PREVIEW & FAVOURITES | Vuelta a España 2025 stage 18 - Will protests allow for decisive Vingegaard-Almeida TT battle?

Stage 18 of the Vuelta a España will be the race's sole individual time-trial. We preview the stage which will take place on the 11th of September, and is estimated to start and finish at around 14:10CET and 18:30CET. There are protests organized for this stage which runs risk of not going through to the finish, but if it does we should have a very important day where Jonas Vingegaard and João Almeida will be the most important men to keep under attention.

The race's only individual time-trial will take place in Valladolid. It will be a short one, only 27 kilometers in distance and completely flat, but it could lead to important differences. With only one more stage where the GC can be turned, this is essentially the final very decisive stage - as Bola del Mundo will see more action similar to that of the previous mountain days.

*UPDATE: The route has been cut to only 12 kilometers due to protests.

It's not the simplest of time-trials however, definitely not one with the very long sections where the specialists can make the difference, but instead of a lot of it takes place within the city and will have lots of corners where you can rest and take a breath.

Some decently strong wind coming from the west, but it won't make much of a difference on the outcome of the day. Most of the time-trial is urban and there are lots of direction changes.

Stage win fight - Yes we are going to have Jonas Vingegaard and João Almeida fighting for the stage win, but their priority will be the stage win. Neither has looked at their best at El Morredero and I think that with the specialists present in this race, we won't have a re-run of the Tour de France where the GC fight was simultaneously the TT win fight.

We have some men that have barely been seen in the race so far as is the case for example with none other than Filippo Ganna, whom I can only imagine has been saving himself for this stage, where he can return to the big wins. Stefan Küng, Daan Hoole, Alec Segaert and Bruno Armirail are also quite strong riders who can definitely fight for victory as they are specialists in the discipline; whilst the likes of Jay Vine, Juan Ayuso, Mads Pedersen, Antonio Tiberi, Marco Frigo, Rémi Cavagna, Mikkel Bjerg and Magnus Sheffield are also strong competitors who can on their best day surprise into a stage win.

GC battle - Vingegaard starts the stage 50 seconds ahead of Almeida, and I believe that if any meaningful differences are to be seen between the two, they will favour the red jersey. I do think that they will be very evenly matched however and that they will go into Bola del Mundo with around a minute between each other.

You have Matteo Jorgenson in 10th place who will likely gain minutes on several of the men ahead of him, but I don't think he is within reach of anyone. All of the podium and Top5 contenders are very modest time-trialists, which is refreshing in a Grand Tour I must say, as nowadays the best climbers are also the best time-trialists and they are simply head and shoulders above everyone else.

Tom Pidcock has 36 seconds over Jai Hindley and it will be interesting to see which way it goes, and if either Giulio Pellizzari, Felix Gall or Matthew Riccitello can surprise against the clock and win time on the competition. Between these five men, anything can be expected.

*** Filippo Ganna, Daan Hoole, Jay Vine
** Jonas Vingegaard, João Almeida, Stefan Küng, Matteo Jorgenson
* Alec Segaert, Bruno Armirail, Mads Pedersen, Juan Ayuso, Antonio Tiberi, Marco Frigo, Mikkel Bjerg, Magnus Sheffield

Pick: Filippo Ganna