PREVIEW | Flèche Wallone 2023 - Tadej Pogacar the man to beat at the Mur de Huy

Preview. On the 19th of April the riders will take on the second of the World Tour Ardennes classics. It is the day of the Flèche Wallone, one of the most reputably one-day races in pro cycling which has it's finale atop the famous Mur de Huy.

193 kilometers and 3100 meters of climbing. That is the data you’ve got for this race, it is one that doesn’t feature any long ascent however it does feature a lot of rolling roads throughout the entire route. It's a classic that suits the pure puncheurs and also some climbers, a race which is frequently quite controlled and sees a sprint finish up the very steep ramps of the final climb.

Estimated start and finish times for Flèche Wallone: 11:50-16:30CET.

This however has proven to be over the year a race which is only decided in the final climb, hence most favourites will just ride as conservatively as possibly until that point whilst their teams to the work to control the race. The race is decided on a circuit, in which the riders will ride 3 laps of with 31 kilometers in distance.

In the final lap we’ve got the Côte d’Ereffe with 2Km at 5.8%, which summits with 19.5 kilometers to go. As for the Côte de Cherave it summits with a mere 6 kilometers to go which may open the race a bit more. It’s 1.5Km at 6.9% and features gradients in the double digits, it’s no easy feature. A small descent and fast run-up to Huy will follow, until the final climb.

A grind, an ascent that gets steeper all the way up. It’s a pure anaerobic effort, and is ideal for the lightweight puncheurs. The ascent is 1.2 kilometers long at 10.3% and gets steeper and steeper towards the finish line. It's an effort that is gradually upped all the way. The fight into the bottom of the climb is every year very intense, and once there it's usually a lead up into the spring. The final 300 meters are very steep and so riders frequently try slightly earlier, but a long-range attack is unlikely to succeed.

The Weather

Strong northeastern wind. The Flandrien classics are over but the weather will keep playing a very important role. This is strong enough to create echelons and right before entering the final circuit there will be a very dangerous section with block crosswinds. The Côte d'Ereffe will have a block tailwind and Cherave is similar. The Mur is mostly covered so there won't be effects there but I can assure it's you almost guaranteed there will be echelon attempts with a team attack right after the summit as it's a very exposed crosswind section.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar - The man to beat. In reality, in several participations, Pogacar has never finished above ninth. That isn't exactly the best set of results for a rider who is termed the ultimate favourite, but after having won Amstel - a race that isn't as well suited to him - in such way it really is hard to see anyone directly beating him. Crosswinds shouldn't be a problem for him, and only if he's in a not-so-good day should he be realistically beaten at the Mur de Huy by this competition.

Tom Pidcock - The competition is strong though don't get me wrong, but it lacks the type of rider such as Valverde and Alaphilippe were in this climb, a 100% fit. In my eye Tom Pidcock is actually quite ideal for the ascent being a very lightweight rider who is very explosive but can handle a grinding in-the-saddle effort, however you never know. Without the distance - which he's complained of recently - however Fleche could be in the cards for him, and he can definitely compete with Pogacar in a good day.

Movistar - Movistar have Gonzalo Serrano, Alex Aranburu and Ruben Guerreiro, all strong riders who can help with tactical attacks or positioning throughout the day in critical moments. This year I do believe attacks can pose some sort of danger and Movistar has several cards. Enric Mas will be the biggest however. He beat Pogacar at the Giro dell'Emilia last year which will be a motivating factor. The Spaniard comes off a strong performance at Itzulia and since late last year he's also been flying up these steep explosive climbs.

BORA - Jai Hindley positively surprised me at Amstel, racing for a strong result in a race I didn't think would suit him. Hence I can consider him a contender for a podium here if he gets it all right, he'd love more explosive climbs but on good form he can definitely hold a high pace up the final climb. Sergio Higuita is perhaps the best suited BORA rider, very explosive and lightweight, on his best day honestly I think he could match Pogacar at his best in this climb.

Bahrain - Bahrain have plenty cards but no big hitter I'd say. This isn't criticism, it's just the fact that in recent years a few superstars have emerged but only a few teams get to have them. It'll be difficult for the team to directly beat the competition so they should play with their numbers, either attack in the winds or make the race very attacked. Mikel Landa, Pello Bilbao, Matej Mohoric, Gino Mäder and Wout Poels all have the possibility of doing some damage in the race.

EF Education - Ben Healy was the revelation of Amstel Gold Race and is in terrific form. I wouldn't expect a similar ride here, it's a very different race where it's in the climbs that the results will be decided, but he can try to surprise early. Neilson Powless mainly, but also Esteban Chaves can try to do something in these climbs, they've shown good form recently.

Groupama - David Gaudu is the man to keep an eye on. Valentin Madouas and Kévin Geniets make for outsiders but I think they should focus on positioning for the Frenchman who was second at Paris-Nice this year and is a very strong fit for the Mur de Huy. A podium is definitely possible.

Quick-Step - Julian Alaphilippe was a perfect fit for this race but he's lost his edge in recent years. With no Remco Evenepoel to attempt to surprise here too it's a team playing with their second cards. Nevertheless they are talented, Andrea Bagioli, Mauro Schmid and James Shaw come from a strong Itzulia whilst Ilan van Wilder could also be in the fight for the Top10 if he finds himself in a good day with no doubs.

Michael Woods - Israel come with with several talented riders such as Simon Clarke, Krists Neilands and Nick Schultz but they will probably go all-out on Michael Woods. The man who loves the brutal steep gradients is a fan of the Fleche Wallone, he's finished third, fourth and sixth in the last three editions and was got back to good form at the Volta a Catalunya.

Andreas Kron - An inconsistent rider, but on a good day he can ride with the best. He showed this at Amstel Gold Race where he finished fourth. If he shows the same legs this Wednesday he's definitely a contender to take one of the Top10 spots.

Trek - Segafredo - Bauke Mollema has finished five times on the Top10 of this classic, however the last of which was in 2019. He and Giulio Ciccone may be weapons for an early attack, as is Mattias Skjelmose who put on a strong display at Amstel Gold Race. An open team with some outsiders, they can play out interesting strategies.

Alexey Lutsenko - The Kazakh is back to form and at the Amstel Gold Race he put on a strong performance. Having finished fifth he showed his current form on the short and explosive climbs, and here he is once again expected to ride around near the best.

Tiesj Benoot & Attila Valter - Jumbo-Visma lack their big leaders for this race but come in with Tiesj Benoot and Attila Valter. At Amstel they missed the main moves but here the race is expected to be more compact. Both on paper are contenders for a Top10, on the road it will be decided if one will have sole leadership, but good things can be expected of a team that's thrived over the spring.

Cofidis - Cofidis come in with several quality riders. Both Victor Lafay and Jesús Herrada have won classics over the weekend in France with summit finishes, whilst Guillaume Martin also looked quite strong. They are joined by Ion Izagirre who is Fresh off a win at the GP Miguel Indurain and podium at Itzulia Basque Country to make for a surprisingly strong in-form team.

Benoît Cosnefroy - Sickness has hampered him at Amstel Gold Race. It was very bad timing for the Frenchman who had came onto his own recently and looked very sharp at Brabantse Pijl. He was second in 2020 so we know that this type of effort suits him quite well.

Warren Barguil, Mathieu Burgaudeau, Matteo Sobrero, Lorenzo Rota, Kobe Goossens, Tobias Johannessen, Robert Stannard, Soren Kragh Andersen, Romain Bardet and Roger Adrià are also possible outsiders for this race, could feature in the Top10 on a strong day or if they find themselves in the right group if the race does split up.

Prediction Fleche Wallone 2023:

*** Tadej Pogacar
** Tom Pidcock, Enric Mas, Sergio Higuita,
* Jai Hindley, Mikel Landa, Neilson Powless, Ben Healy, David Gaudu, Michael Woods, Mattias Skjelmose, Alexey Lutsenko, Tiesj Benoot, Victor Lafay, Ion Izagirre

Pick: Tadej Pogacar