SPRING -
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Stage 4: Al Shindagha - Dubai Harbour, 174 kilometers
It's far from a technical finale, as the riders make their way through the desert's urbanization. There will be a long right-hander with 800 meters to go leaving the riders in the finishing straight. It's a simple finish, leadouts will have only their power and strategy to blame if the plan doesn't work.
The Weather
UAE Tour 2023 stage 4 map
Some western breeze, however not strong enough to create echelons likely. Most of the stage taking place within Dubai will also help the peloton stay more calm as they won't find as many exposed roads.
The Favourites
Tim Merlier - Having taken the win on the opening day there are good arguments for the Belgian. Motivation is high in the Soudal - Quick-Step camp and Merlier will be the only sprinter without the pressure. This could propel him to a second wind, but many others will want to take it too.
Caleb Ewan - Usually, Ewan struggles a lot in heavily battled leadout fights. However with the addition of Jacopo Guarnieri to the leadout and a focused lineup he may overcome this. With headwind in the finish straight and having shown his speed on day 1 he is very much a favourite to take it this time around.
In all honesty luck may play a big role here. Although some teams have superior leadouts, the level is extremely high and there are several more riders who have the power to take a sprint in on a day like this.
Mark Cavendish has already shown good signs on the opening day,
Olav Kooij and
Phil Bauhaus also rode in the front group on stage 1 but lacked the speed in the final dash to the line.
Arnaud Démare, Fernando Gaviria, Sam Bennet, Sam Welsford and
Dylan Groenewegen can all realistically take the win as well, the latter mainly as he finds himself with a full leadout and Luka Mezgec who has a strong and powerful role.
The list also prolong into winning sprinters such as Gerben Thijssen and Juan Sebastian Molano. Marijn van den Berg, Elia Viviani, Itamar Einhorn, Arvid de Kleijn and Emils Liepins are all outsider for a strong result as well - who on a regular race would be among contenders for a possible podium.
Prediction UAE Tour 2023 stage 4:
*** Tim Merlier, Caleb Ewan, S
** Dylan Groenewegen, Arnaud Démare, Mark Cavendish, Olav Kooij
* Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria, Sam Welsford, Gerben Thijssen, Arvid de Kleijn
Pick: Caleb Ewan
