PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 3 - Pedersen and Matthews the main favourites for hilly day

Preview. After a time-trial and a stressful sprint stage where a crash caused GC differences, stage 3 will be another tense day at the Giro d'Italia. It will be hilly and perhaps favour a third type of rider this race, but it should make for a spectacular finale.

The third stage of the Giro d'Italia will see the race head south and include a few hills. It's a punchy stage with some climbing towards the end into Melfi, but should end in a reduced bunch sprint. Most of the day is in fact flat, it is very much a transition stage with 213 kilometers on the menu. The breakaway won't have an easy task to succeed as the first 175 will be fully hitting the wind with no descents to rest and no climbs to push on.

Estimated start and finish times for Giro d'Italia stage 3: 11:45-17:15CET

A draining day, but likely a calm one in the peloton. That is until the riders reach the two categorized climbs on the day. One is the Valico dei Laghi Di Monticchio which is 6.3 kilometers long at 6.4%. There is a very small flat section inbetween climbs, with the second half being the Valica La Croce which is an extra 3.1 kilometers at 6%. They finish with 33 and 26 kilometers to go respectively.

It is a traditional first-week Giro stage. It's a very open day where some sprinters who can climb should be the favourites, but it very much inspires late attacks. A lot can happen here, the descent isn't steep but it is technical, and until the very last kilometers the roads are anything but straight. It isn't easy to bring back attacks in this terrain.

Eventually the riders pass by the center of Melfi but the finale is outside of the center. They head into an explosive finish, the roads are rolling and the finishing straight sees a 4% gradient that is far from a pure sprint. Several roundabouts and corners, with 1.1 kilometers to go, 750 and 300 meters to go. The final corner is quite sharp, positioning is crucial and from that corner onwards it's a full-on sprint.

The Weather

A slight breeze from the northwest but one that shouldn't affect the day. There are small chances of some rain, it isn't guaranteed but it could make the finale even more tense than expected.

The Favourites

Mads Pedersen - The crash today won't have affected him. The time-trial showed Pedersen in good form, if there aren't serious attacks he should be able to make it over the climb. Trek and Jayco will likely be allies when it comes to bringing this one back to a sprint and I think the duo will be the main favourites.

Michael Matthews - Although Matthews hasn't shown something specific that proved his form this is the ideal kind of day for him. Jayco will no doubt be towards the front and push the pace if necessary. He will resist the climbs, but the question is always if then the peloton can control things into a sprint. However the final kilometers are not that well suited to attackers and this early in the race there won't be breakaway-hungry opportunists. Sprinter teams are full and should be able to put on a chase.

This is the day of the Giro where the Italian second-line sprinters also come to their own. The likes of Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli used to win stages like this, I would not be surprised in any way to see the likes of Vincenzo Albanese and FIlippo Fiorelli do the same as leaders of ProTeam outfits. Andrea Vendrame will be another Italian figure, Jonathan Milan can't be overruled as he can climb and has put in the work before the Giro, Magnus Cort Nielsen isn't in good form but should be able to resist the climbs, and on his best day so can Kaden Groves. All can prove to be allies in the run-up to the line, and all do stand chances of taking the win.

Then on the other side you have the climbers who can sprint. The final ramp does feature some gradient and unfortunately for the rest, both Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel can seriously sprint. Bonifications will be small rewards, but they may give it a shot.

There will be puncheurs with a strong sprint who can fight for the win here under the right conditions. Patrick Konrad, Simon Clarke, Diego Ulissi, Aurélien Paret-Peintre and Stefano Oldani are the best cases that come up, João Almeida and Tao Geoghegan Hart could also be in the mix.

As for late attacks, they can certainly succeed, despite the - in my opinion - not ideal conditions. Time-trialists such as Filippo Ganna and Stefan Küng will be very dangerous and have pink on their mind. The likes of Samuele Battistella, Ben Healy, Brandon McNulty and Andreas Leknessund can be extremely dangerous if they find themselves away from the peloton, whilst others such as Filippo Zana and Stephen Williams could try their luck on the climbs.

Prediction Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 3:

*** Mads Pedersen, Michael Matthews
** Magnus Cort Nielsen, Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Patrick Konrad
* Andrea Vendrame, Vincenzo Albanese, Filippo Fiorelli, Simon Clarke, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Bean Healy, Filippo Ganna

Pick: Mads Pedersen