Stage 17 of the Giro d'Italia is a very very hard day. It is a day fully within the Alps with several climbs that begin right at the start of the stage. We preview a day that shouldn't be important for the Giro's victory battle, but could prove quite exciting for the places behind and the stage win.
Stage 17 is another contender for queen stage. 154 kilometers with five tough ascents. It is the third consecutive high mountains day and dare I say the hardest of them all? It is a day with no flat roads, just up and down mountains throughout several hours.
The riders start off the day immediately with a tough climb. The Passo Sella is 8.9 kilometers long at 7.4%, the stage starts at it's base and it goes up to 2244 meters of altitude. A lot can already happen here, strong climbers and GC contenders will try to take advantage and set off from the peloton.
A long descent follows, into the second of the day which is also the longest. The Passo Rolle is 19.8 kilometers long at 4.8%, with a rather flat section in it's middle, and two steeper ones in it's start and finale. Finishing with 90 kilometers to go, it gives way to a technical descent which leads straight into climb number 3.
This will be the Passo Gobbera, the easiest of the day's ascents; it's 5.7 kilometers at 5.8% and ends with 58 kilometers to go. A warm-up for the final mountain of the day. This will be the Passo Brocon, but the ascent will be climbed through two different sides.
The first of which ends with 31 kilometers to go. It's 13.2 kilometers at 6.4%, a difficult climb but taking into consideration the difficulty of the last one; it should still be somewhat of a warm-up.
The final climb, coinciding with the stage finish, is where the serious damage can be done. Through it's hardest side, this time around the Passo Brocon can make massive differences. The climb is 11.9 kilometers long at 6.5% but has a portion which is significantly harder.
The climb does not end at altitude but it does feature 4 kilometers at over 10%. This in itself could make huge differences, but it comes in the middle of the ascent. Attacks will come here, and there will still be a few kilometers before the finish line where they can grow even further.
The Weather
No wind but the riders will still find rough terrain. It will not be as cold, luckily, but the rain and grey skies are expected. Beyond the difficulty of the day, the rain will certainly make it even tougher and more important for the overall classification.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - The question, as in all the mountain days, is what will Pogacar want? Five wins in the bag now including today. It's safe to say he's gotten everything he wanted except for the overall win in Rome. No need for UAE to work or sacrifice themselves to get a third consecutive win. Today Movistar did a lot of work for the peloton to win and it was an easy stage to control. Pogacar's head is already partially at the Tour, and he did not even get up from the saddle during today's final climb - he looked inside his own limit. But he doesn't need to burn more matches than necessary.
GC Fight - Daniel Martínez climbed to second place and so we've got two interesting battles within the Top5. Martínez has 22 seconds over Geraint Thomas and the two look very matched. Today Thomas struggled but I expect a better performance. Ben O'Connor sits behind Thomas by a minute and the podium is still possible, but none will risk before the final climb.
We've got Antonio Tiberi, happy with fifth and youth classification, also wanting a conservative race. Thymen Arensman is only 24 seconds behind, he could be important for INEOS tactics to get second place but that will not happen. He will do his own race and chase the white jersey. Other teams will not work. Movistar worked a lot today but didn't really benefit from it; still Einer Rubio took time back on Romain Bardet and Filippo Zana in the fight for 7th. Jan Hirt, Lorenzo Fortunato, Michael Storer, Davide Piganzoli and Domenico Pozzovivo could think of a breakaway to climb a few spots - it's not like getting in a breakaway is risky on a day like this where there is climbing from start to finish.
The victory can very well go to the breakaway. That was today's fate but the stage was cut and was easy to control. Tomorrow that is not the case, UAE will not try to control the front and with a hard climb right from the start, the strong climbers can go up the road likely without much of a fight.
Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale will want to support O'Connor in the fight for the podium but between Alex Baudin, Valentin and Aurélien Paret-Peintre, one of them one of them at least will have freedom and should be able to fight for the stage win. We've got Nairo Quintana who was absolutely flying on stage 15... He doesn't have the same altitude here but with so much climbing and rain he could do very well and is motivated. Damiano Caruso, another veteran is also on rising form and loves days (and weather) like this; could be equally as dangerous. Youngster Giulio Pellizzari, who was close to winning today, is the other big card in my head to win this stage as he has really been hovering over a breakthrough triumph.
This is a day for the pure climbers, but those in great form in particular. Georg Steinhauser is definitely one of them after his performance over the weekend; and you can also consider the likes of Nicola Conci, Christian Scaroni, Attila Valter, Simon Geschke, Pelayo Sanchez and Kevin Vermaerke. And who knows, if UAE gives Rafal Majka (which is quite possible) he should also be within a chance to win.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 17:
*** Valentin Paret-Peintre, Nairo Quintana, Tadej Pogacar
** Damiano Caruso, Giulio Pellizzari
* Daniel Martínez, Antonio Tiberi, Geraint Thomas, Einer Rubio, Georg Steinhauser, Michael Storer, Nicola Conci, Davide Piganzoli, Aurelien Paret-Peintre, Rafal Majka
Pick: Nairo Quintana
Regione Piemonte will host the Grande Partenza of the Giro d'Italia 2024! Opening stage on 4 May with start in Venaria Reale. La Regione Piemonte ospiterà la Grande Partenza 2024! Si parte il 4 maggio da Venaria Reale. 👇Thread 👇 #Giroditalia #GrandePartenza @regionepiemonte
