PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 4 - Brutal summit finish a huge GC test: Roglic, Almeida, Yates, Landa and more go head-to-head

Stage 4 of the Vuelta a España sees the race cross the border into Spain and immediately with an insanely hard day. It's the first day in the mountains and the first of nine summit finishes throughout the 21 days of racing. We preview the day that ends in Pico Villuercas, where the brutal gradients will see big differences in the overall classification.

The riders make their way into Spain and stage 4 will immediately be a day that is very important for the overall classification. The first mountainous day, the first summit finish and in reality an outright very hard day. Besides the expected heat that is a constant in this part of the country at this time of year, there will be 3500 meters of climbing and a very difficult summit finish. This will come as a shock to the system, and it will make it quite an interesting day where the GC riders will analyze each other and figure out exactly where they stand.

And there's no warming up to it. Right in the start of the day there are two hard ascents. One is 9.2 kilometers to go at 5.4% and the other 13.8 kilometers at 5.6%. This will end with only 54 kilometers of racing. A long descent follows and then a nice flat section - actually flat, not rolling, as was constantly the case in Portugal. With 47 kilometers to go summits the third ascent of the day which is 7.9 kilometers to go at 4.4%.

But all will be about the final climb to Pico Villuecas. 14.6 kilometers at 6.2%... But this is very misleading. The first 10 kilometers are mostly at gradients of 4 and 5%, where slipstreaming means a lot and there will be no attacks. A leadout surely will be in place into the final 5 kilometers of the climb. From 5 to 2 kilometers to go the average will be a constant 13%. This is outright brutal. In the final 2/1.5 kilometers it does come down again but the damage will be done.

The Weather

Another day of crazy heat with 30 degrees already at the start in the morning and the summit finish in Pico Villuercas under 35-degree sun. This can turn the race on it's head and cause unusual performances quite easily, do not be surprised to see it happen. However, predicting which riders will handle it well and who won't is far from easy. There will be a western breeze throughout the day which will come as a crosswind throughout most of the day; and in the final climb as a cross-tailwind until the riders get in the steep section.

The Favourites

BORA - The German team have cards, and lots of them! This is the first mountain stage and this line of thought is what several riders have said: We see how the legs are in this first mountain stage and then see what their main goals will be. BORA is one example of this exactly. Primoz Roglic has a climb that suits him quite well but is coming back from injury; Aleksandr Vlasov is also coming off an injury at the Tour de France; Daniel Martínez hasn't shown great form since the Giro d'Italia... BORA have plenty cards, they won't want to lose them yet, so it will try to save them until the steep kilometers of the climb. You cannot discard Florian Lipowitz who proved himself to be a tremendously talented climber in the first months of the season and was close to the Top10 in the time-trial - a surprising result.

UAE - UAE are in a similar situation, although theirs is a bit more clear. João Almeida and Adam Yates are to be protected above the rest. The Briton prefers these explosive climbs more over Almeida who prefers the long and constant efforts. Isaac Del Toro surely won't be burnt and the team will also see how he does in this climb, GC is possible. Brandon McNulty is in the same situation he is close to the red jersey and clearly in great form, he could be valuable card to play later in the race.

INEOS - I wouldn't say INEOS is as likely to take the stage win as the teams above but they also have several riders and will want to measure their leaders. Carlos Rodríguez comes in following a solid Tour de France, we'll see if he has gotten good form once again. Laurens de Plus was also on good form during the Tour and I believe he will want to test himself whilst Thymen Arensman is also set to try, but is the most likely one to struggle following a Vuelta a Burgos where he wasn't able to show off good form (and is a rider that frequently starts the Grand Tours in sub-optimal form.

Lidl-Trek - Lidl have two leaders in this race. Giulio Ciccone has said that he will be supporting Mattias Skjelmose in the challenge of taking on the GC fight. The Dane may struggle in this weather but he will give it a shot and if he has good legs he's certainly a contender for the stage win. We must keep an eye on Tao Geoghegan Hart who is also aiming for the GC but has had a crash in Burgos that could've caused quite some damage to his ambitions in this Vuelta.

Movistar - Not the biggest favourites, but an interesting team. In my opinion Enric Mas did a good time-trial, and in the Vuelta he always performs. Consistent rider, good on any type of climbs, I think he can be in the fight for the win if he shows his best level - he was reaching it in the final week of the Tour. Einer Rubio will surely also be protected whilst Nairo Quintana is an absolute wildcard and will be interesting to gauge.

Don't expect anyone taking big risks in this stage, it is often the case in the first mountain stage of a Grand Tour, and specially here with the weather being so brutal on the riders. Not just that, but obviously the final climb makes it very obvious that important moves will only come in the final 4.5 kilometers. Before will be all about preparation and positioning. We have got top climbers outside of those above capable of winning the stage:

Sepp Kuss has just won a stage at the Vuelta a Burgos with a summit finish that was also quite steep and is in good form currently; Richard Carapaz is also a fan of these very steep ascents and has set his sights on the best possible GC which means that he will be focused in finishing as best as possible... Mikel Landa is a rider who was climbing at an extraordinary level at the Tour, if he shows the same here can fight for the win already tomorrow but if not he could lose important time on top of a bad time-trial.

We have got an absolute wildcard in Lennert van Eetvelt who won the UAE Tour also in the heat and is a brilliant climber who has recently returned from injury and gotten back to good form. Matthew Riccitello is another very dangerous underdog for this finale (Michael Woods can perhaps also contest if he is not drained from the day's total amount of climbing).

Decathlon will support Felix Gall and Ben O'Connor to GC and Valentin Paret-Peintre could also surprise on such a climb; we have Antonio Tiberi, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Eddie Dunbar, Louis Meintjes, David Gaudu, Cristián Rodríguez, Max Poole, Guillaume Martin, Lorenzo Fortunato and Pablo Castrillo also as riders I expect to see go all-out and see if they can be in the fight for a result in the final standings.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 4:

*** Primoz Roglic, Adam Yates
** João Almeida, Daniel Martínez, Sepp Kuss, Richard Carapaz
* Isaac del Toro, Brandon McNulty, Aleksandr Vlasov, Florian Lipowitz, Mattias Skjelmose, Enric Mas, Einer Rubio, Mikel Landa, Ben O'Conor, Felix Gall, Matthew Riccitello, Lennert van Eetvelt, Antonio Tiberi

Pick: Adam Yates