Preview. Stage 6 of Itzulia Basque Country is the toughest of the race and likely the most decisive. It's a day in the mountains packed with tough climbs which will decide the overall classification. Jonas Vingegaard will attempt to defend his lead against the likes of Mikel Landa and Enric Mas.
The queen stage. Many of the days throughout the week can see dangerous attacks, but the climbers will really come into their own in the classic Eibar day. It won't end with a climb but has seven categorized ascents. 3300 meters of climbing in just 138 kilometers to go. The start of the day sees three ascents: 2.6Km at 6.2%, 5.1Km at 7.4% and 9.6Km at 5.6%, all within just over 30 kilometers and all with gradients that go well above it's average.
Estimated start and time times for Stage 6: 15:00 - 18:30CET
The descents are technical, it wouldn't be the first time if the peloton split outside of the climbs themselves. The toughest climb of the day will soon arrive: Krabelin (4.4Km; 10%). It will be present halfway through the stage, it's 5 kilometers at 9.5% but the gradients reach much higher numbers. It's middle has a whole kilometer at 15%, it's a savage climb that ends with 68 kilometers to the finish.
Following it is a small descent and some rolling terrain. Three hilltops follow: 3.3Km at 6.9% (45Km to go); 700 meters at 11% (41Km to go) and 1Km at 6.4% (38Km to go). The quick succession will be complicated, but the real problem is that these climbs are sandwiched between the most important two of the day, and should only contribute to the fatigue.
It's in Izua (4.1Km; 9.1%) that the main moves are expected, it's the penultimate climb which summits with 27 kilometers to go. This is the final tough ascent of the race. Hard enough to create serious differences and close enough to the finish to go all-out. After six hilly days all can be turned around here.
In Urkaregi, which is 5.3Km at 4.5%, some differences can still be made. It's unlikely that attacks can succeed as the climb is literally half the gradient of the previous, but with the fatigue built up everything's possible. Above attacking, it's a place to consolidate previously established gaps, the climb summits with 13.2 kilometers to go.
From there on it isn't smooth sailing to the finish but the descent won't be as technical as some ridden before in the day. The race will finish in the center of Eibar, a very aesthetic finale to what is one of the most prestigious races of the year.
The Weather
As it's been throughout the whole week, it remains perfect weather for racing. Sunny and constant, unlikely the typical Basque weather.
The Favourites
Jonas Vingegaard - In the lead Vingegaard seems comfortable. Out of all the stages in the race this is also the one that'll suit him better and I expected him to come to his own. In the climbs he can't be surprised, it isn't certain in the descents but he also has Attila Valter who should be able to support him until the race blows up.
Mikel Landa - Landa is looking in tremendous form and the climbs here will be nice for him. He's showing his best legs and will certainly go on the attack. How effective it'll be remains to be seen, but either ways I think he would be happy with second in the GC.
Enric Mas - Mas has been alright but not at his very best. In this terrain he should be able to be more prominent however. It will be tough to grab the GC win at this point but he may be a very important ally to someone.
David Gaudu - Paris-Nice was a great display of power, but Gaudu isn't at the same level here. He will very likely be there within contention, his sprint may be helpful in a possible fight for the stage win but it won't be easy to create the differences on the uphill.
Ion Izagirre - Winner of the stage in these roads last year, Izagirre will be motivated to repeat the feat. He recently won at the GP Miguel Indurain which was a great sign. He won't have the weather on his side but he shows that at his best level he can still contend with the best in this field.
Other riders have shown the potential and should also be in the fight. Mattias Skjelmose and Sergio Higuita for example should both be able to climb right up there and also sprint as well as anyone else on their best day, but will need their moves to be consolidates. Felix Gall is also a strong rider for the punchy efforts and sprints, but it is not certain that he will keep thriving in these tough ascents.
Simon Yates could be a wildcard to stir things up, Jayco has worked a lot but has not brought the benefit from it, he's got nothing to lose and may attack from far. Brandon McNulty, Rigoberto Uran and James Knox will also be wildcards for the stage win as they've shown good climbing form recently, whilst Daniel Martínez may be a joker if he finds his best legs back.
Prediction Itzulia Basque Country 2023 stage 6:
*** Jonas Vingegaard, Mikel Landa
** Enric Mas, David Gaudu, Mattias Skjelmose
* Sergio Higuita, Brandon McNulty, Simon Yates, Felix Gall, Ion Izagirre
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
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