only added to the day’s brutality. “The wind was incredibly, incredibly strong,” Bruyneel said.

The story of the day was Pellizzari, who confirmed his rise from promising prospect to a genuine Grand Tour contender. “First pro win… second Grand Tour already,” Bruyneel underlined.

Martin recalled how quickly Pellizzari’s career had escalated. “If he sounds familiar, it’s because at the 2024, I’d never heard of him before 2024, then in Italy he nearly wins a stage but Tadej Pogacar wins the stage, gives him a jersey, and then he signs a WorldTour contract… then shows up to the Giro d’Italia this year, finishes sixth overall.”

“He wins a stage, one of the hardest mountain stages, from the GC group, so super impressive from Pellizzari,” Martin added. At just 21, the Italian now leads the white jersey classification and sits inside the top five overall.

Red Bull – BORA – Hansgrohe have Hindley and Pellizzari in the top 5 at the Vuelta. They also have Florian Lipowitz, the Tour de France white jersey and third place rider, and five time grand tour winner Primoz Roglic. And, for 2026, Remco Evenepoel is joining the team. Some lineup!

Behind Pellizzari, Matthew Riccitello tried to make an impact but found himself overextending. “Matthew Riccitello, 26 seconds back. Doesn’t look like he’s going to get the white jersey. Pellizzari looks too strong,” Martin said.

Bruyneel was blunt in his assessment: “After today, I was kind of hopeful for Riccitello to get white, but after today I think it’s difficult.”

With Pellizzari riding into form, the young American may have to settle for second in the youth classification, though his performance in his debut Vuelta still signals promise. “The white jersey totally decoupled from the GC… it’s a two-man race,” Martin summed up.

If Almeida’s struggles highlighted anything, it was UAE’s questionable priorities. “I cannot understand if UAE allows Jay Vine or anyone else on UAE, except João Almeida, to go full gas in the time trial. I do not understand this,” said Bruyneel, pointing out how the team has often chased stage wins at the expense of Almeida’s GC fight.

He argued the approach should be simple: “Tomorrow, or tomorrow morning, they say to the riders, ‘Today, everybody except João has a rest day.’ Simple.”

Instead, UAE riders have burned energy in breakaways and secondary goals, leaving their leader isolated when it matters most. As Bruyneel suggested, that could cost them the red jersey in Madrid.

The biggest revelation came not from the mountain but from the organisers. Midway through the podcast, Martin reacted to breaking news. “So, Johan, 27… wait, do I have that right? Did they redo this? Hold on a second. This can’t be right… Wait, no. For safety reasons, the time trial has been shortened from 27 km to 12 km. Oh my goodness. Oh wow. Wow. That changes… holy smokes.”

The decision, prompted by safety concerns amid ongoing protests, upends the GC narrative. A long time trial would have given Almeida an outside chance to reclaim time. Now, the margin for change is minimal.

“From 27 km to 12.2 km, now I’m going to pick Filippo Ganna for sure,” Bruyneel declared. Martin agreed: “This should be like a layup for Ganna with this.”

Both also noted the implications for the overall battle. “This is huge for Jonas. It’s also huge for Tom Pidcock,” Martin said, pointing out that fewer kilometers mean fewer risks of losing the podium.

The shortening was not just about logistics but about safety, as we have witnessed extraordinary scenes in Spain over the past three weeks. Bruyneel revealed the extent of the measures: “I’ve gotten information that, for the last two stages in Madrid, they plan the highest security since the NATO summit in 2022… an extra 1,500 police and Guardia Civil agents.”

The risk of disruption remains high. “There’s a decision made that, at any point, if there’s a protest and the race has to be shortened or neutralized, there’s not going to be a winner,” Bruyneel said.

The open nature of road racing makes it uniquely vulnerable. “It’s so accessible and anybody can… the yellow jersey in the Tour can be taken out at any moment by just one crazy person,” Bruyneel warned. Martin added: “It’s actually kind of a bleak future for professional cycling if anyone can just come out and shut the race down.”

Looking ahead, the consensus is that the shortened time trial all but seals Vingegaard’s victory. Remember, the Dane suffered a bad day on the TT bike during the Tour de France, and Almeida would have been looking at this as an opportunity to claw back time. “I’m afraid this probably seals the Vuelta for Jonas,” Martin admitted. But Bruyneel cautioned: “Let’s not underestimate the last stage, Spencer.”