PREVIEW | Tour de Pologne 2024 stage 1 - Test of fire for Jonas Vingegaard's form

From the 12th to 18th of August we have on the road the Tour de Pologne. It collides with other big races in the calendar but every year it features a quality startlist with all kinds of riders. The seven stages will provide plenty opportunities in the only World Tour stage-race that comes between the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana. We preview stage 1.

The race starts off with a hilly stage where the overall classification contenders will be tested. Overall, 157 kilometers on the menu and most of them relatively uneventful, with a few small ascents - categorized and uncategorized, but ultimately only in the final kilometers will we have real action.

It is a small hilltop finish in Karpacz. All about positioning. There is a 2.9-kilometers ascent at 4.5% which gradually becomes more steep up to the intermediate sprint which comes with only 4.5 kilometers to go. Shortly after there is a small ascent and there will be fight into that section and the bottom of the final climb.

The final hilltop is a gradual rise to the line as well, to end in a (possibly long) sprint. It's 3.2 kilometers at 6.5%, most of the climb in big-ring gradients, but in the final kilometer it goes up to 10%. The final 500 meters are the toughest and we may see small gaps at the finish.

The Weather

A regular sunny and warm afternoon in southern Poland. Don't expect the weather to play a role.

The Favourites

Jonas Vingegaard - After a disappointing performance at the Clásica San Sebastián, form will definitely be a doubt for Vingegaard and confidence won't be too high. This isn't a finale difficult enough for him, it's one for the puncheurs. Still, the 10% gradients to the line will be good for a lightweight like him. Visma don't have to choose, both him and Wilco Kelderman will be fighting for the stage win but above all they will be thinking of the overall classification.

UAE - UAE will likely want to keep their cards intact, but simultaneously they can do real damage on this stage. They have lots of puncheurs coming in. Diego Ulissi has a taylor-made finale for him and on his best day Tim Wellens can certainly also take the win. Jan Christen, Rafal Majka and Felix Grossschartner should also be towards the front and also possible help leadout the sprint in the end.

Lidl-Trek - Trek have decisions to make. On his best day Andrea Bagioli could be a good option, but likely not yet here. Mads Pedersen could well survive the climb but I think it will be hard for him to have the explosivity into the final ramp that will be necessary. For Thibau Nys however I think the finale is very well suited. It features climbing to drain the fast men, but the decisions will be in that final steep ramp where he packs a world-class punch. In my opinion, one of the two big favourites for the day.

This stage should essentially be a slow build-up until the final 500 meters. There shouldn't be serious attacks beforehand, and there will be a leadout fight until there, with a long sprint following between those that have the explosivity. We have plenty riders capable of winning... Groupama has the holy trinity of underrated puncheurs in Itzulia stage winner Romain Grégoire, classics specialist Laurence Pithie and winner of the famous Mur de Thuin at the Tour de Wallonie Samuel Watson. All are valid options for a stage win and perhaps it is their best opportunity.

We have more climbing-oriented puncheurs such as Max Schachmann, Aurélien Paret-Peintre or DSM duo of Romain Bardet and Oscar Onley... But also pure puncheurs who will favour from a conservative day such as Timo Kielich, Christian Scaroni, Lukas Nerurkar or Movistar's Gonzalo Serrano.

Prediction Tour de Pologne 2024 stage 1:

*** Diego Ulissi, Thibau Nys
** Romain Grégoire, Tim Wellens, Max Schachmann
* Mads Pedersen, Jonas Vingegaard, Samuel Watson, Laurence Pithie, Timo Kielich, Jan Christen, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Romain Bardet, Oscar Onley, Wilco Kelderman

Pick: Thibau Nys