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PREVIEW | Tirreno-Adriatico 2023 stage 6 - Brutal circuit finish filled with extremely steep climbs to decide GC
CyclingSaturday, 11 March 2023 at 10:50
Preview. A modern classic for Tirreno-Adriatico, following the mountain stages the race organizers have put on a very difficult but completely different stage. Stage 6 to Osimo features a final circuit packed with short and steep ascents.
Stage six sees a format that has become quite frequent at Tirreno-Adriatico. It is a stage where everything can be turnt on it's head, it doesn't feature any large mountain, but in the very steep and repeated ascents around Osimo the race can explode and put many under pressure. 3500 meters of climbing without a single long ascent. This is a brutal day by anyone's standards, and the overall classification can very well be turned on ti's head.
Start Time: 11:30CET
Finish Time: 16:30CET
Stage 6: Osimo Stazione - Osimo, 194 kilometers
The second half of the day features a three-lap circuit around the Marche, and the city of Osimo. This features four ascents, the final three of which are in the last 13 kilometers.
2.1Km at 5.7% with 13 kilometers to go warm it up, and an absolute wall follows. 1.4Km at 12.9% with the last meters in non-paved roads that go up to almost 20%. It is not hard to imagine the race implodes before the final lap. However if it comes to that, the spectacular images should also provide for a heated GC battle that will be decided in the streets of Osimo.
The stage ends in the town center in tight streets. The steep pitch ends with only 4.7 kilometers to go. A shor descent follows and then another uphill drag to the line, which could be explosive but at this point should be about survival for the stage contenders. 1.6Km at 5.9% in total, however flat on it's base and end, and featuring ramps up to 11%. A worthy finale for what is set to be an epic stage.
Stage 6 Finale
The Weather
Tirreno-Adriatico stage 6 map
Western wind at first, switching to northeast later in the day. It won't make a meaningful difference however, in the final circuit there's little benefit to slipstreaming in the first place and the wind won't be strong enough to affect it.
The Favourites
Jumbo-Visma - In the lead now. Jumbo-Visma have seen Primoz Roglic back. I will say, despite his 2 wins, Roglic did not look at his best today, and could not match the main attacks in the climb. The pressure surely won't be too high for the Dutch team but now having Roglic win the overall classification should be the main goal. Wilco Kelderman, Wout van Aert, Tiesj Benoot and Attila Valter would all be favourites for the stage win, but in this case I think collective will prevail - but in such terrain it will be a tough task for Roglic.
UAE Team Emirates - The main day to strike was today in the long ascent. It won't be easy for UAE to deal damage tomorrow, but they do have depth and form. Adam Yates, João Almeida and Brandon McNulty will all have the opportunity to try and turn the GC on it's head. Davide Formolo and Alessandro Covi are also legitimate contenders if they find themselves in a breakaway.
BORA - BORA are no longer in the lead of the race, but can be very threatening. Both Jai Hindley and Aleksandr Vlasov should have free role to attack the race. Lennard Kämna in the meanwhile sits second in the overall classification and has proven to be at the level of winning the race. Having many cards and great form will be a very important factor for the day.
Julian Alaphilippe - The Frenchman looks back to very good form. Strade Bianche was a big test and he failed there, which leads to some uncertainty on whether he will perform. His signs at Tirreno-Adriatico however have been good, with him finishing second to Roglic in the hilltop finish. Here with many steep ascents, he will be in his field, and does not have a GC anchor putting him in a position where he would be marked.
Giulio Ciccone and Tao Geoghegan Hart have looked very sharp today and will be big threats to the stage win, as well as the GC - which remains very tight as there was no stage creating meaningful gaps. Enric Mas and Hugh Carthy also look bright and will be deep in the action. Bahrain - Victorious won't now have terrain as favourable to attack, but all of Mikel Landa, Damiano Caruso and Santiago Buitrago finished up front today and their strength in numbers may be significant.
Then there is the section of the classics riders. Many come here and will be licking their lips at this stage, which replicates quite well the profile found in classics such as the Tour des Flandres and the Ardennes classics with so many repetitive and sharp efforts. Tom Pidcock and Mathieu van der Poel are two very interesting riders but very inconsistent, it won't be easy to see them in contention tomorrow.
Valentin Madouas has finished second at Strade Bianche and here he could take the big victory he's looking for. Benoît Cosnefroy and Michael Woods are riders that thrive in the steep climb and could surprise on such a day. Alex Aranburu, Lorenzo Rota, Warren Barguil and Axel Zingle conclude a list of puncheurs who I believe have the possibility of playing a role in tomorrow's outcome.
Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2023 stage 6:
*** Primoz Roglic, Julian Alaphilippe, Giulio Ciccone
** Adam Yates, Aleksandr Vlasov, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Valentin Madouas
* Wout van Aert, João Almeida, Jai Hindley, Enric Mas, Hugh Carthy, Mikel Landa, Tom Pidcock, Benoît Cosnefroy
** Adam Yates, Aleksandr Vlasov, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Valentin Madouas
* Wout van Aert, João Almeida, Jai Hindley, Enric Mas, Hugh Carthy, Mikel Landa, Tom Pidcock, Benoît Cosnefroy
Pick: Julian Alaphilippe
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