PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2025 stage 1 - Welsford, Bauhaus and Lund Andresen headline first World Tour sprint of the year
Cycling
From the 21st to the 26th of January we have got the first men's World Tour event of the year. In Australia, the Tour Down Under is every single season the first big race of the year and we preview stage 1.
The race starts off with a slightly hilly day from Prospect to Gumeracha, but it should be the sprinters to fight for the ochre jersey in the first finale of the race which will be rather technical. It's not a pan-flat day, with 1600 meters of climbing, but the climbing won't be too difficult either.
There will be a two-lap circuit into the the finish, it will include a climb that is 1.5 kilometers long at 6.7% which could do damage, but it comes with 30 kilometers to the finish and it's unlikely that there will be teams wanting to go all-out from that far out. Likely a fight for positioning, a relatively calm climb, and then the approach to the finish.
This one won't be easy, it's not a finale with sharp bends or road furniture but instead the final kilometers will zigzag through a valley, with small uphill and downhill gradients which mean that the teams will want to position themselves very well from early on. From 1.2 kilometers to go to 400 meters to go it rises slightly, and then the final 400 meters slowly tilt to the left and have a slightly downhill gradient to it.
The Weather
Amost 30 degrees on the thermometer, a proper hot day in Australia, with a slight southern breeze. The effect that this will have on the stage is that, you can forget the possibility of a few sprinters getting dropped on the climbs. Headwind on the small final hill, it will further discourage any idea of attacking the race.
The Favourites
Sam Welsford - In my opinion the man who will win the opening stage. In 2024 he brutalized the other sprinters and taking into consideration he already won two races in the past few weeks, it's safe to say he enters the race with form and confidence. The technical and very fast finale means starting a sprint from the front will be vital, and I can't see anyone doing better than Danny van Poppel as a leadout here.
Phil Bauhaus - The Germans can certainly put up a good fight I recon, it is a good finale for Phil Bauhaus, and with Nikias Arndt alongside him, he can be in good position to start his sprint. Out of the pure sprinters, he's the one who should be able to match Welsford the best, and he has to seize these days without serious climbing.
Tobias Lund Andresen - On the other end, Picnic PostNL would want some more climbing, but they will have to do with this for the first day. Lund has won several races last year and is a very talented sprinter. I wouldn't say the team has a particularly strong leadout though, so he will have to do a lot of work for himself which may prove costly.
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In such a day we will likely have a pure bunch sprint without many surprises. I look at Alpecin-Deceuninck well, a team with plenty experience in the sprints and with several fast men here. Who will they go with? I believe Henri Uhlig after he finished second at the Down Under Classic, with the support of Simon Dehairs and Lars Boven the team can certainly contest with BORA in the final kilometer.
Matthew Brennan also showed himself well a few days ago in that fast finale. He, Arne Marit and Tim Torn Teutenberg will be some interesting youngsters who will be motivated to perform at a World Tour race. Bryan Coquard, Corbin Strong, Laurence Pithie, Andrea Vendrame, Casper Pedersen and Rui Oliveira are all certain to give it a shot, but they will likely have their eyes more on some of the other stages where the climbing can eliminate some of their rivals.
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Prediction 2025 Tour Down Under stage 1:
*** Sam Welsford, Phil Bauhaus
** Tobias Lund Andresen, Henri Uhlig
* Simon Dehairs, Arne Marit, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Matthew Brennan, Bryan Coquard, Laurence Pithie, Rui Oliveira
Pick: Sam Welsford
Original: Rúben Silva
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Don't just watch the action, be part of it! 🚲 From children to adults, there's a ride for every level of cyclist 🙌 Join the ride: https://t.co/S7UhhJpJmR#TourDownUnder @SantosLtd pic.twitter.com/gsq8T7ADmf
— Santos Tour Down Under 🚴🚴♀️ (@tourdownunder) January 8, 2025
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- Mistakes happen but it's a big one to throw your teammates under the bus ...bruins3011-03-2025
- Merlier doesn't need too much support, he's brilliant alone, a master in positioning.
maria2024202411-03-2025 - He would have to prove that if he won by a small margin, but as dominant as he was, there's no need to prove anything in my viewvappaxbipmv11-03-2025
- Anyone willing to report on how they split the work, balanced or was there a disproportionate from either or both of the favourites or the domestiques?Mistermaumau11-03-2025
- He does that to everyone. Makes wild assumptions and accusations without base for the sake of fighting. Constructs a straw man, attacks it with some ad hominem in there, and thinks it provokes stimulating debate. The guy isn’t worth your time.Evan11-03-2025
- Merlier with Bert leading him out against Milan and his whole sprint train will be such a fun competition. I think Merlier has an edge as he’s shown himself to be incredibly adaptable to the race situation, surf wheels, and improvise. For Milan, if his train nails it, he’s the best. If they don’t, Merlier takes the W. I still don’t get why Alpecin neglected Merlier in favor of Philipsen in ‘21. I recall MVDP even stating that Merlier was fastest in the peloton at that point.Evan11-03-2025
- I know, I was replying to him. I have never criticized him. I think he replied to the wrong person. I saw the long thread of argument in another article. I wasn't involved in any argument with him.
KerisVroom11-03-2025 - That was a reply to MrM not you.Cyclingsbestfan11-03-2025
- I see, I stand corrected. I thought Jonas never raced there, but I think it probably didn't register to me because he wasn't as famous back then.KerisVroom11-03-2025
- Tibo slaved on his last TDF for Gaudu's 10th place. Then Demare situation where he got pushed out was also badabstractengineer11-03-2025