PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 14 - Will Jonas Vingegaard attack Tadej Pogacar on high mountain battle?

The few sprint days we've just had at the Tour de France have delivered incredible action and now we are back in the mountains. We preview stage 14, the first day in the Pyrenees where Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard will go head-to-head in climbs such as the Col du Tourmalet and the summit finish in Pla d'Adet.

The race is back into the mountains and there is no warming up. The Tour keeps it's modern traditional formula, with a short stage featuring a flat start. So it will be very hard for a breakaway to stand any chances. The GC riders are likely to fight for the win in a day including the Col du Tourmalet, Hourquette d'Ancizan and finally a summit finish on the Pla d'Adet which is over 10 kilometers long at 8%.

The start of the day is... Completely flat, nothing even noteworthy. Most riders will likely just wait until the mountains to really kick off the action, but this is a day where a breakaway is likely doomed because the strong climbers don't have the opportunity to make a difference early in the day. With 70 kilometers of racing, into the second half of the day, the climbing starts and with a big one!

The Col du Tourmalet is the most used climb in Tour de France history and it returns to the menu of the first Pyreneen stage. It is 18.9 kilometers long at a stable 7.4%. A constant climb, an effort of over 45 minutes in steep gradients which will put many into difficulty. For the pure climbers this is close to heaven, and the top is at over 2100 meters of altitude so that statement is not just figurative...

The riders hit the summit with 62.5 kilometers to go and descend off the other side, very quickly they reach the second ascent of the day. The "easiest", it's the Hourquette d'Ancizan which summits with only 28.5 kilometers to go. It's 8.2 kilometers long at just over 5% but this does actually include a whole downhill kilometer. Most of the climb is within the 7/8% gradients, but don't expect attacks here, only more pace setting and preparation for the final climb.

It will be on the Pla d'Adet where all the action is expected. 10.6 kilometers ay 8%, it's a difficult climb and also a bit of a shock to the system because the hardest section is the first half of the climb which averages around 10%. A brute, and you can make serious differences here without a shadow of a doubt. The gradients are slightly lower in the second half, the climbers can do some of it in the big ring, but the damage will have been done closer to the base with certainty.

The Weather

Some cooler weather. Not much wind during the day, although the gusts will come from the south - but this doesn't particularly either harm or benefit the riders.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar - No Juan Ayuso now, although that won't really make a difference for Pogacar honestly. The team is all in for him, and he will need them. In great form, nothing indicates he could have a bad day here, but I wouldn't bet either on him gaining time on such a climb where I'd say Vingegaard has the advantage. The team will likely want to keep the GC as it is and hope for Adam Yates and João Almeida's presence to prevent a bit ideas from Visma.

Jonas Vingegaard - Confidence will be high and for good reason. I don't think we're seeing a non-perfect Vingegaard, the Dane is in his peak form. Visma have ridden defensively so far everyday in this race, waiting for the high mountain days. In stage 15 I have no doubt they will attack, but I'm not certain if they will already do so here. Tourmalet will be long and Pla d'Adet is hard and steep enough to burn off Pogacar's explosivity. This kind of climb is where Vingegaard can usually make the difference, I wouldn't be surprised if this is where he attacks Pogacar for the first time. Visma don't have the team to destroy UAE however, he will have a battle against numbers but on such a steep climb that doesn't really make much difference.

The rest of the field: Ride in the wheel and survive the stage as best as possible, quite simple. That is why Remco Evenepoel remains in second in the GC, Soudal have not been tested at all in this race and he can just do his race as when it blows up no-one else has team either. Mikel Landa will start the stage in sixth place and it is a day that suits him quite well, it could be that here the Basque will actually be of some support whilst keeping himself near the top of the GC.

INEOS have Carlos Rodríguez who is well suited to this stage, but INEOS won't work either. If he wants to go for the podium however it will very much require him to take time on Evenepoel at some point, and here will have to at least match him. Giulio Ciccone, Egan Bernal, Matteo Jorgenson, Derek Gee, Felix Gall and Santiago Buitrago should also be in and around the front in chase of a top result and climbing up the GC.

Then the breakaway, of course, but I don't think this will be a day for them. The first half of the stage is completely flat and so it is bad for those who want to go away, specially the lightweight climbers. We've got teams with no more GC ambitions left, who will focus completely on this goal like Movistar who have Enric Mas, Javier Romo and Oier Lazkano; Jayco who have Simon Yates and Chris Harper; and DSM who have Romain Bardet, Oscar Onley, Frank van den Broek and Warren Barguil.

We've also got as contenders riders such as Jai Hindley, Guillaume Martin, Richard Carapaz, Tom Pidcock, Tobias Johannessen and David Gaudu. With a bad day, a few riders will join this list in the following days.

Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 14:

*** Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar
** Remco Evenepoel, Carlos Rodríguez
* Mikel Landa, Giulio Ciccone, Felix Gall, Derek Gee, Javier Romo, Simon Yates, Guillaume Martin, Romain Bardet, Tobias Johannessen, David Gaudu

Pick: Jonas Vingegaard