PREVIEW & FAVOURITES | Vuelta a España 2025 stage 4 - Can we have a first winning breakaway?

Stage 4 of the Vuelta a Espana will be a tricky day. On paper we will have bunch sprint, now in France; but we preview a day where there are several climbs early on in the Alps where we may have dangerous attacks going up the road.

The race leaves Italy to enter French territory, starting in Susa and finishing in Voiron. First part of the stage very hard, with 3 climbs and then downhill to the finish. A breakaway could form at the start or it could be a sprint.

The riders start the stage very close to the base of the Colle delle Finestre and very quickly take on a 5.7-kilometer long climb at 5.6%. With no real downhill, shortly after will come a 8.4-kilometer ascent at 5.9%. The riders will come down, now on French roads, and then ascend the Col du Lautaret (whose summit could lead to the summit of the Col du Galibier in an alternative route). The climb is not overly difficult, around 14 kilometers at 4%, but it does go above the 2000 meters of altitude and all this climbing will hurt the legs of a few sprinters.

But the riders will then go down all of this altitude, and more. In fact 1800 meters below is where the grand majority of the final third of the stage will take place, which means this part of the stage will go by very quickly and cutting down gaps won't be easy.

A sprint, if it decides the stage, will be quite technical and somewhat uphill too. The final corner comes with around 300 meters to go, and there will be quite a few locations where the group can stretch out. The final straight will have around 4%, making it another sprint that will not be pure at all.

Not much to note, except for the very hot finale we will have. The riders are going into the 30's after a few quite chilly summer days.

Mads Pedersen - Hard to put him out of the race. The day suits him quite well and the uphill sprint means he will have the upper hand on Philipsen. Lidl-Trek have all reasons to try and control the stage and then bring it to a sprint. Pedersen showed today he does have the form, only the finale was more difficult then he wished for. Here it's one for the sprinters and he will be the man to beat.

Jasper Philipsen - Philipsen on the other hand proved today that he is still in poor form as I believed. There will be quite some climbing here and so he is likely to suffer, but even then I expect the peloton to head compact into the finale. But the uphill kicker to the line means it's not going to be about pure speed as in stage 1, and also means positioning will be easier for Pedersen. Still a big favourite but the Belgian will have a hard time.

Sprint - The truth is no-one is beating Pedersen in regular conditions, unless Philipsen suddenly improves quite a lot. But there are men to take into consideration for a podium fight, Orluis Aular being the most obvious case as he's shown tremendous legs over the opening days of the race. Casper van Uden and Ethan Vernon will be looking for a more pure sprint whilst on the opposite side Bryan Coquard, Tom Pidcock, Jordan Labrosse and Filippo Ganna would like a more difficult one. Madis Mihkels and Jente Biermans are men to consider as well, although at the same time there'll be plenty others certainly.

Can a breakaway succeed? - Yes, although unfortunately we see more and more riders take it easy in the first days of a Grand Tour. So we might not have many riders give it a go... But on paper with a mountain stage already behind us, clear gaps created, and an uphill start, we should have so many riders and teams trying their luck. Ideally with some climbing legs early on, but mostly rouleurs or classics specialists because they need explosivity in this finale. With a red jersey possibly being handed out too as Visma won't care to spend energy on a day like this, we could see some strong climbers in action too.

I will name quite a few men that I expect to see trying and within a realistic shot of a stage win: Javier Romo, Kelland O'Brien, Marco Frigo, Alec Segaert, Bruno Armirail, Matteo Sobrero, Chris Harper, Mauri Vansevenant, Magnus Sheffield, Alessandro Verre, Stefan Küng, Nans Peters, Rémi Cavagna, Eddie Dunbar and Nico Denz.

*** Mads Pedersen
** Orluis Aular, Ethan Vernon, Jasper Philipsen
* Casper van Uden, Bryan Coquard, Tom Pidcock, Filippo Ganna, Bruno Armirail, Magnus Sheffield, Stefan Küng, Nans Peters, Nico Denz

Pick: Mads Pedersen

How: Bunch sprint.