Preview stage 4 Tour Down Under 2026 - Old Willunga Hill is out; sprinters get a new opportunity in the brutal heat

We preview stage 4 of the Tour Down Under that is set to take place on the 24th January, having an estimated start time at 01:40CET and finishing at 05:40CET. The stage was going to, initially, take the riders up the Old Willunga Hill on three occasions, however it has been changed due to the extreme heat, which will provide the sprinters with another opportunity to fight for the win.

The profile of stage 4 has been modified. Due to extreme heat, with temperatures looking to reach as high as 43 degrees in the Adelaide region, there is an extreme fire risk which has forced race organizers to cancel the ascents of Old Willunga Hill. The stage will begin in Brighton, but will then follow a mostly flat course, ending in Willunga, replicating the finale of the women's Tour Down Under stage finale, with a slight uphill ramp to the line.

As we've established, the wind doesn't seem to play much of a role in this race, despite its intensity. Tomorrow more of the same is expected, with the wind blowing hard from the northwest which should give us a tailwind sprint in Willunga and along the final kilometers. But as was previously mentioned, it is the extreme heat the riders will be under that can really make it complicated, and dare I say perhaps even unsafe.

Sam Welsford - INEOS have gotten their win with Welsford which was important. Now the INEOS rider has a new opportunity, but the arrival in Willunga is slightly uphill, and even though he won today he struggled a lot. Hence I think it's optimistic to think he'd be able to sprint against his rivals with the road going up like this, and the team is more likely to give freedom to Sam Watson who is at the end of the day better adapted to such a finale.

Matthew Brennan - Brennan has failed with positioning on both sprints thus far, which is an issue. However this sprint, this time around, will have nothing of technical and finishes uphill, which makes positioning less important. This gives him more space to be able to actually do a proper sprint from a good position, whilst on paper Filippo Fiorelli is also a good leadout for such a finale.

Tobias Lund Andresen - He isn't a stronger sprinter than the two above, but he climbs better than Welsford and has positioned himself much better than Brennan. The Dane is in the lead of the points classification for a reason and he can surely finish high up there once again - and win for a second time if his rivals do not have their best day.

There are a few riders who may struggle with the finale such as Juan Sebastián Molano, Alberto Dainese or Casper van Uden who do pack a lot of speed; even Danny van Poppel as well, not because of his quality but rather the form he hasn't shown. BORA may give freedom to Laurence Pithie, in a case that is almost identical to that of INEOS.

NSN have a choice to make, with Jake Stewart doing the sprint today and putting in a strong result they may go with him, but the truth is that both Ethan Vernon and Corbin Strong are on paper also well suited to this finale. We've also got Tim Torn Teutenberg, Aaron Gate, Luke Lamperti, Lionel Taminiaux, Jensen Plowright and Lewis Bower to add into the mix.

Lastly, the fight for the bonus seconds may also come alive, with Finn Fisher-Black and Mauro Schmid being very explosive riders who carry a strong sprint that can see them up there, but the big question is on Jhonatan Narváez. On paper, he can fight for them and the win here, but will UAE let him? Jay Vine is only 6 seconds ahead, and I am not sure if the team will want to take this win away from him.

*** Matthew Brennan, Tobias Lund Andresen
** Jake Stewart, Sam Watson, Laurence Pithie
* Sam Welsford, Danny van Poppel, Corbin Strong, Ethan Vernon, Casper van Uden, Lionel Taminiaux, Jhonatan Narváez, Finn Fisher-Black, Mauro Schmid

Pick: Matthew Brennan

How: I will put faith in him, despite him missing out on the last sprints, because this stage now suits him very well.