PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 19 - 5 seconds separate Ben O'Connor and Primoz Roglic into key mountain day

The Vuelta a España has entered it's final week and has not slowed down in any way. This Thursday's stage was rather wild and stage 19 should see the GC fight explode once again. We preview another difficult day with a summit finish on the Alto de Moncalvillo.

The riders head east and stage 19 is an unusually flat day on the bike. That is, until the summit finish to the Alto de Moncalvillo. Somehow this may actually be one of the calmest days for the Vuelta peloton who won't have to tackle a bunch of small hilltops all day long. There will actually be flat roads, and most riders can take the final climb at a slow pace. The GC riders will have to go to the limit however.

The final ascent is 8.6 kilometers long at 9% and is difficult enough to create big differences. Some tight bends and very high gradients from start to finish. It's a relatively constant climb and it's hard enough for big gaps. With the riders fresh at the base, it could even increase the chances of destructive attacks.

The Weather

Nothing to note, a regular day.

The Favourites

GC Fight - Ben O'Connor has five seconds over Primoz Roglic... BORA DS Patxi Villa himself has said that Roglic no longer needs to attack; and he likely won't. In the time-trial he gains time on all his rivals, and he has an advantage over all but the Australian. On a good day even, it will be hard for O'Connor to keep red because it's a very steep climb where differences are likely. Roglic is good in the single-effort days and this climb, being steep, suits him well. He likely takes the race lead and will be the man to beat, whilst likely racing at pace and trying to respond to Enric Mas and Richard Carapaz.

The duo have shown themselves to be very aggressive but Enric Mas specially, on such a long climb, should be able to make the difference. To drop Roglic will be hard, but I reckon the Slovenian will be the only one at the same level. Stage 20 will be gruesome, but here it won't be hard until the final climb. Carapaz is a wildcard. David Gaudu, Carlos Rodríguez and Mattias Skjelmose are also in a very close level but they will need a super day to match or beat the previous riders; whilst Florian Lipowitz should be in Roglic duty regardless of what happens. Mikel Landa on paper would do good on a climb like this; he will feel the fatigue; but if he doesn't lose much time he can go all-out and be a dangerous wildcard for stage 20 to attack from the start of the stage.

Breakaway? - Well it's happened already many times. Primoz Roglic has won many stages, Ben O'Connor does not want to chase and allow his rivals to have bonifications at hand... It is a flat stage however, the likes of BORA, Movistar and maybe another team could put in one or two riders to chase on the flat roads and control things to then be able to fight for the stage win. The flat start makes it harder also to create a strong group up the road.

Another important day for the KOM classification of course, UAE Team Emirates will have to keep an eye and not give the GC riders an easy time. Marc Soler and Jay Vine are first and second with a big gap over the rest and if they keep it under control then they've got it in the bag. With a huge mountain day, and a flat start, I don't expect many GC outsiders to take risks...

We can see such riders as favourites: Steven Kruijswijk, Mattia Cattaneo, Attila Valter, Max Poole, Matthew Riccitello, Mikel Bizkarra, Harold Tejada, Isaac Del Toro, William Lecerf Junior, Pablo Castrillo, Filippo Zana, Marco Frigo and Mauro Schmid. Pure climbers do stand a good shot IF they manage to get into the breakaway. As it's the final week of a Grand Tour, there could be surprises too.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 19:

*** Primoz Roglic, Enric Mas, Jay Vine
** Richard Carapaz, Mattia Cattaneo, Matthew Riccitello, Max Poole
* David Gaudu, Mattias Skjelmose, Carlos Rodríguez, Ben O'Connor, Florian Lipowitz, Steven Kruijswijk, Harold Tejada, William Lecerf Junior, Pablo Castrillo, Filippo Zana, Marco Frigo

Pick: Jay Vine