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PREVIEW | Volta a Catalunya 2023 stage 4 - Sprinters and breakaway opportunists to battle for rare flat finale
CyclingThursday, 23 March 2023 at 09:52
Preview. After the riders have had their first two days in the mountains, some calm returns. Stage 4 of the Volta a Catalunya could finally be the opportunity the sprinters were looking for, but simultaneously a day where the breakaway has good chances.
Stage four will be fit for the sprinters, although a breakaway could carry significant danger. The start in Llívia is at over 1000 meters of altitude and they will climb La Molina early in the day. From 1700 to less than 200 meters in altitude is a big difference and the speeds will be very high throughout the rest of the day into Sabadell.
Start and finish time Stage 4: 12:30 - 17:00CET
Stage 4: Llivia – Sabadell, 188.2 kilometers
There will be a lot of rolling roads and small ascents throughout the day. A very tough day to control likely where the speeds will be very high and the sprinter teams will have to be on the gas all day long and never lat the gap grow a lot. Nevertheless, a bunch sprint will be hard to prevent, the final 30 kilometers are mostly flat - but descent slightly.
The finale into Sabadell won't be a tough or technical one. Rather, a fat one, with some corners with 2.9 and 1.7 kilometers to go. There is then likely going to be a furious race into a right-hander that comes with 500 meters to go, leaving the riders in the final straight.
Stage 4 Finale
The Weather
Map Volta a Catalunya 2023 stage 4
Some southern wind. This actually favours a possible sprint. The stage will be hilly, but overall it races towards the south, meaning there will be large sections of headwind.
The Favourites
Bryan Coquard - Coquard can survive the climbs certainly. That won't be the issue for him, but Cofidis is not a top team and will certainly put in all of their efforts to bring things back to a sprint. Although this may work, the sprint will be flat and he's unlikely to have a leadout, it won't be easy to succeed.
Kaden Groves - Groves has shown terrific form in Catalunya last year. 2023 so far however is being a completely different beast. Groves is by far the fastest sprinter in the race, but until he shows himself at the front of the peloton it won't be easy to take him on.
Ethan Hayter - Hayter sprinted to sixth in the opening stage. The best of the sprinters, but still at his best he surely would've been able to go higher. The flat sprint here won't be the best for him, but the overall tough day and lack of a GC man could see INEOS devote themselves to the cause.
Other teams could perhaps join the chase to make it happen. The lack of top sprinters could see other riders perform. Milan Menten, Corbin Strong, Clément Venturini, Dorian Godon and Arne Marit are all outsiders for this stage.
The chances of a breakaway succeeding however are high. Despite the non-favourable conditions, the mountainous start, hilly format of the day and tendency of downhill terrain will make it quite hard to put in a strong chase. Among the riders I rate the highest for a sprint I would have the likes of:
Ben Tulett, Rune Herregodts, Rein Taaramäe, Bruno Armirail, Stefano Oldani, Nicola Conci, Carlos Verona, Quinn Simmons, Nans Peters, Alessandro De Marchi, Andreas Kron, Maxim van Gils, Guillaume Boivin and Victor Langellotti. I think it needs a mix of a strong climber to be able to get away in the first climb of the day.
From there on it depends. Not many of the riders in the list have a strong sprint but some definitely do. If a breakaway was to succeed however it could very well see attacks in the final kilometers, although the flat roads won't be favourable to that.
Prediction Volta a Catalunya 2023 stage 4:
*** Rune Herregodts, Quinn Simmons, Andreas Kron
** Bryan Coquard, Ethan Hayter, Maxim van Gils, Stefano Oldani
* Kaden Groves, Milan Menten, Corbin Strong, Bruno Armirail, Nicola Conci, Nans Peters, Alessandro De Marchi, Guillaume Boivin
Pick: Rune Herregodts
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