PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 19 - Isaac del Toro vs Richard Carapaz vs Simon Yates on 5000 climbing-meter stage

The Corsa Rosa is the first Grand Tour of the season and this year it will include a start in a nation that will for the first time in it's history host a Grand Tour, Albania; and also several mountain stages in it's second half whilst the first half will feature some tricky stages including one that goes through a lot of the Strade Bianche course. We preview stage 19.

Stage 19 will take place in the Valle d'Aosta and truly it will feature what the region has the most, technical climbs and descents, all of them long and steep but very similar in it's characteristics. It's trully a very difficult day with climbing right from the start, but then also three very long and difficult ascents on the Col Tzecore, Col de Saint Pantaleon and finally Col de Joux, each of them 16 kilometers in length and averaging around 7%. A day of endurance and where in the final week huge differences can be created.

Right at the start of the day there is an 11-kilometer long climb at 4.65 which starts after only 3 kilometers of racing. A lot can happen here, and the GC teams will want to send riders up the road before entering the brutal terrain. Tzecore ends with 99 kilometers to go, Saint-Pantaléon ends with 56 kilometers to go (the first descent extremely technical, the second extremely fast in it's majority).

Then comes the Col de Joux which, because it's the last of the difficult ascents, should see the main attacks. 15.1 kilometers at 6.9% will be a proper ascent to split the entire race and the climb ends with 20 kilometers to go.

Before arriving in Champoluc however there will still be another small ascent to Antagnod, one that has nothing to do with the previous ascents, but will prolong the spectacle and who knows, perhaps even create further differences at a point of the stage where most will already be on their knees. The climb is 9.5 kilometers long at 4.6%, but the second half has ramps going up to 11%. The climb ends with 4.6 kilometers to go before the downhill finish.

A warm day in the Alps, sunny too. The wind won't play much of a role, but we may have some headwind until the base of the first very hard climb and then a crosswind in the final ascent which does not help attacks.

Isaac del Toro - The main question of the day is big yet quite simple: Will he survive? 4900 meters of climbing and the ascents are long... I do not doubt his form remains formidable, and his fatigue is also being managed well. What it can come down to really is the ability to climb in the high mountains where a couple riders may be better than him on such a day. His lead is now of 41 seconds over Carapaz, it exists, and UAE do continue to have the strongest team around him. One good thing for him is that we shouldn't have a team pushing all day long to wear him out, but there are absolutely no certainties that he will resist once the serious attacks begin.  

Richard Carapaz - The man with the confidence and the big climbing legs, after what we've seen in Brentonico. EF have enough men to put in the hurt on Del Toro, even if momentarily. In this terrain though there is nowhere to hide, if Carapaz has better climbing legs than Del Toro, and this is likely to be the case, then he will certainly be able to make the difference. I do put Carapaz jumping into the pink jersey as the most likely scenario, but for that he also has to remain as fresh as he's shown over the last few stages.

Simon Yates - Inbetween the two I'd say. I think Yates will benefit from the more steady and long climbs, but equally I don't think he can make the difference to Carapaz even if Del Toro is distanced. Visma do have a strong team and great tactics over the past few days, which can be used to help the Briton either attack or defend himself in that finale.

Derek Gee - Gee remains under the radar but an overall victory is actually still possible. Of course, not easy, but his form has been improving in the absolute perfect way and he looks to be going into this massive stage with tremendous legs. Lacking the very high gradients, I believe Gee can make a real impact and potentially jump into the podium already here.

GC Fight - A few other GC men will be looking out for their result. Giulio Pellizzari looks stupendous and BORA looks highly motivated now also with a win from Nico Denz. They have all reasons to attack, as a Top5 is still possible for the Italian if he continues to ride like this. Damiano Caruso will defend, but Egan Bernal - if he has the legs to do so - could also try and attack. Do not discount Einer Rubio either, who's been steadily climbing up the GC and looks to be once again on his very best form right when it matters the most.

From a breakaway, which is possible, we can have a stage winner. The uphill start means that quite a lot of climbers will be able to get in the front group and perhaps without wasting too much energy, and as we've seen, rival teams to UAE will likely prioritize having riders in front, instead of trying to pace the peloton. UAE does not have rival teams with depth to really destroy it, in all sincerity.

Romain Bardet, Lorenzo Fortunato, Christian Scaroni, Afonso Eulálio and Daniel Martínez are my five main men for a victory in this scenario, if it comes to be. All have put in brilliant performances in this final week, and appearing fresh up to stage 17 is a great indicator for the riders who still have the legs and head to battle for stage wins in the final days of the race.

Nicolas Prodhomme, Louis Meintjes, Wilco Kelderman, James Knox, Nairo Quintana, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda, Wout Poels, Chris Harper, Pello Bilbao, Filippo Zana, Florian Stork, Yannis Voisard and Carlos Verona are also options. Albeit unlikely, we could see a surprise comeback from riders like Antonio Tiberi or Thymen Arensman who are incredible riders but have suffered in the past few days; or a few GC outsiders such as Max Poole, Tom Pidcock or Davide Piganzoli try to sneak in the breakaway and then coincidentally also discuss the stage win alongside others.

*** Richard Carapaz, Derek Gee, Romain Bardet
** Simon Yates, Isaac del Toro, Giulio Pellizzari, Lorenzo Fortunato, Afonso Eulálio
* Egan Bernal, Einer Rubio, Damiano Caruso, Christian Scaroni, Daniel Martínez, Wilco Kelderman, Wout Poels, Pello Bilbao, Carlos Verona, Max Poole

Pick: Richard Carapaz

How: Solo win and jumping into the race lead.