Preview Strade Bianche 2026 - Tadej Pogacar to dominate again; Or can Paul Seixas and Tom Pidcock worry him?

On the 7th of March, the men's peloton takes on one of its most unique and prestigious classics: Strade Bianche. On the gravel roads of Tuscany, the riders find every year a brutal route that goes through steep hills, extensive off-road sectors, and scenic landscapes, which quickly turned the race into one of the sport's landmarks. We preview the men's race, expected to start and finish at 11:45 and 16:00CET.

The race was created back in 2007 and currently, it perhaps holds the pole position for the next race to potentially reach monument status. It doesn't have the same history as its peers, but the race's reputation is simply unmatched by any other in the peloton currently, and its list of winners is eye-watering. Since 2014, only one winner has not won in the past a Tour de France, World title (including road, CX and MTB) or monument; displaying how only the top riders can win in this race.

Alexandr Kolobnev won the opening edition in 2007, and the next year none other than Fabian Cancellara made the trip to Tuscany to take his first of three wins. The race grew in startlist quality very quickly and in 2011, Philippe Gilbert won ahead of an historic season. Fabian Cancellara followed in 2012; Moreno Moser in 2013; Michal Kwiatkowski in 2014; Zdenek Stybar in 2015; Cancellara and Kwiatkowski won again the following years; Tiesj Benoot in 2018, Julian Alaphilippe in 2019...

In the 2020's not only are the winners highly reputable but also all the riders who have made it onto the podiums. Wout van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar, Tom Pidcock and in the last two editions again Pogacar have won this race. In 2025, the World Champion crashed heavily on the gravel roads but nevertheless had an iconic solo win in Siena.

The route has ben slightly changed from previous editions, however its difficulty has not diminished one bit. 202 kilometers on the menu, with 3500 meters of climbing - although the race does not have a single mountain to tackle. It's all due to the short - and mostly steep ascents, and the constant up-and-down the riders will be facing.

There are 64 kilometers of gravel divided into 14 sectors, as short as 600 meters long and as big as 11.7Km in length, and they aren’t concentrated in any specific area of the route but rather spread evenly throughout the entire race, it’s one of attrition, where tactics, positioning and let’s admit, a tad bit of luck all have to be ticked off the box. The route starts off in some rolling roads and just a bit before the halfway point of the race the first major challenge comes.

Lucignano d’Asso sector, the 5th and biggest of the race and finishes with 127Km to go, it’s a fairly hard sector that has a lot of room for crashes, punctures, splits, etc… Every sector (and well every Kilometer) is a chance for something to go wrong, and like in the cobbles it’s a matter of having the least possible energy spent unnecessary, this is where the real race starts!

Monte Sante Marie is perhaps the first crucial sector of the race, ending with just over 72 kilometers to go and featuring a whole kilometer at 10%. This is where Tadej Pogacar has made the difference in the past two editions. However the sheer size and diversity of gradients found throughout the sector makes it a brutal one that will inevitably explode the race.

Colle Pinzuto finishes with 53Km to go and is one of the last pieces of brutal roads where gaps can be made out of power and not opportunity, it’s one that doesn’t include descents so it’s quite a brute.

Le Tolfe follows, it summits with 42Km to go and is a U shaped sector, you enter it full speed in a descent and then have a nasty ramp in the gravel, the last white road of the race and for sure at this race we can have the rider, or the group of riders who will fight for the win.

Traditionally, the riders would then have a few hills and ride into Siena just a few kilometers away. In 2024 an extra loop was added and it has stayed. This will feature the 3.3-kilometer long downhill San Giovanni a Cerreto which ends with 22.5 kilometers to go.

In antecedes Colle Pinzuto and Le Tolfe which will be climbed for a second time. These will end with 17 and 12 kilometers to go, by this point the race may already be decided, but if not certainly these pinch points can be the end of many riders' ambitions.

From there on there are 12 kilometers into the finish line. They will by no means be easy as the road keeps tilting either up or down, however it does give some opportunity to reconsolidate the race and possible form alliances ahead of the final ascent.

If a group, it will all be decided in the narrow streets of Siena, Via Santa Caterina is one of the most iconic places in cycling and you’re sure to get some awesome images. The decisive ramp will go up to 16% in it's steepest section (700 meters, 9% average gradient) and the final corners into the heart of Siena will be a final opportunity to overtake other riders.

Sunny skies most of the week, there will be a dusty race.

Tadej Pogacar - Without mishaps, he wins. The preview could come down to that in short words. Pogacar is simply the strongest rider in such a race and he is also the rider with the best team, making it a virtually impenetrable armour that other teams have to go through. With modest support I would doubt anyone could come close already because with Monte Sante Marie so far from the finish, he could do a two-hour time trial and put minutes on the rest. UAE can try that again, however I don't think they need to. With Isaac del Toro, who has given every sign of being just as strong as anyone else on these roads, UAE can either leadout Pogacar until almost no-one is there or, if someone matches him, then play the numbers game. Don't ignore than Jan Christen and Florian Vermeersch are also present, who can in regular conditions even like this fight for a Top5. All of this also is missing Tim Wellens who was on the podium last year.

Tom Pidcock - The Briton looked incredible last year, and prevented a monotonous solo win. He is, like all others, not at the level of Pogacar; but he may be the rider who is closest. But Pidcock is a superb bike handler which does give him the option to put pressure on even UAE; he is a good contender for the podium.

Paul Seixas - Decathlon have a very strong team, but when you look at UAE who have four riders who could be their own leaders in different teams then it doesn't really matter much besides positioning early in the race. But Seixas is an 'alien' as you'd say in cycling terms and I don't think you have to put him under the "getting experience" category, no he should be up there right away with the best. The race doesn't feature long climbs where he thrives but it is decided on climbs; and in his current form he can just about take on anyone. He has that unknown factor as well, which against Pogacar might not mean much, but against all others might.

Visma - Visma aren't here to fight for the win, that should be clear. It's not a Visma versus UAE, because objectively they do not have the power for it. Wout van Aert returns to the race but this has since his heyday become a race more guided towards climbers than what it used to be. But even then, he needs to be in absolute top form to be in the podium - whilst winning against Pogacar here is simply not possible in regular conditions. Van Aert, Matteo Jorgenson and Ben Tulett can all fight for a Top10, and the American is likely to be the most protected figure.

The race features some gravel experts such as Quinn Simmons - mainly - and Gianni Vermeersch who can really be up there in this kind of race even if not having their top form, as they know exactly how to tackle it. Vermeersch could be a key lieutenant for Giulio Pellizzari too who looked very strong in early February and I suspect will have a very strong spring.

There are some experienced figures such as Egan Bernal, Julian Alaphilippe, Richard Carapaz and Pello Bilbao who can certainly use their past experience in this race to put in good performances; whilst on the younger side we have Lennert van Eetvelt, Afonso Eulálio, Ben Healy, Clément Champoussin, Filippo Zana and of course, Romain Grégoire - also in tremendous form and a specialist in the short efforts - as outsiders.

*** Tadej Pogacar
** Tom Pidcock, Isaac del Toro, Paul Seixas
* Wout van Aert, Matteo Jorgenson, Jan Christen, Florian Vermeersch, Lennert van Eetvelt, Giulio Pellizzari, Quinn Simmons, Pello Bilbao, Richard Carapaz, Ben Healy, Romain Grégoire, Julian Alaphilippe, Ben Healy

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

How: Solo win.