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PREVIEW | UAE Tour 2024 stage 1 - Sprinter battle between Cavendish, Kooij, Merlier, Groves, Jakobsen, Groenewegen, Bennett, Welsford, Gaviria,...
CyclingMonday, 19 February 2024 at 08:54
Preview. Stage 1 of the UAE Tour can see echelons, but without a doubt will see a mythical sprint battle including the likes of Mark Cavendish, Olav Kooij, Tim Merlier, Sam Welsford and many more who seek the first race lead.
The desert stage. The first part (north-south direction) is approximately 45 km long, on one wide and straight road. After reaching Liwa, the race enters a zone of very steep dunes, which make up most of the stage. A series of climbs and descents leads to the Moreeb Dune, where the race will make two laps of the Moreeb Dune circuit (18.1 km each lap), marked by fairly steep climbs and descents with double-digit gradients. Then it's back to Liwa for the finish. The stage is on wide, straight roads with good pavement.
STAGE 1, AL DHAFRA WALK MADINAT ZAYED-LIWA PALACE, 143 KM
The finale however is not the typical UAE Tour dash to the line. This one will not be fast, the final 500 meters average 6% and it does rise up a little more than that to the line. An explosive and difficult sprint, in which the best will have to make quite a long effort to take the win.
The Weather
Map UAE Tour 2024 stage 1
Strong wind from the northeast. Exposed cross-tailwinds right from the starting line and over the first hour of racing has the potential to decimate the peloton. There will be no relaxing here and echelons are, dare I say, likely. However they may be discouraged by the fact that the riders then enter a hilly dune area, and return to face headwind. The finishing straight should have a crosswind, it can be tricky to manage specially with the uphill grades.
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The Favourites
Sam Welsford - The man of the moment - in January. Sam Welsford's time with BORA started off on the right foot with three victories at the Tour Down Under. With Danny van Poppel and Ryan Mullen in front of him he may find himself in the head of the peloton at the right time. The flat sprints he can handle, but I do have questions on whether he'll hold a one-minute effort with the best.
Olav Kooij - Kooij in my opinion is the ideal candidate for this opening sprint stage because believe it or not, most sprinters in the race cannot climb. The Dutchman is one of them, proven several times in the past, and done so very well at the European Championships for example. I do not doubt for a second that Visma will be caught out in the winds even with a modest lineup, Kooij has the speed but also the punchiness to finish off a sprint like this.
Mark Cavendish - On the other side we've got Mark Cavendish. Michael Morkov is here, but I think they'll aim more for the pan-flat sprints. Uphill I think he will struggle and the leadout may not help too much. In Colombia he won a stage but it was not convincing, but I do not discard a win later in the week.
Tim Merlier - Merlier is known to start off races very strong on the first day and was the winner of the opening day last year. At AlUla he sprinted to victory in a similar effort, quite well. A good mix, the Belgian can certainly continue Quick-Step's successful run through the Middle East.
Dylan Groenewegen - Groenewegen is in the same scenario as Cavendish, but last year at the Tour de France he proved to improve on the climbing. Certainly he's climbing as best as he's been ever, if he has the same form he can certainly sprint to victory here.
Fabio Jakobsen - Jakobsen is another pure sprinter who will not fancy the rise to the line. A strong contender for victory but mostly for the flat sprints. DSM have him and Tobias Lund Andresen who can fight for a result, if there is full commitment and the pieces fit into place, the two can work together for a strong result no doubt.
Kaden Groves - The first of Alpecin's four leaders begins his season. Kaden Groves proved his status last year with some quality victories. None was this early in the year however. With no racing in the legs and likely the classics as a big focus, the Australian may not have his best form. If he does however, he will enjoy such type of sprint.
This is a highly strong sprinter field and honestly there are victories contenders even outside of all the names above. The likes of Juan Sebastián Molano, Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria and who knows...Sam Bennett who is looking to start off his time with AG2R in a good note. Four days for these men to succeed but the earlier the better.
Expect also the likes of Arvid de Kleijn, Simone Consonni, Arne Marit, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Elia Viviani, Pascal Ackermann and Jakub Mareczko to also be eager to perform. The uphill sprint can open up space for surprises.
Prediction UAE Tour 2024 stage 2:
*** Olav Kooij, Tim Merlier
** Sam Welsford, Kaden Groves
* Danny van Poppel, Mark Cavendish, Dylan Groenewegen, Fabio Jakobsen, Juan Sebastián Molano, Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria, Sam Bennett, Arvid de Kleijn, Simone Consonni, Pascal Ackermann
Pick: Olav Kooij
Preview written by Rúben Silva.
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