PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 12 - Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard go head-to-head on mythical Hautacam

The Tour de France FINALLY reaches the high mountains. We preview stage 12, a day that will be crucial for the overall classification, and one in which the riders will find a summit finish at Hautacam. We also expect the first high-mountain battle between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard since the Criterium du Dauphiné.

The first high mountain stage of the race. After a flat start the riders enter the Pyrenees and the final ascent to Hautacam can cause serious damage. Starting in Auch, the riders may certainly have a calm start to the day but that will change in the final third as the riders go deep into the mountains.

The Col du Soulor will be the first proper climb of the race and a rude awakening for many in the peloton. It summits with 46 kilometers to go and it is 11.6 kilometers long at 7.6%, difficult enough to destroy the peloton quite a lot.

Shortly after a descent there will then Col des Bordères which is 3.3 kilometers at 8%, ending with 35 kilometers to go. It will then be a very quick approach to the final ascent.

Its 13.6 kilometers at 7.8% and has in the past created massive differences at the Tour. The same is expected this time around. It's the first hard summit finish of the race, in the high mountains, and on a climb where last time around Jonas Vingegaard distanced Tadej Pogacar.

It will be a day without much wind but with quite some heat. We can expect temperatures of 26 degrees towards the summit finish but when you're climbing in the mountains this temperature can feel significantly higher and some riders may struggle with it. Definitely a threatening day and we may see a few riders crack with the first clash in the high mountains.

Tadej Pogacar - The most consistent and strongest climber in the peloton is the man to beat here. A lot can be said of how Visma has been racing but on paper this is an honest stage, one where it's hard to surprise, and the W/Kg will speak very highly. Pogacar under regular conditions should be the best on the day but this will be a stage where explosivity won't really play a factor and it will be an interesting question whether Vingegaard has been able to close the gap - taking into consideration how the Dane has been performing so far this race. UAE shouldn't suffer from the absence of Almeida here, it'll be hard for Visma to be able to put serious pressure with such a profile. Although his crash today will not have likely had big consequences, it can create some questions in his mind tomorrow for sure.

Jonas Vingegaard - The Dane is looking extremely sharp and giving all the good signs. Psychologically speaking I think he has also been racing well and Visma have been trying to drain UAE psychologically with constant attacks and forcing constant chase. Now however there is little room for tactics and it'll be all in the legs. Vingegaard should be above everyone except the World Champion, but it's hard to say how the two will be against each other. It can be a make or break day for Vingegaard, he cannot afford to be dropped and lose significant time as that'll leave a big mark.

GC Fight - With a flat start to the stage don't expect any big GC men to try and get in the breakaway, and equally try and surprise on what are constant climbs and a difficult summit finish. Everyone will follow the UAE/Visma train and then ride the best they can in the final kilometers (what we should expect from most mountain stages).

Remco Evenepoel will be looking to defend his spot on the podium and it'll be an important day for him to understand how deep he can go against his direct rivals. From Ben Healy I don't expect him to keep the yellow jersey but I do expect a strong performance and for him to remain in the first positions; whilst Kévin Vauquelin is also likely to lose some positions now that we're in the long climbs. Florian Lipowitz is a serious contender to be amongst the best and move up the GC, whilst men like Felix Gall and Enric Mas also want that quite a lot and may have their teams at some point pushing the pace to make it harder on their direct Top10 rivals. Primoz Roglic's form has also been improving throughout the race and it'll be very interesting to see how far to the front he can be in this ascent.

Breakaway - Hard, but there is a chance it can succeed on the day. It would require UAE to leave a large gap to develop before the start of the climbs (I mean large, 6/7 minutes at the bare minimum). But at this point in time we've got a very clear image of who the main men to keep an eye on are taking into consideration the big GC differences and the breakaway stages we've had thus far.

Mattias Skjelmose, 18th in GC, is likely the best positioned rider who's willing to risk it all. Guillaume Martin, Ben O'Connor, Thymen Arensman, Michael Storer, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Alexey Lutsenko, Santiago Buitrago and Lenny Martínez are the men to keep under eye. A few others may also be quite important but it depends on the freedom they may have from their leaders and the team tactics.

*** Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard
** Remco Evenepoel, Florian Lipowitz
* Matteo Jorgenson, Ben Healy, Primoz Roglic, Felix Gall, Enric Mas, Ben O'Connor, Thymen Arensman, Michael Storer, Lenny Martínez

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

How: Solo win, but I don't expect the difference to Vingegaard to be big.