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PREVIEW | Tour de Romandie 2024 stage 1 - Ethan Hayter for a sprint? Julian Alaphilippe to attack? A lot can happen on hilly day
CyclingWednesday, 24 April 2024 at 11:05
Stage 1 of the Tour de Romandie will be a hilly and very open day. Maikel Zijlaard will have a difficult task to defend his lead in a day where we could see a breakaway win, late attack or reduced bunch sprint.
Stage 1 of the Swiss race will have a finale in Fribourg after 165 kilometers in a day that features quite a lot of rolling roads. Possibly, it's a day for the sprinters, but there could be some surprises. The riders have a two-lap circuit towards the end of the stage with two main climbs where sprinters can be dropped.
Stage 1: Château-d'Oex - Fribourg, 165.6 kilometers
One of them is 700 meters at 13% which summits with 36.5 kilometers to go, followed by rolling roads. This particularly is an attractive place to attack, but perhaps too early for the likings of some riders - although if it were a classic, without a doubt there would be action here.
The final climb is 1.8 kilometers at 7.3% into Arconciel, it ends with 10 kilometers to go. It is close enough to the finish that a strong group going up the road can be very hard to bring back. The peloton will not be able to have a full-on chase after these efforts.
The riders descend almost all the way into the final 4 kilometers. These will then be flat into Fribourg, there is still time to bring things back into a sprint.
The Weather
Map Tour de Romandie 2024 stage 1
Snow fell in Fribourg today. That's how bad the weather is in Switzerland at this time. We've got very low winter temperatures all day long, some wind and possibility of some rain at the end of the afternoon. We've got some southwestern wind, a general tailwind throughout the day. A crosswind in the final climb and a tailwind almost all the way to the finish, favouring attackers.
The Favourites
A second day in Romandie and a second very open stage. Many scenarios can decide the outcome of the stage. The first of which being a sprint. The weather favours those who want to attack, but the profile is overall not overly hard and some of the sprinters present can climb quite well. Hence, we can expect them to survive the climbs, and with some alliances and luck keep everything together and have a sprint finish. Ethan Hayter, Andrea Vendrame, Alex Aranburu, Clément Venturini and Milan Menten are certainly among the big favourites and the best type of rider for such a stage. Stefano Oldani, Dorian Godon, Henok Mulubrhan, Tim van Dijke and Sergio Higuita would also like a tough day ending in a sprint, although they are not as strong in a flat finish.
However a few more can survive. This is a race without sprinters and some riders who don't win as often can certainly take the opportunity. Tudor have a big day as they lead the race, Maikel Zijlaard will be focused on defending the lead. If he survives he's an option for a sprint. However if both he and Alberto Dainese survive, he can certainly try and leadout the Italian for a second consecutive win for the team. Simone Consonni, Pavel Bittner, Emils Liepins, Nikias Arndt and Cyril Barthe are more sprinters to add to the equation, these will want a calmer race.
However attacks will come, with certainty. The final climb is not overly hard, which means that many riders could have the legs to make a move. The race lead is at stake, and with a very fast finale that features a tailwind, riders will know that a gap over the summit may mean an imminent victory - as the peloton won't likely be compact and organizing a chase in so little distance won't be an easy task. The final flat kilometers, although it is harder, also provide an opportunity to make a late move. Here the likes of Magnus Sheffield, Thomas de Gendt, Bruno Armirail, Rémi Cavagna and Rune Herregodts would be extremely dangerous.
However it's uphill that I expect the main moves. UAE for example have four GC contenders and other quality riders who can also go for the stage. Take Brandon McNulty and Pavel Sivakov who should have freedom, whilst Jan Christen won in a finale just like this at the Giro d'Abruzzo just a few weeks ago.
Three danger men are in my card: Julian Alaphilippe who looked very sharp today and is very close to the race lead, he has every interest in attacking the race and dropping Zijlaard; Richard Carapaz who is now virtually a puncheur and looked very explosive at Liège; and Alexey Lutsenko who is in tremendous form and is the perfect kind of rider to be able to attack such a finale, have some freedom but quality to make the difference by himself. I wouldn't discount Luke Plapp trying the same, whilst the likes of Jan Tratnik, Thibau Nys and Gianni Vermeersch at their best could also make an attempt but I don't know if they'll be on their best legs.
Prediction Tour de Romandie 2024 stage 1:
*** Milan Menten, Julian Alaphilippe
** Ethan Hayter, Andrea Vendrame, Simone Consonni
* Sergio Higuita, Cyril Barthe, Clément Venturini, Alex Aranburu, Pavel Bittner, Henok Mulubrhan, Alberto Dainese, Brandon McNulty, Luke Plapp, Magnus Sheffield, Richard Carapaz, Alexey Lutsenko, Rune Herregodts, Thomas de Gendt
Pick: Simone Consonni
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